Son of If You Can Draw a Straight Line . . .

[niko]

Quote from Hooti:

Niko, lost the chat connection and it doesn't want to reconnect. Will try again later.

Same over here, just when it was turning interesting.

 

[niko]

The entries spotted today, but I guess the short at 10:26 was not valid as we would be trading into the chop again. Am I wrong?

 

[niko]

The chart.

 

[deaddog]

Quote from niko:

If anyone cares to chat.

http://stinto.net/en/chat.htm?refId=61cz7#

I must have been late, I was the only one there

 

[niko]

Quote from deaddog:

I must have been late, I was the only one there

It got disconnected.

 

[niko]

Quote from Gringo:

We all go at our own pace. Now that you have started to identify line breaks and retracements keep an eye out for being in a trading range or close to S/R.

1) SL/DL breaks + RET
2) S/R
3) TR

Used for entry: 1
@ 2, 1 = YES (aggressively)
@ 3, 1 = No (caution/give room/stay in if already in/time)

I don't know if this semi-mathematical exposition makes it easier for your statistical mind to digest it better.

Gringo

This is a keeper, thanks G.

 

[niko]

Quote from dbphoenix:

Actually S/R are not a factor here, exc in hindsight. The question is whether or not price can make a higher high or a lower low, in this case, 47 or 62. If it can't, then you may be in business.

Taking this into account of course.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from niko:

The entries spotted today, but I guess the short at 10:26 was not valid as we would be trading into the chop again. Am I wrong?

You want this to be a right/wrong, yes/no, 1/0 thing and it's not. You have to think about what you're looking at. At what level does price hesitate after the high?

 

[niko]

Quote from dbphoenix:

You want this to be a right/wrong, yes/no, 1/0 thing and it's not. You have to think about what you're looking at. At what level does price hesitate after the high?

Well, currently I am just trying to disect the process in order to understand where is it that I am not really getting this. I understand that it is not binary, but perhaps that is how I am wired so I try to understand it that way.

Now, regarding what I am looking at price hesitates at 75, but I can´t find anything special about that price, besides the fact that it was the LSL before the High. That is where I though RET and that is where the entry was defined. Later price again hesitates at 71, the top of the TR, before the high.

 

[llIHeroic]

niko,

I don't know how you are always finding entries where I see none, or at least finding them way earlier than I am comfortable with. If that works for you, then it shouldn't be a problem that other people aren't getting the same answers. If it isn't working for you, you can always wait for more information and just stay out of the ranges.

This morning struck me as fairly simple. Here is my first chart with annotations. Perhaps there are complexities that I've missed, but my primary goal is just to create a basic, functional, and coherent model of the current price action. Always looking to improve, comments are more than welcome.