Son of If You Can Draw a Straight Line . . .
- Thread starter dbphoenix
- Start date
- Status
Db,
I have a question related to your following exchange with Niko.
Db: what would the fearful do from 1010 on?
Niko: The fearful would have exited at the LH and short, perhaps at 10.75, that one would have been a 1 point loser.
Db: And where and when do you see a retracement that would allow for a short?
Niko: At 10:16
Db: That is incorrect. Since the demand line has been broken, the fearful will be out. If they then want to continue, they'll draw a supply line tracing the move down. No short will be taken because there is no retracement in this downmove.
At 1013, this line will be broken and a new demand line can be drawn to trace the progress of buyers to the upside, but there's no retracement for a long here either.
At 1016, this line is also broken, and the fearful look to draw a supply line tracking the progress of sellers. So far, no trades, just tracking.
What then?
Now, I understand that there would be no Ret for Short when the supply line is drawn till 10.13 and there would be no Ret for Long when the Demand Line is drawn till 10.16. But, at 10.16 or the bar after the Red Arrow, don't we have Supply Line from 3216 high at 10.05 to this lower high of 3214 and the move from 3209 to 3214 is therefore a Ret and thus a Short can now be taken.
What am I missing here?
Thanks.
I have a question related to your following exchange with Niko.
Db: what would the fearful do from 1010 on?
Niko: The fearful would have exited at the LH and short, perhaps at 10.75, that one would have been a 1 point loser.
Db: And where and when do you see a retracement that would allow for a short?
Niko: At 10:16
Db: That is incorrect. Since the demand line has been broken, the fearful will be out. If they then want to continue, they'll draw a supply line tracing the move down. No short will be taken because there is no retracement in this downmove.
At 1013, this line will be broken and a new demand line can be drawn to trace the progress of buyers to the upside, but there's no retracement for a long here either.
At 1016, this line is also broken, and the fearful look to draw a supply line tracking the progress of sellers. So far, no trades, just tracking.
What then?
Now, I understand that there would be no Ret for Short when the supply line is drawn till 10.13 and there would be no Ret for Long when the Demand Line is drawn till 10.16. But, at 10.16 or the bar after the Red Arrow, don't we have Supply Line from 3216 high at 10.05 to this lower high of 3214 and the move from 3209 to 3214 is therefore a Ret and thus a Short can now be taken.
What am I missing here?
Thanks.
Quote from niko:
Lets start the discussion, unless everyone is out having fun in columbus day.
At 7:14 we came out of a hinge, the first RET came at 7:20, the short entry was activated at 7:26, and from my perspective it should still be open.
Depends on how you draw the hinge, which is not a part of this phase. And your datafeed will determine how it looks. I would not have seen a retracement until 0730 and an entry around 0736.
Either way, these entries would be somewhat testicular. In one is reasonably confident and willing to give price a little room (a point), then he'd stay in. If he isn't confident, he'd be out due to the recoil. But this is one of the caveats about trading when so many people are still in bed.
It helps to remember, though, that one of the chief objectives of this is to keep losses to a minimum. Even if one exited due to one of these recoils, his losses would be a tiny fraction of what they would be otherwise if the recoils turned out to be reversals and he sits there, stunned, doing nothing.
The landscape offers a different view depending on whether one is in or waiting to get in. It shouldn't be that way, but psychologically there is a difference between an actual loss and a theoretical one. Like watching someone narrowly escape a collision as opposed to being in the car when it happens.
I have always wondered if I will ever be able to get over that, because that is one of the causes of my inability to hold a trade taken in a 2nd or third RET within what otherwise would be a perfectly valid trend for me (if entered at the beginning)
Right now we are again in a moment where I start thinking about closing and reversing the position or holding. And here I have a doubt about 50 %.
If I take into account the last significant (for me) RET at (8:12 to 8:17) and the next downswing, the upswing at 8:30 to 8:35 broke that downswing 50% level.
But if I see the whole trend that started around 7:10 the 50% is still intact (at 208.5)
- Status