Son of If You Can Draw a Straight Line . . .

[Huyang]

Quote from dbphoenix:


At 1016, this line is also broken, and the fearful look to draw a supply line tracking the progress of sellers. So far, no trades, just tracking.

What then?

retraced to around 50% 3204, then moving up again. broken small SL called as line 2 from 10:27 and approaching now to SL called as line 1 drawn from 10:06. If break above line1, then long again at retracement? or at 11:11 could long using stop price 3211 since line2 is broken anyway?

 

[niko]

Quote from dbphoenix:

That is incorrect. Since the demand line has been broken, the fearful will be out. If they then want to continue, they'll draw a supply line tracing the move down. No short will be taken because there is no retracement in this downmove.

At 1013, this line will be broken and a new demand line can be drawn to trace the progress of buyers to the upside, but there's no retracement for a long here either.

At 1016, this line is also broken, and the fearful look to draw a supply line tracking the progress of sellers. So far, no trades, just tracking.

What then?

Then the long would come at 10:27 at 11, the DL would be broken at 10:29, then a DT and then a short at 10:32 at 11.50, that would have been a 1 point loser as well. Not sure about reentering this move to the downside on the RET at 10:38, if done that that would have meant another 1 point loss.

 

[niko]

Quote from niko:

Then the long would come at 10:27 at 11, the DL would be broken at 10:29, then a DT and then a short at 10:32 at 11.50, that would have been a 1 point loser as well. Not sure about reentering this move to the downside on the RET at 10:38, if done that that would have meant another 1 point loss.

But at some point the fearful has to realize he is in a trading range and give up with this nonsense.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from niko:

Then the long would come at 10:27 at 11, the DL would be broken at 10:29, then a DT and then a short at 10:32 at 11.50, that would have been a 1 point loser as well. Not sure about reentering this move to the downside on the RET at 10:38, if done that that would have meant another 1 point loss.

Correct on the surface, if one doesn't trade. You are correct about the long at 1027 (the exact times will vary according to one's data feed), disregarding the lower low. And you're correct about the break at 1029. However, one can't short unless and until one has exited the long, which is why so many hindsight analyses are useless in practice. Therefore, you have to decide where you're going to exit the long. Or set up a separate account and short against the box. Barring that, the fearful would exit at the break (and they wouldn't be shorting against the box anyway). The long would then be at worst a BE trade.

So now you've exited the long, and the first retracement thereafter, depending on data feed, is at 1032. Why would this be a loser?

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from niko:

But at some point the fearful has to realize he is in a trading range and give up with this nonsense.

Since he's had no losers so far, why give up?

 

[niko]

Quote from dbphoenix:

So now you've exited the long, and the first retracement thereafter, depending on data feed, is at 1032. Why would this be a loser?

Assuming the risk is a point, the entry would have been at 11.50 so the fearful would be out at the upmove at 11:36

 

[niko]

Quote from dbphoenix:

Since he's had no losers so far, why give up?

I mean, give up trying to catch small moves and wait for this to be resolved.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from niko:

Assuming the risk is a point, the entry would have been at 11.50 so the fearful would be out at the upmove at 11:36

But the supply line is not broken at that point, depending on datafeed. Even so, there's a difference between being fearful and being pathological. If he's that fearful, he should probably go out and get a real job. Nonetheless, he's got a 13pt long and a BE long, so he could just quit for the day. He'd still have done better than practically anyone else.

Assuming that he's not quite so gunshy, and assuming that he remembers that he's got quite a lot in the bank from his first trade, and assuming that he doesn't bolt at what appears -- depending on data feed -- to be a break on the supply line, if drawn correctly, and assuming that he sees that the "break" fails immediately, what then?

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from niko:

I mean, give up trying to catch small moves and wait for this to be resolved.

As long as the "small moves" are profitable or BE, there's no reason to stop unless he's just tired. Which is reason enough. But that has to do with him, not with the market. The market doesn't care if he's tired or not. So far there is no chop.

 

[niko]

Quote from dbphoenix:

But the supply line is not broken at that point, depending on datafeed. Even so, there's a difference between being fearful and being pathological. If he's that fearful, he should probably go out and get a real job. Nonetheless, he's got a 13pt long and a BE long, so he could just quit for the day. He'd still have done better than practically anyone else.

Assuming that he's not quite so gunshy, and assuming that he remembers that he's got quite a lot in the bank from his first trade, and assuming that he doesn't bolt at what appears -- depending on data feed -- to be a break on the supply line, if drawn correctly, and assuming that he sees that the "break" fails immediately, what then?

Ok, asuming he stayed in, the trade would have been exited around 10:56 with about 5 points of profit.

Then after the break of SL and a HL he could have entered again in the long side, there are 2 alternatives after that.

1. He exits at the break of DL that would have happened at 11:10,
2. He waits for the 50% level to be taken out, it is just poked, so the trade would still be open

But lets think he is fearful enough to close at 11:10, the DL is broken and no HH so a short will be the way to go at 11:17, it would have been closed with a small loss.

Then a HL comes after the break of SL so a long at 9.25 at 11:23.

I see no way of getting back in the long side before the break of LSH at 12 after the break of the DL at 11:29.