Son of If You Can Draw a Straight Line . . .

[dbphoenix]

Quote from r3algood:

Yes, I will tone down the size of the charts in future posts.

No gaps: (24 hour chart) noted.

"One question, though, did you annotate these charts in real time? Some of the annotations suggest that you did not."

This first session of marking the charts up in this manner was not in real time, though I did slowly scroll bar-by-bar. I think that Friday's price action being so fresh in my mind skewed the markup process. In future posts I will annotate sessions that are sufficiently in the past (or wait and see where the other members of this thread take the discussion, if past charts are unwelcome I will refrain from posting them and taking up space unless other members find it good practice).

Db, in annotating this chart I found a new-found sense of confidence due to the simplicity and realistic nature of letting price decide instead of trying to let my thoughts "guide the market". How foolish to think that the market should respond to my wishes and desires.

I look forward to learning more.

Thanks

I assumed that these annotations were not made in real time because there was a mix of timid trades and aggressive ones. That most often occurs when someone is trying to reconstruct a trading scheme while knowing how it all turns out. You can plot these lines on a few hindsight charts just to see how it works, but this won't help you much when you're trading. For that you'll have to use replay, and begin plotting your lines at the right edge of whatever you've chosen at random (scrolling bar by bar is not replay since the beginning of the chart will usually be compressed against the top or bottom of the frame; this is not how price will look in real time: it will fill the frame).

There's not much point in posting hindsight charts. What matters is not what you did or should have done but what you're going to do. If, for example, NY were to open in five minutes, what would you do? What would you look for? Unless and until you know that, annotating hindsight charts gives a false sense of security.

 

[Huyang]

Quote from slugar:

I have a question on Friday at 8:50 cst you get a retracement and a chance to go long and it did work but if the trade goes against you do you simply exit at the break of the demand line? And then again at a little after 9 you get a break of a steeper fanned line but you have a swing low to use or the fanned out demand line as an exit just a little confused on the 1st trade!

Slugar:

if i are asking me, the below is my answer:
Based on lines I draw, 7:04 the frist time to break DL d. i would not exit, but i did write my plan at 7:04 as shown in the first chart: if close below 3328, exit long. But then the market didnot close below 3328, so hold long. All my exit is written in advance bar by bar analysis in charts and i then just followed the plan.

 

[Huyang]

Just found out, 10:35 bar has a low 3336.75 but close at 3337.5, so i should not exit long based on my plan at 10:11. Anyway, next time should be careful about bar low and bar close.

 

[Gringo]

Quote from Huyang:

Just found out, 10:35 bar has a low 3336.75 but close at 3337.5, so i should not exit long based on my plan at 10:11. Anyway, next time should be careful about bar low and bar close.

Huyang,

Your lingo is using too much of the word 'bar'. This word is a harbinger of some trouble in the future. A few questions for you.

What's the difference between the below:

1. Price going below the LSL (last swing low) and rising above it a second before the bar closes.

2. Price going below the LSL and the bar closes, but rising above the LSL in the first second of the new bar.

Can you explain the difference between both? In first case you're saying you're not exiting the position. In the second case you're probably exiting the position. Is the price move really that different? Why are your actions different?

Gringo

 

[Hooti]

Quote from dbphoenix:

Perseveration is fine as long as it's in the right direction. But complicating what is here with what you're carrying will likely only make matters worse for you. You have to decide which way you want to go.

...In the right direction

I hope so. My sister is a special ed teacher and she and her special ed teacher friends first pointed out I did perseverate routinely. I didn't know what the word meant. One definition is doing something that doesn't work over and over.

The teacher's were very concerned until they realized I would suddenly stop perseverating and do something utterly unique and creative that worked well. I think it is the artistic part of me.

That is all neither here nor there. Many have complexities in life beyond just being interested and serious. I certainly do. The playing field is not level. Whatever complexities there are, your approach by getting to such a basic fundamental thing... as you have in this thread has helped. I'm getting real world results. Just waiting to see how consistent they become. So I'll try not not make matters worse, and to make a go of it, and to share that when it fits...
if by 'deciding which way you want to go' you mean posting more?

 

[Huyang]

Quote from Gringo:

Huyang,

Your lingo is using too much of the word 'bar'. This word is a harbinger of some trouble in the future. A few questions for you.

What's the difference between the below:

1. Price going below the LSL (last swing low) and rising above it a second before the bar closes.

2. Price going below the LSL and the bar closes, but rising above the LSL in the first second of the new bar.

Can you explain the difference between both? In first case you're saying you're not exiting the position. In the second case you're probably exiting the position. Is the price move really that different? Why are your actions different?
Gringo

Gringo:
On a continuous basis, there is no close or open. So in this sense, there is no much difference between 1 and 2 except at that moment when the bar closes, case 1 buyers are stronger than sellers and case 2 sellers are stronger than buyers. I just chose to make my exit decision based on the demand/supply at that moment and follow it consistently. This is the reasoning behind the exit and i am not sure whether it make sense. Thank you very much.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from Hooti:

if by 'deciding which way you want to go' you mean posting more?

No, I mean deciding whether you want to go the pivot point candle pattern indicator route or jettison all that and focus on price movement. If you want to focus on price movement, then you're going to have to focus on price movement. If you want to add all sorts of qualifiers, then trying to follow price isn't going to work for you. Of course, if all those qualifiers haven't worked for you so far, what reasons do you have to believe that they will work for you in the future?

 

[r3algood]

As a user of TradeStation I do not have access to Market Replay capabilities, but I have found a solution and I hope this will help others that are facing this same problem.

One can download NinjaTrader for free and use its "Market Replay" function to replay minute by minute and tick by tick recent days of market action. I am not sure how far back one can download the replay data but I have tested downloading all of last week's S&P 500 emini data and it worked, so I assume Ninja allows for at least a few weeks worth of replay data.

Hopefully this helps someone!

 

[Hooti]

Quote from dbphoenix:

If you want to add all sorts of qualifiers, then trying to follow price isn't going to work for you.

I see what you mean.

It's odd... all the qualifiers offer to do some thinking for you. Yet they somehow make you so busy or distracted that you can't actually follow price. Isn't that weird?


But you are right also, I haven't quite unloaded all that from my thinking yet. Will keep working, or 'unworking' at it...

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from Hooti:

I see what you mean.

It's odd... all the qualifiers offer to do some thinking for you. Yet they somehow make you so busy or distracted that you can't actually follow price. Isn't that weird?


But you are right also, I haven't quite unloaded all that from my thinking yet. Will keep working, or 'unworking' at it...

It'll be easier to unload your thinking if you clean your charts. Use something that has nothing on it but price, such as those posted on the 16th.