Son of If You Can Draw a Straight Line . . .
- Thread starter dbphoenix
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It was a difficult day for me as well. After the two failed continuations, I lost some confidence and become a little over-conservative. Seeing my chart after all's been said and done, it seems like I began looking for reasons to stay out of the trades I was seeing.
However, its difficult to know if that is the case or not, especially since some hindsight bias inevitably sets in now that I know they would've worked out.
Interesting day, nonetheless.
Niko,
I think the failure of hinge breakout at around 80 was the correct point to focus on. Using the straight line method identified in this thread that would have been an easy short after a retracement.
What needs to be identified is the reason short wasn't initiated around 76 somewhere. The price behaviour around 80 and the presence of hinge caused some delay in action and the meat of the move was already gone by the time lower shorts came into play. Hinge failure usually goes the other way as well and it's something to keep in mind.
Gringo
I think the failure of hinge breakout at around 80 was the correct point to focus on. Using the straight line method identified in this thread that would have been an easy short after a retracement.
What needs to be identified is the reason short wasn't initiated around 76 somewhere. The price behaviour around 80 and the presence of hinge caused some delay in action and the meat of the move was already gone by the time lower shorts came into play. Hinge failure usually goes the other way as well and it's something to keep in mind.
Gringo
I still feel fairly inexperienced in understanding how price usually behaves during and after a hinge. As we can see from my chart, I was definitely hesitant to trade in the aftermath of the hinge during the open, because I didn't feel confident that I understood what was happening.
I was thinking about a potential short around 76, but usually refrain from entering in a place where price has spent a lot of time passing back and forth through recently. However, perhaps I have been lumping hinges into my typical understanding of regular trading ranges, when there are slight differences between the two that would be beneficial for me to understand.
Would you say that a hinge like this potentially causes a "reset" of sorts to it's range after price breaks out of the hinge? I know that context is heavily involved, and price doesn't always behave according to set rules, but would it be correct to say that price is less likely to get caught up in congestion again around the same area after a hinge breaks than it would be if it was a typical bounce off of the upper bound of a typical trading range?
Clearly that was the case today; price had little trouble passing down through the entire range without getting caught up anywhere after the hinge broke and price failed to convincingly penetrate the opening high.
I merely lurk this thread. I don't use this method. With that told...
These posts have deformed into perfectionism, rather than trading a system.
Perfectionism is fear. Fear of loss (lack of perfection) overrules greed for profit. Perfectionism is not a usable trait for trading success.
Niko... "days like this" (whatever that means) are known only in hindsight, not real time. Back to the drawing board. Perfectionism has taken hold.
Heroic... Lost some confidence. Reasons to stay out. Difficult to know. All your words, your thinking. Perfectionism has taken hold.
Good luck
After making many mistakes, i finally realized that i was trading the market i was hoping to have in my mind but not the market in front of me i am actually seeing; also i was thinking too much about what i wanted to see so that i was not fully focusing on observing the market in front of me. This morning i am starting to change my mindset. At open, i just saw it as a trading range. Either trade the reversal at the boundary or not; donot think much except watching for demand and supply near the boundary. At 10:19 CST, i did one papertrade in NQ: after SL break, long the retracement. Although it was stopped out at 10:49CST then it moved in my favor, the experience taught me the value of what was said many times in this thread explicitly or implicitly: focusing on demand and supply and let the market to tell me what to do: http://i.imgur.com/yKjQfmD.jpg
note: chart in PST.
note: chart in PST.
There is certainly something to what you say.
Yet I seek perfection only in the sense of doing the ...assignment or homework of this way of thinking and trading. And that is not really for perfection, or getting to mechanical rote actions, but is for developing a routine.
And for knowing when I'm not in a routine and why!
Sorry, Niko.
Got too much going on, with too many threads open!
I always look into this thread, but my calls weren't meant for this thread on this occasion! as you were....
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