Son of If You Can Draw a Straight Line . . .

[game]

Quote from dbphoenix:

I can understand why your fear might be ignited when you don't understand why you're doing what you're doing. And there are two courses to follow: (1) go back to observation, if you can stand it, or (2) just follow price's lead without thinking about it. If you can't do that, then this approach may not be for you.

You're not alone, of course. Everyone who posts to this thread other than Gringo or 40D is afraid of the market. They've bought into all that about the market being perverse and vengeful and out to get you and trying to trick you and it's a war and a battle and full of sharks and blah blah blah. It's all nonsense. People come up with all this crap because they can't or won't assume responsibility for their own failure. How much easier is it to blame the market makers or the manipulators or the "big money" or the "smart money" or the quants or the HFTs or the algos or whatever the hell else?

The market is not sentient. It's just a venue for traders to trade. But people who don't understand what they're doing or what they're looking at will come up with all sorts of reasons why they're failing other than that they don't understand what they're doing or what they're looking at. Which is why it's so much easier for beginners to follow this approach than those who have some experience, particularly those with experience who have also experienced failure. Sometimes a lot of failure.

I know this is frustrating, and the more you've bought into the above, the more frustrating it will be. And you may feel as though you're insulting yourself by drawing lines. But one doesn't become Norman Rockwell from the getgo. He begins by drawing circles and triangles and squares and rectangles. And before you know it, he's got Mickey Mouse.

If the exercise appeals to you, you could always start with my first trade at 0556 and see if you can figure out what I did when I did it and where I did it and why. If that doesn't appeal to you, then perhaps more replay is in order. Or, as I said earlier, perhaps more observation is needed rather than looking for setups. This is the road you're going to have to travel to gain the necessary self-knowledge.

Not sure if you are using my question to address the fears of others or if I perhaps overstated not understanding what I am doing. My understanding is improving and I have a strong theoretical framework established.

Uncertainty arises when I am not able to fit missed opps and errors into the framework of auction markets - basically the plan. But upon review, it often turns out that my uncertainty arose because I was slow in interpreting unfolding PA information against context, or because of of omitting a context element that I had observed during prep. I think this is an issue of execution, where practice will make me faster and better. I am not frustrated and I just wanted you to know that.

Your trade at 0556 - where do I see it? Or are you asking me to guess where you would have entered?

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from game:

Not sure if you are using my question to address the fears of others or if I perhaps overstated not understanding what I am doing. My understanding is improving and I have a strong theoretical framework established.

Uncertainty arises when I am not able to fit missed opps and errors into the framework of auction markets - basically the plan. But upon review, it often turns out that my uncertainty arose because I was slow in interpreting unfolding PA information against context, or because of of omitting a context element that I had observed during prep. I think this is an issue of execution, where practice will make me faster and better. I am not frustrated and I just wanted you to know that.

Your trade at 0556 - where do I see it? Or are you asking me to guess where you would have entered?

My comments about fear applied to everybody, not just you. But "uncertainty" is just another way of saying "fear". I suggest that next time it comes up that you ask yourself why you don't just take it. Just take it. What's the worst that could happen? You'd lose a couple of ticks? I lost eight ticks on a trade today. Big deal. That was followed by a trade worth 46 ticks.

As to context, if this continues to elude you, try reversing it. Don't even bother with context other than in the most general way, and perhaps not even that. Watch price, and when buyers and sellers start to settle down, or appear to be doing so, ask yourself why? Why there? What is it about that level? Then look to your left and see if you can find a reasonable rationale for that leveling or that hesitation or that little half-assed thrust. Much of this you won't see in prep because it hasn't even happened yet, such as today's drop down to 12 and that hinge that was formed on the way down.

As to the trade at 0556, don't guess. If you don't know why I took it or where, then just move on.

 

[game]

Quote from dbphoenix:


As to the trade at 0556, don't guess. If you don't know why I took it or where, then just move on.

Steep fall to S from Sunday at 3216. Entry on ret in anticipation of breaking through S and perhaps getting a good position for the fall through the air pocket ( which did occur much later).

Short entered above potential S. But since PA did not confirm S, the LOLR was followed and the short above potential S was ok until PA said otherwise.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from game:

Steep fall to S from Sunday at 3216. Entry on ret in anticipation of breaking through S and perhaps getting a good position for the fall through the air pocket ( which did occur much later).

Short entered above potential S. But since PA did not confirm S, the LOLR was followed and the short above potential S was ok until PA said otherwise.

Are you looking at 0556 NYT?

 

[game]

Quote from dbphoenix:

Are you looking at 0556 NYT?

No I was adding 1 hr to EST and looking at 0656 CST :> instead of 0456 CST

At 0556 EST, price was launching off the mp level of the upwave from 3220 to 3230. The launch off mp was supported by the formation of two HL's and the buy stop was placed above the SH of 3225.75 - so perhaps at 3226. Long term LOLR was up and this was a low price risk entry in the direction of immediate LOLR to position oneself in alignment with the long term trend.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from game:

No I was adding 1 hr to EST and looking at 0656 CST :> instead of 0456 CST

At 0556 EST, price was launching off the mp level of the upwave from 3220 to 3230. The launch off mp was supported by the formation of two HL's and the buy stop was placed above the SH of 3225.75 - so perhaps at 3226. Long term LOLR was up and this was a low price risk entry in the direction of immediate LOLR to position oneself in alignment with the long term trend.

First, that's not a midpoint. I've made a couple of posts on that this morning and you should look them over.

Second, at this point the long-term LOLR isn't really relevant. The LOLR can change a dozen times or more during the day, which is what keeps you in synch with price. If price makes a double bottom at S, the LOLR is up. If it chokes at the second bottom and can't gain strength, the LOLR is down. Don't get too caught up in the LOLR. Just follow price's lead.

Third, I did enter at 3225.75, but it had nothing to do with the long-term trend. It had to do with the strength buyers were showing in keeping price away from the air pocket. This lasted for only a half-hour and I made only a tick.

Fourth, I wouldn't call it a "launch" at that hour. More a begrudging crawl.

 

[game]

Quote from dbphoenix:


Second, at this point the long-term LOLR isn't really relevant. The LOLR can change a dozen times or more during the day, which is what keeps you in synch with price. If price makes a double bottom at S, the LOLR is up. If it chokes at the second bottom and can't gain strength, the LOLR is down. Don't get too caught up in the LOLR. Just follow price's lead.

Would you say that there is an ideal middle ground somewhere between stop and reverse trading aka surfing, and trading only when price is at easily identifiable extreme?

I find that the 'uncertainty' I experience is not about determining the immediate LOLR. It is more about whether I am choosing the best spots to trade - and this is where the thinking occurs, as I try to reflect on price's position with reference to context. Perhaps I am getting too rigid with this idea of trading extremes and thus losing the dynamism required of trading price.

So just reaching out for some wisdom on how to follow the LOLR while still cultivating the patience to wait for the best jewels.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from game:

Would you say that there is an ideal middle ground somewhere between stop and reverse trading aka surfing, and trading only when price is at easily identifiable extreme?

I find that the 'uncertainty' I experience is not about determining the immediate LOLR. It is more about whether I am choosing the best spots to trade - and this is where the thinking occurs, as I try to reflect on price's position with reference to context. Perhaps I am getting too rigid with this idea of trading extremes and thus losing the dynamism required of trading price.

So just reaching out for some wisdom on how to follow the LOLR while still cultivating the patience to wait for the best jewels.

After my 0556 trade was nullified, what would you have done next?

 

[game]

Quote from dbphoenix:

After my 0556 trade was nullified, what would you have done next?

Price had failed to climb back to the R at 3230. Would have waited for price to cross 3224 before declaring the LOLR to be down. Placed sell stop at 0704 EST in anticipation of going to 3220 and 3216.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from game:

Price had failed to climb back to the R at 3230. Would have waited for price to cross 3224 before declaring the LOLR to be down. Placed sell stop at 0704 EST in anticipation of going to 3220 and 3216.

You're thinking too much. Just follow price and don't look ahead. You don't know what's ahead, so there's no point in looking there.

Price rose from 20 to 30. It then fell to 25, halfway, and held there. That made the LOLR up. I entered at 25.75. Price then made it to the halfway point between 25 and 30, i.e., 27, and failed there. That made the LOLR down. There was no need to wait for anything else. If the LOLR had remained up, price would have risen. So after the demand line was broken, I went short at the first retracement thereafter, at 0640. Why wait?