Son of If You Can Draw a Straight Line . . .
- Thread starter dbphoenix
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Would some kind soul help Huyang out with a PM - my PM's are turned off, and I am not to mention that which shall not be named here.
Oh no. That which shall not be named has in the past being named usually leading to greater debates, consternation, and abuse of the innocent. More likely than not the slew of accusations and counter accusations have been so severe that perhaps there's a reason that which shall not be named now exists in an alternate continuum.
What this means for Huyang is to keep using the links he/she has for now and when the time is right, it shall be revealed to him by the lord himself that which he seekth so ardently. Not everyone needs to be a seeker to win at Quidditch.
Gringo
Hard to see how anyone could have failed to make a decent short today, given the story the market was telling.
I can't tell you how much fun I had reading those two posts.
Watch out for this guy ... he has many different names, but he's always the same ...
# 3 shows an interesting area at 3225, where the channel Supply line meets the Hinge Demand line.
During the session today I did not take the continuation entry here as I viewed the down swing to be extended, especially since it was close to the potential Support from the lows of the 2nd.
However, awareness of this confluence area may have shifted my read on further trend continuation. What dynamic do you think is taking place at this confluence?
First off, let me say this: When you ask me a question like "what dynamic do you think is taking place at this confluence?" you really threw me a bit
I'll admit that when I first read that my heart and confidence dropped a bit as all I could think was "Huh?" 
I finally figured out what you were asking, sort of, I guess. I'm not sure how to answer it except to say I was already short at that point, and I got more short when price broke lower after a brief retrace. My decision to exit my long ES when I did was in no small part due to the fact that the NQ has been the leader, the leader was overbought, and sellers were aggressive.
One other thing comes to mind: DbPhoenix frequently reminds us that the lines we draw, other than actual S&R at highs and lows, are much more "in our minds" than "in the market." So the "confluence" that you mention isn't really something I would have thought of. I mean, I drew the lines, and so I saw the lines intersecting, and I guess I must have judged that if price broke lower it would continue, as I did add to my shorts - but that was more because price was going down and the way it was falling than because it was "crossing" those lines.
I agree that the lines are just a reference tool. Awareness of their intersection could have helped me consider that price had just broken down from the compression and that this breakdown had a good likelihood of reverting back to the longer term mean represented by the Channel mp. It would have put my preconception of the downswing being overextended in context of the possibilities that lay ahead. Imagination...
However, there may be no intersection. There may be no channel. If there's no channel, there's no mean.
I realize I'm not making myself clear regarding these lines, but all I can do is repeat, again, that once one is in the trade, the lines don't matter. Yes, one must know the trend of the market. Yes, one must know where he is in the trend. But then what one looks at to determine his entry is paramount.
This morning, before the open, I pointed out the hinge (yes, Snidelys, in advance). And those who've read my posts on hinges know that they usually feint to one side, then exit the other. That is exactly what happened this morning. The short, then, the only short, was the failure of traders to get past 48. None of the other shorts after this one is as good, and to avoid taking it because of what one fears might be ahead is to misunderstand the purpose of trading. And once this short is taken, all that matters is the balance between demand and supply. Whatever lines one may have drawn are meaningless. They don't matter. One must follow where price leads without second-guessing it. If one had taken the short at 48, there'd be no need to exit before 15. If he re-entered at 15 a half hour later, there'd be no need to exit before 95. That's up to 50pts. But if one worries about everything that could go wrong, the trade will be worth far less.
Caution may be appropriate, but there's a difference between being prudent and being fearful. One should look for the best trades and the best entries, but if he's afraid to take them, then all the work is pretty much for nothing.
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