Son of If You Can Draw a Straight Line . . .
- Thread starter dbphoenix
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You hear of traders developing a âfeelâ or âintuitionâ with regard to trading..
Douglas, Steenbarger, and other notables speak of it
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I believe these "intuitive" traders are subconsciously sensing the pressure/ control - present/ being exerted , leading to a âgut feelâ, that they then follow
At time this sense is overwhelming⦠other times evasive/ absent
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You (generically speaking) wish to capitalize on thisâ¦, then cultivate it â by learning to consciously pick up on the pressure / control - present / being exerted
And like everything else in this business â its easy after you get it⦠but getting it can be a bitch
Step 1 â You must be open
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BMW;
Come to never expect shit - that way losers cease being a hindrance - as do winners
You'll find a huge burden lifted - and the freedom to simply trade
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okay for the record;
I anticipateâ¦. I do not predict for shit
Predicting has lost me a shit load of money, consequently....
In my world â there is..., and forever remains - a huge difference between the two â period
To each his own
RN
For the record:
How much money have you made anticipating? A shit load, I hope?
From a certain perspective, you are correct. However, couching all of this in terms of intuition and sensitivity and gut feelings and so forth serves to make it unattainable, particularly with regard to the unsuccessful trader.
If one ever wants to become "sensitive" to price movement, he must first learn to focus on it, and this means sloughing off everything that is not directly related to price movement, i.e., indicators, patterns, "pivots", any sort of arithmetic calculation, currency fluctuations in Albania, etc. Struggling traders find it extraordinarily difficult to do this, focusing instead on questions that are entirely extraneous to the task: instead of focusing on what's in front of them, in the moment (which of course is the moment at which they must make a trading decision), they're focused on where price is going to be at some point in the future, whether a minute from now, or 5 or 60 or next week or at the end of the year. Over the years, I've come up with all sorts of schemes/crutches that I had hoped would enable people to achieve this focus, everything from the clever to the hare-brained, but a common thread was/is focus, even if the focus was/is on the wrong thing. Some call this "discipline", but unless one knows what he's focusing on and why he's focusing on it, the discipline won't last for long, perhaps no more than a few minutes.
Which is how I came to the process detailed in the opening posts.
Following what in many ways is a mechanical process will not in and of itself transform one into an intuitive trader. But it will at least prevent him from going broke. And if he is able to set aside his ego long enough to learn how to focus, he might actually start to make money. Whether he actually ever becomes "intuitive" is not terribly important.
Think, for example, of the novice golfer or tennis player. They are taught how to stand, how to hold the club or racket, how to swing, how to follow-through, how to focus on the ball, and so on. If they practice all of this long enough and with enough intensity, they will eventually become competent and able to rack up some consistent wins. They may not become stars, but they will become competent, or at least they will not embarrass themselves.
But some players will get past this. After a certain amount of play which can range from very little to seemingly endless, something clicks: the balance is there, the stroke is there, the focus is there, all without thinking about it, and all the mechanical details evaporate. This is the basis of intuition and "gut feel".
One must remember, however, that getting to that level is not necessary in order to make a living at this (though it may be necessary for golf or tennis). If one can learn to focus on the process in an egoless fashion, he can do quite well. But following the process without interference from the ego is not accomplished in an afternoon.
On the other hand, if a nine-year-old child can do it . . .
Actually, it does matter if you trade or not. When you take on the role of mentoring, you should be able to put your money where your mouth is. In the end, you're responsible for your actions and like I alluded to earlier, there are naive people willing to risk a lot of time and money on what you're saying. Of course, they need to take responsibility for their own actions, but that does not take you out of the equation.
The principles have been there for centuries, very well, but is it possible to make consistent coin using them? Or are you leading people astray?
If you make consistent coin using this method, that would validate your teachings. If you don't, that would invalidate it. Simple as that.
Since you seem to have a soft spot for Ed Seykota, I'm reminded of him saying how everyone gets what they want out of the market.
You're also getting something out of this thread; you're validated by it and you enjoy the risk-free praise and recognition.
Posting a few live calls would be a threat to your ego, since your 92% win rate may not hold up next week and it would make you look bad.
I don't think I asked for much by asking for your opinion about where you anticipate the market going in your preferred time frame. I was not asking for your blotter, P&L for 2013 or your personal fortune, just a real time demonstrations of these principles. If it's a valid method, that should not be a problem at all.
In sincere anticipation.
Regards,
Laissez Faire.
Your insistence on asking the wrong questions is one of the chief reasons why you continue to be unsuccessful. When you begin to understand the importance of trading price in the moment rather than fretting over where it will be at some point in the future, then you may begin to turn things around.
LF, I watched you trade when you were posting daily. That was great.
I think if you looked, you could see where db has done the same.
So many traders fail, or struggle seemingly forever. Reminds me of the saying that 'crazy is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting different results.' One way of looking at what db is doing is teaching... not in the same way over and over.
Just a thought.
I think if you looked, you could see where db has done the same.
So many traders fail, or struggle seemingly forever. Reminds me of the saying that 'crazy is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting different results.' One way of looking at what db is doing is teaching... not in the same way over and over.
Just a thought.
You are asking for something that would be more apropos in a Barons article interviewing a mutual fund manager, e.g. "So where do you think the Dow will be in December 2014?"
This approach does not aim at anything other than allowing one to anticipate, as Wyckoff says, the most probable direction of the immediate trend of prices.
I've been spending some time learning to use this method to follow the hourly and daily bar interval charts of the ES and the SP-500. On my timeframe, the most probable direction of the immediate trend is down, and has been since 9/19. I shorted the ES on that day, based on my use of this method.
I did misread the market midweek this week, and covered my short. That is a problem with me, and not the method. The problem with me, as I have come to sort it out over the past 48 hours, seems to stem from my primary experience as a day trader leading me to confuse or conflate or mix my timeframes this week. By that I mean that I was in a longer term short on the ES, and I allowed an intraday long on the NQ to lead me to make a decision to quit my ES short. Having covered that short, I allowed myself to interpret the NQ long as more than an intraday trade, and I held it overnight watching all but a point or so of profits disappear. Again, a bunch of mistakes that were my own (un)doing, and not the method.
Now, if the current immediate trend of the ES/SP500 is down, where does that leave us with respect for your request that someone make a "call" telling you where price will be at some point in the future? Well, no where, really, as you are asking for something that this method does not produce.
I can say that based on the daily chart, the SP-500 should be watched to see if support develops between 1645-1665. Will it get there? Maybe, but it has every right to reverse anytime it wants. Can this approach "predict" that price will get there? No. This approach follows price. Right now, the immediate trend is down until it isn't. When it is no longer down, then follow it where it goes, using S & R to alert us to potential levels of interest where price may or may not reverse, or it may or may not break out higher, or it may or may not breakout and retrace before continuing higher, or even breakout, retrace, and reverse.
I would also caution that anyone following the market on a longer timeframe would no doubt disagree with my saying that the immediate trend is down. Looking at the daily and weekly bar interval charts, the immediate trend would clearly be up. Which goes to show the importance for a trader to clearly define for himself just what timeframe he is trading, or risk errors in executing his plan by confusing one timeframe's immediate trend with another timeframe's immediate trend.
A synonym of prediction is anticipation and vice versa, don't be afraid of accepting that trading is prediction, seems to me you tricking yourself into thinking you arent, when you are, every trade is a prediction.
In the spirit of mutual exploration and discovery:
"Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it. Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumored by many. Do not believe in anything simply because it is found written in your religious books. Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers and elders. Do not believe in traditions because they have been handed down for many generations. But after observation and analysis, when you find that anything agrees with reason and is conducive to the good and benefit of one and all, then accept it and live up to it."
- The Buddha
At the end of the day, how does one weigh the information risk (do the principles make coin) and the price risk (opportunity cost), against the payoff ( robust method with evergreen edge)?
If by studying the experience of others, I can establish the principles to hold a certain base rate of truth, then through my own experimentation, I can infer whether to add or subtract to this base rate.
And then there are contextual factors. Such as the spirit being displayed. Is there harmony and genuine care? What can I infer from this information and how does it affect my base rate calculation?
And lastly, there is something beyond the realm of any reasoning, although one does require reason to understand the limitations of logic. Faith.
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