Son of If You Can Draw a Straight Line . . .
- Thread starter dbphoenix
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As long as you're both on the topic, I could use some clarity on this subject as well. Do you wait until the 1m bar you are intending a potential entry on to be fully formed in order to place a stop above/below them, or do you place the stops while the bar is still active?
Also, I still seem to be having difficulties judging the relative strength of the current pressures acting upon price. In the attached chart, I clearly over-valued the strength of the Resistance provided by the small run of LH around 10:00 EST in relation to the momentum behind the entire up-move since the open. I thought that the Resistance was validated by the failure to reach it again around 10:30, but was clearly wrong.
Can anyone expand further on what it would have been more accurate to be thinking throughout this time period?
Also, I still seem to be having difficulties judging the relative strength of the current pressures acting upon price. In the attached chart, I clearly over-valued the strength of the Resistance provided by the small run of LH around 10:00 EST in relation to the momentum behind the entire up-move since the open. I thought that the Resistance was validated by the failure to reach it again around 10:30, but was clearly wrong.
Can anyone expand further on what it would have been more accurate to be thinking throughout this time period?
I would cancel the buy stop, because the RET did not go and instead this is turning into a TR, so I will reassess and avoid being sucked inside a TR on a fakeout, as would have been the case here. Am I wrong?
I think after sellers fail to make a LL at 9:28 one could place the entry once again at 69,75, but then again this is just applicable here, I would have (as I will) to run the backtesting with this new input, which I am sure will change a lot of things.
Yes, you're wrong. You're predicting the future, and it's all bad. You're assuming that everything is going to go wrong because it's gone wrong so often before. But every trade is unique, and the outcome is unforeseeable. You have not yet accepted those facts, which is one reason why you continue to have trouble.
A more productive response would be to decide in advance just exactly what you would do IF your buystop were triggered and IF price did not move upward as anticipated. At that point, you'd have a point at risk. If you weren't willing to risk a point, then you should cancel the buystop. However, none of this has anything to do with following price. If you were following price, you would note that it is holding above the low of the trading range and you would be in position for the opening move. But you're not following price; you're following what your fears tell you price MIGHT do and you're attempting to insulate yourself from those possible and unforeseeable consequences.
This is one of the questions that you'll have to answer for yourself through testing. If you can't trade without bars, plot a line chart.
None of this has anything to do with trend channels, "perceived resistance", or volume, so I can't help you with that. Since you should have been in the trade no later than 0930, preferably 0925, entering this late is going to entail problems. Nonetheless, if you were to plot the supply/demand lines as explained at the beginning of the thread and enter on retracements, none of what you've posted on your chart would be of any concern.
Thank you for responding to me. Let me see if I am understanding your instruction correctly. I will disregard volume since it does not pertain to this discussion or the thread. I have been trying to incorporate it due to references in the Wyckoff material and in the readings at TL, but perhaps it is a hindrance to me at this point.
I was curious about the stop entries since you and niko were discussing entry specifics and constants such as one point above the Retracement, but I will take your advice and continue to test. I assume the difference will be negligible with a correct understanding of the relevant S/R levels along with buying and selling pressure.
I've re-attached another chart with a bigger picture view, which I believe creates the relevant trend channel you were referring to. Is it disadvantageous to attempt to create a channel from the hourly? I notice on the first page of the thread that a channel is only created on the Weekly.
Perhaps I have been misunderstanding the rigidity of the intervals in their respective purposes. For your methodology, do we always make the trend channel in the weekly, look for pertinent S/R (3164 here) on the hourly, and watch how price interacts in the 1m interval?
Your comment about the irrelevance of the 'perceived resistance' I mentioned answered my question in part. Does it have nothing to do with the S/D lines since useful information about Supply Lines is always formed on larger intervals?
Thanks again for your patience in going over these things with me. It is perplexing, you make this sound so easy, and it seems like it is and that I am understanding it, only to find that for some reason the concepts continue to elude me on some level.
I was curious about the stop entries since you and niko were discussing entry specifics and constants such as one point above the Retracement, but I will take your advice and continue to test. I assume the difference will be negligible with a correct understanding of the relevant S/R levels along with buying and selling pressure.
I've re-attached another chart with a bigger picture view, which I believe creates the relevant trend channel you were referring to. Is it disadvantageous to attempt to create a channel from the hourly? I notice on the first page of the thread that a channel is only created on the Weekly.
Perhaps I have been misunderstanding the rigidity of the intervals in their respective purposes. For your methodology, do we always make the trend channel in the weekly, look for pertinent S/R (3164 here) on the hourly, and watch how price interacts in the 1m interval?
Your comment about the irrelevance of the 'perceived resistance' I mentioned answered my question in part. Does it have nothing to do with the S/D lines since useful information about Supply Lines is always formed on larger intervals?
Thanks again for your patience in going over these things with me. It is perplexing, you make this sound so easy, and it seems like it is and that I am understanding it, only to find that for some reason the concepts continue to elude me on some level.
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