Son of If You Can Draw a Straight Line . . .

[llIHeroic]

Wow, so I feel like these last few pages of discussion have finally caused a giant light-bulb to go off in my head. I have been feeling confused as to why I can't quite "get" the essence of this method. I still don't quite know why I wasn't understanding something so simple, and it seems to be a common problem with many newcomers to this thread as well.

I don't know why I have been making things so complicated, trying to absorb so much information and apply all of it to price action, focusing on the finer details of mechanical actions... the list goes on. I don't know why the steps listed here time and again kept going over my head.

I suppose maybe it is because the path to success in trading is much different than the path to success I've traveled multiple times in other areas of my life. With this, fear, uncertainty, and obstacles aren't things to be battled and overcome. They are indications that one has made a step in the incorrect direction, and a signal to go backwards a few steps; even to start at the very beginning of the path once again if necessary.

I don't need to acquire information and make a plan to defeat fear or impatience; I need to truly let go of them and develop a mindset that simply does not contain them. I have been misunderstanding what a plan is as well. Not a set of mechanical rules, but a guideline to apply one's understanding of the market to actual trading.

Anyway, I was just excited to feel like I have finally found another large piece of the puzzle that I have been trying to put together, and perhaps it will be useful to someone else.

As always, a huge thanks to DB as well as the other people participating in this discussion. Thank you for your continued patience though the whole learning process. I can understand where frustration or bewilderment might easily come in when you keep providing the same simple information over and over again and it just isn't being received.

 

[Huyang]

Thanks DB for your generous help.

Since i like to read it in a file instead of many posts, i put together a 18 pages pdf file to include major points in the discussion of this thread since Friday 10/11/2013, to be shared here just in case somebody may find it helpful.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from llIHeroic:

Wow, so I feel like these last few pages of discussion have finally caused a giant light-bulb to go off in my head. I have been feeling confused as to why I can't quite "get" the essence of this method. I still don't quite know why I wasn't understanding something so simple, and it seems to be a common problem with many newcomers to this thread as well.

As I've said more than once, the most common issue with beginners and not-so-beginners is the inability to tell up from down. Most try to sidestep this problem by using MAs or the ADX. But the underlying problem is a thorough lack of understanding of the law of demand and supply. Without that, there can be no understanding of support or resistance or trend. And without those, one is on trading crutches for as long as he stays in the game.

So it all comes back to supply and demand, hence the reboot of this thread.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from dbphoenix:

Perfect timing, and a perfect example of why this can't be made mechanical as these are exactly the kinds of questions that come up when someone tries to use all this mechanically.

Little to none of this will make sense unless one has spent a considerable amount of time observing without looking for "setups" and entry and exit ops, much less trading. Once one has put in that time, the answers to these questions will be self-evident. Whether one does it or not depends entirely on how badly he wants to be able to do this.

I see no point in moving on to a new day until one has benefited as much as can be benefited from the review. Otherwise one just makes the same mistakes over and over again (many people settle into this groove for years). So we'll stick with Friday until the process has become clear for at least those who are interested enough to have read the thread and who have at least begun the observation phase (those who haven't read the thread and/or haven't begun the observation phase or who think they've completed it will be urged to post less and read/think/study more). I see no point in going over yesterday since any ***** could not have failed to make money. Hard cheese, but at some point interested individuals just have to man up and do the work or find something else to occupy their time.

So, going back to the chart I posted eight or nine posts back*, what does one do? What is one's starting point? What does one look for? The NY RTH open is only minutes away. No more time to crap around. The lights are coming down. The curtain is opening. What's your first line?

*Which has now been reposted above. Just ignore the lines for now and do your own analysis and make your own judgements. Niko's lines may or may not be correct, or, while they may tell him what he wants/needs to know, they may not be informative to somebody else. This is the purpose of testing: what do you want and what do you need in order to get it?

As soon as someone responds to this -- other than Niko -- we can continue. If nobody else is interested, I have a lot of other things to do.

 

[Huyang]

Quote from dbphoenix:

As soon as someone responds to this -- other than Niko -- we can continue. If nobody else is interested, I have a lot of other things to do.

DB:
I will probably need to ask you questions after i read and digest the material again in the evening. Thank you very much again.

 

[llIHeroic]

I still need to observe price for a [long] while to feel any degree of confidence in my understanding of its movements, but I made an attempt for a review of Friday Morning.

 

[MadeMan]

Quote from dbphoenix:

As soon as someone responds to this -- other than Niko -- we can continue. If nobody else is interested, I have a lot of other things to do.

wait till , price decides wich way it wants to go



afk , till tomorrow

 

[dbphoenix]

There is a continuing misunderstanding regarding the similarities and differences between a demand/supply line and a trendline. D/S lines and trendlines can sometimes coincide, but they are not the same thing. They have different functions. A trendline shows trend. D/S lines track demand and supply. The latter therefore have to be tight or else they serve no purpose, at least none beyond what a trendline can do, and if one relies on trendlines to make trading decisions, he's going to be way out in the weeds long after price has turned.

Heroic has the right idea, though even his purple line is too far from price. These lines have to hug price or else they are of little value. There should be another line beginning at 0600 (0800) on 10/10 and tracking price up to the high at 1300 (1500). Plot that and you're closer to being ready to go.

Nearly all the difficulties you guys are having with this stem from looking at these charts in hindsight rather than in replay. Most of you are drawing lines that can't exist in real time, so exercises like this are a waste of your time.

 

[niko]

Quote from niko:

Thanks for the homework. Here is my analysis.

At the edge of the chart we were in a diagonal congestion, and price just bounced off the bottom of it. The S and D lines are still in effect and therefore nothing shows an impending change on the trend. I am not taking into consideration in the analysis the fact that we are above the 50% level of the movement from 3110.

So I guess I still dont get it...

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from niko:

So I guess I still dont get it...

Not necessarily. Be patient. It may take a month to get through this one morning, but perhaps something will stick.