Son of If You Can Draw a Straight Line . . .

Status
Not open for further replies.
Quote from niko:

I don´t know how you enter the market, but based on that line and assuming one was not long (Limiting the ability to take the short awaiting for more confirmation while holding the long). 2200 (beginning Nov) seems like a perfect entry according to the Line Break + RET drill.
More...

I would say that is pretty aggressive given that there is nothing compelling in the PA suggesting an imminent fall. Half of the ret is to the left of the DS line.
 
Quote from game:

I would say that is pretty aggressive given that there is nothing compelling in the PA suggesting an imminent fall. Half of the ret is to the left of the DS line.
More...

It's a hindsight demand line. As such, it's wrong.
 
Quote from dbphoenix:

It's a hindsight demand line. As such, it's wrong.
More...

It is hindsight. But it does illustrate the difficulty of finding a good short up top before the drop. I believe that is why you went short in Dec instead.
 
Quote from game:

It is hindsight. But it does illustrate the difficulty of finding a good short up top before the drop. I believe that is why you went short in Dec instead.
More...

If a correction is in the books, it won't to be a one night stand. And if it is a one night stand, then it won't be a correction.

Gringo
 
Quote from game:

It is hindsight. But it does illustrate the difficulty of finding a good short up top before the drop. I believe that is why you went short in Dec instead.
More...

And how would you have known at the time that it was "the top"?
 
Quote from dbphoenix:

And how would you have known at the time that it was "the top"?
More...

I wouldn't. The trend run is slowing with a few selling waves, but judging by the PA alone, nothing is screaming sell. There is no last gasp retest.

Also, it's interesting how you used the construction index in 06 as a warning sign. If someone was living on an island, totally disconnected from the rest of the world and with access to just Market Price, I doubt they would form the narrative between the housing bubble and the market crash. And without that fundamental knowledge, there would be no need to consult the construction index.

So I think this instance in 07 is a great example of how one could play the larger themes by using common sense to know the drivers of a market bubble and then using price action as a divergence signal to time it's deflation. Perhaps you could have bought LEAP puts once the construction index stalled. That would have been quite a pay off.
 
Quote from game:

I wouldn't. The trend run is slowing with a few selling waves, but judging by the PA alone, nothing is screaming sell. There is no last gasp retest.

Also, it's interesting how you used the construction index in 06 as a warning sign. If someone was living on an island, totally disconnected from the rest of the world and with access to just Market Price, I doubt they would form the narrative between the housing bubble and the market crash. And without that fundamental knowledge, there would be no need to consult the construction index.

So I think this instance in 07 is a great example of how one could play the larger themes by using common sense to know the drivers of a market bubble and then using price action as a divergence signal to time it's deflation. Perhaps you could have bought LEAP puts once the construction index stalled. That would have been quite a pay off.
More...

All of which is why it's not practical to concern oneself with shorting "before the drop". There's going to be a retest. There always is. And missing out on 10% of a 1200pt drop is no sacrifice. The alternative which most traders take is to short "the top", then the next one, then the next, then the next. There were a dozen "tops" beginning in December '02. And people have been shorting this one since '09.

As for the construction index, I don't recall anybody bringing it up, island or no island. But it seemed perfectly logical to me. It's why I sold my house when I did, for $179K, two months before the local housing market rolled over. Unfortunately, this bubble is not as easy to dissect.

In any case, the market needn't crash in order to provide a nice profit. It need only return to the lower limit of its trend channel. If it falls below that, so much the better.
 
Quote from dbphoenix:

All of which is why it's not practical to concern oneself with shorting "before the drop". There's going to be a retest. There always is. And missing out on 10% of a 1200pt drop is no sacrifice. The alternative which most traders take is to short "the top", then the next one, then the next, then the next. There were a dozen "tops" beginning in December '02. And people have been shorting this one since '09.

As for the construction index, I don't recall anybody bringing it up, island or no island. But it seemed perfectly logical to me. It's why I sold my house when I did, for $179K, two months before the local housing market rolled over. Unfortunately, this bubble is not as easy to dissect.

In any case, the market needn't crash in order to provide a nice profit. It need only return to the lower limit of its trend channel. If it falls below that, so much the better.
More...

My first job out of school was in the sub prime loan business during the twilight days of the bubble. It was memorable. People had been warning of the bubble since the early 2000's. Fundamental housing metrics were whacked but the market kept going higher. So when I read Paul Tudor Jone's Market Wizard interview in which he attributed 50% of his success to fundamentals and 50% to technicals, I had a vague idea of what he meant, but not really. But now,having immersed myself in PA over the last 6 months, I am starting to understand the wisdom behind those words.

Edit: It wasn't his Market Wizard Interview. It was some other interview of his that I read online.

Edit 2: Here is the interview

http://chinese-school.netfirms.com/Paul-Tudor-Jones-interview.html
 
What a nice surprise to read the post below by slapshot. He hasn't been active since 2011 but what he says pertains to the central message of this thread. He also mentions dbphoenix. So that's more confirmation for those still on the fence. Now stop hesitating and take that entry into Price Action!

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=25425&perpage=10&pagenumber=11

An excerpt from the excellent post above.

"It is important to note that this learning was greatly influenced by veteran traders of this board such as dbphoenix and his old price/volume thread. One time on PM he challenged me to learn what the price action vs. volume actually meant (supply/demand). I owe a lot to folks like him that helped me cut through the fog."

His hit rate is fantastic and something I aspire towards.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top