Son of If You Can Draw a Straight Line . . .

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I just saw the movie MONEYBALL on TV. I had seen it before. One of the major thrusts was that you simply must wait for your pitch. To do that requires a number of skills: the ability to foul it off with a two strike count to stay alive, the judgement that allows you to know the breaking ball will miss the zone by a hair etc. I know it's far too easy to take sports analogies too far vis-a-vis trading but this is one that holds up 100%. You need to wait for your pitch. Comparing it to poker, you need to get your money in right. I think everyone in this thread is very much on the same page although the semantical differences are obscuring that. We all know a positive expectation is not about predicting an individual trade will work.

When I wait for my pitch, when I get my money in right etc. I have done my job as it relates to the entry. I still have more to do, trade management etc., before I have lived up to my entire plan but entering properly is an important step and whether I think I anticipated properly or predicted well is less important than actually doing it correctly as defined by my plan. My plan is built to allow me to win. On a daily basis it is my job to execute that plan. No more ... no less.

BTW ... MONEYBALL is a ton of fun to watch and you'll enjoy it even if you're not a fan. Well written and well acted, it is lighthearted with some good messaging that you're not beaten over the head with.
 
While RedNeck can speak for himself, and while my saying this for the dozenth time will likely whiz right past practically everybody who isn't a participant, this approach has nothing to do with prediction or anticipation or expectation or fortune telling or prognostication or forecasting or divination or whatever the hell else. It is about determining the balance IN THE MOMENT between demand and supply, or buying pressure and selling pressure, and acting accordingly AT THAT MOMENT. What happens thereafter is entirely within the realm of trade management and has nothing to do with entry or prediction or forecasting or anticipation or expectation et al ad infinitum. Those who have actually READ THE FIRST FIVE POSTS understand this. Those who have not will, of course, not.

There is an entire thread devoted to this prediction nonsense. I very much wish that everybody who wants to argue about it would move those arguments to that thread. Those who want to know how one can trade without predicting anything are welcome to READ THE FIRST FIVE POSTS and make this discovery for themselves. Those who don't want to know will please grace some other thread with their presence.
 
Quote from fortydraws:

I would also caution that anyone following the market on a longer timeframe would no doubt disagree with my saying that the immediate trend is down. Looking at the daily and weekly bar interval charts, the immediate trend would clearly be up. Which goes to show the importance for a trader to clearly define for himself just what timeframe he is trading, or risk errors in executing his plan by confusing one timeframe's immediate trend with another timeframe's immediate trend.
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FWIW, I agree about the downtrend, though, again, price could reverse at any time. However, we came within 20pts of the upper limit of the 5yr trend, which should be long-term enough for just about anybody. And if you draw a line connecting the last two weekly swing highs (May and July), this last swing high fell right into place.

Is this a prediction? No, it's a statement of fact. Price will of course do as it pleases, but that doesn't mean that the competent trader is reduced to guessing.
 
Hi Db,

Is this the pink supply line you were referring to? The swing low is still holding and I guess either the failure to go up which kind of already happened this past trading day could give an indication of weakness. I still consider it a bit pre-mature to go negative but it's the risk tolerance speaking again in my case. Perhaps a show to strength by the supply by breaking the last swing low would bring more legitimacy in my eyes.

The dotted demand line has been breached and usually with such steep rise a drop follows. Whether it's now or later I guess we can't predict. It calls for the quote: "this approach has nothing to do with prediction or anticipation or expectation or fortune telling or prognostication or forecasting or divination or whatever the hell else." Simply because price could take any action from here we really don't know. As far as I am concerned I await a bit more tipping of the hand by the market before getting in.

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Gringo
 

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Quote from Gringo:

Hi Db,

Is this the pink supply line you were referring to?
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We were talking about the weekly ES. Or at least I thought we were. The NQ is doing fine, and appears to be clear to reach the top of its trend channel. Whether or not the ES will drag it down remains to be seen, but the two do not have identical components.

Since you brought it up, though, I have been looking at the major component stocks and they all look like crap except for 3M and UTX in the Dow. So if the NQ does reach the top of its long-term channel, it may be little more than a pop.

Not that I'm predicting anything. Just ruminating. Observing. Chawing.
 
Quote from dbphoenix:

We were talking about the weekly ES. Or at least I thought we were. The NQ is doing fine, and appears to be clear to reach the top of its trend channel. Whether or not the ES will drag it down remains to be seen, but the two do not have identical components.

Since you brought it up, though, I have been looking at the major component stocks and they all look like crap except for 3M and UTX in the Dow. So if the NQ does reach the top of its long-term channel, it may be little more than a pop.

Not that I'm predicting anything. Just ruminating. Observing. Chawing.
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That makes sense. Here's the chart for the monthly to clarify where we stand.

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Gringo
 

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Quote from dbphoenix:

A better question might be if you're not interested in this stuff, why do you hang out with those who are?
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A question that I have asked myself more in the last year than at any other time in my life is "where do these people come from?"

Nowhere in real life do I come across so many people who have a need that they are compelled to fill such as I see here - this need to say something about everything, especially if it is anything they have no understanding of nor any desire to understand. Other than a few journals here at ET by traders studying or trying to understand this particular approach, and the stuff at the Wyckoff forum of TL, I don't have the time nor desire to read all these other discussions. Then I kinda start to feel sorry for these folks who do spend so much time trying to rip these discussions apart, because I realize they must not have too much positive in their lives if this is how they choose to spend their free time.

I did enjoy your thoughts on the psychology of failure, and the participation by Swan Noir to which it was a response. There is a certain irony to all this: Those who demand the bona fides lack the understanding that would let them see already what it is the bona fides would show. Those who do understand what is going on would never demand to see the bona fides, because all the proof they need is readily apparent to them on the face of it.
 
DB mentioned in an earlier post that traders who use stops to manage trades are remise in taking responsibility for the trade themselves. I believe, and can offer personal testimony, that many traders do the same with a moving average. It is a convenient way to enter or exit a trade without much thought as to why price is moving. I still find myself wanting to throw on one, "just to see" what it is dong.

When I see charts posted by others with ma's, stochastics, macd's, etc. , I tend to dismiss most of what they have to say.

I have gone through a phase of using certain indicators as "filters", however, this is just as bad as using them in any other way. IMHO.

Sorry, if off topic.
 
Quote from dbphoenix:

Your insistence on asking the wrong questions is one of the chief reasons why you continue to be unsuccessful. When you begin to understand the importance of trading price in the moment rather than fretting over where it will be at some point in the future, then you may begin to turn things around.
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You're just going in circles here and trying to make me look like the bad guy, when I'm merely asking honest questions as politely as I can.

I'll be with you in the moment any day next week or the week after or whenever it suits you. Forget about the future, prediction or anticipation. I invite you to place a trade or several if that's what you need to play out your edge.

You don't have to predict anything. Not even anticipate anything.

Just place a trade.

In real time. Not in hindsight.

I would very much appreciate it.

Thank you.
 
Quote from Hooti:

LF, I watched you trade when you were posting daily. That was great.

I think if you looked, you could see where db has done the same.

So many traders fail, or struggle seemingly forever. Reminds me of the saying that 'crazy is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting different results.' One way of looking at what db is doing is teaching... not in the same way over and over.

Just a thought.
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Hey, Hooti.

I remember you!

I'm not sure I believe you, but if you're serious, I'm surely glad to hear it.

I'll tell you this though. I was always honest about my results, both good and bad. I posted blotters when I was called out for being a paper trader and I were also honest about my losses and the fact that I were not yet consistently profitable at the time being.

Maybe I'm expecting too much hoping everyone else does the same?

I hate to look like the bad guy here, but I truly don't feel that after hundreds of pages it would be too much to ask for a live demonstration?

I hope you're doing well with your trading.

Best wishes.

Laissez Faire.
 
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