Son of If You Can Draw a Straight Line . . .

[Gringo]

QQQ is close to the overbought trend line. There is a some distance to cover but there is no harm in keeping a keen eye on it. I believe what Db mentioned earlier 3400 in NQ. This level would correspond to about 84-85 in QQQ. Lets see there is enough juice to get there.

Gringo

 

[Huyang]

DB:
Thank you for your advice. I have the basic understanding about trend but not confident so i like to use MA to help me particularly in reversal BO ( i like BO above MA to show buyer or seller's strength ). I am starting the first step in http://www.traderslaboratory.com/fo...85-getting-started-wyckoff-lite-glossary.html

5m at this stage does help me to assess buying pressure and selling pressure. For trading plan, i do have one but cannot say i consistently test it. Even for this trading plan, it should give consistent profit if i had followed it exactly but i just cannot exit because of the thinking of giving more room may work out for me when i feel i need to exit. So i do have a ok sense of assessing demand and supply, trend, R/S, but i have not had a professional trader's mindset --- feel ok to take the loss when i am wrong. So pconsistently testing trading plan following the link developing a trading plan and reading more about supply and demand, trend, R/S should help me on these problems. Thank you.

 

[niko]

An update on Silver G...

I think that the long was viable, but then I also think it would have needed a reentry depending on the entry strategy.

 

[Gringo]

Seems prudent to just wait and let this trading range resolve itself. For shorter term traders perhaps they can squeeze out the juice from this range but with my millions on the line it's not easy to enter and exit so quickly . (It's a joke in case someone gets serious and starts asking for proof).

Gringo

 

[dbphoenix]

I'm done. Incredibly boring day. 2 trades, one a loser (4t) and one a winner (27t). This fouls up the win rate, which was considerably better last April, but this was only five days and April was twenty days. Profit percent was essentially the same, i.e., 92% of the trades were profitable.

Again, the point of all this is not to show what a great trader I supposedly am but to show that if one applies the principles detailed in the first five posts without ego he can be reasonably profitable.

There are, of course, as stated, prerequisites, such as an understanding of demand and supply, support and resistance, and trend. I suppose one could trade with these lines even if he had no understanding of these prerequisites at all, but it would be a bit like trying to drive blindfolded. With ear plugs. And mittens.

But one needn't have years of experience in order to understand and trade this stuff. In fact, the less "experience" one has, the easier it is to understand this. The charts below were drawn by a nine-year-old:

http://cdn3.traderslaboratory.com/f...eading-charts-real-time-7-09-2009-eurjpy.jpg?

http://cdn3.traderslaboratory.com/f...470-reading-charts-real-time-childs-play.jpg?

http://cdn;3.traderslaboratory.com/...eading-charts-real-time-7-23-2009-eurjpy.jpg?

Study the basics: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/fo...85-getting-started-wyckoff-lite-glossary.html. And of course the first sixteen posts to this thread.

Understand demand and supply: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/3876-basics.html

Develop a trading plan: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/15535-developing-plan-trading-journal.html

Or not. It's entirely up to you.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Quote from dbphoenix:

If this question is directed toward me, I have no idea. How does it relate to the content of the thread?

Is it not possible to use the content in this thread to predict or forecast, then?

 

[Gringo]

Quote from Laissez Faire:

Is it not possible to use the content in this thread to predict or forecast, then?

Hello Laissez Faire,

Before I try to explain things away, let me ask you a simple question: Have you read the first few posts? As to your query I am not sure what you mean by predict or forecast in your statement. One can ascertain a higher probability of one event happening over another, after some backward and forward testing, but I am not certain that's what you were asking for. You have a significantly high number of posts here at ET, hence, my thinking that you're not new to trading, and would be able to understand the basics of this quite quickly, even if it may be different from what you normally do for trading.

I would advise you to read the first few posts and then start asking questions. There are related links to topics and ideas that are used for the kind of trading that's being promoted in this thread.

Gringo

 

[Laissez Faire]

Quote from Gringo:

Hello Laissez Faire,

Before I try to explain things away, let me ask you a simple question: Have you read the first few posts? As to your query I am not sure what you mean by predict or forecast in your statement. One can ascertain a higher probability of one event happening over another after some backward and forward testing, but I am not certain that's what you are asking for. You have a significantly high number of posts here at ET, hence, my thinking that you're not new to trading would be able to understand the basics of this quite quickly even if it may be different from what you normally do for trading.

I would advise you to read the first few posts and then start asking questions. There are related links to topics and ideas that are used for the kind of trading that's being promoted in this thread.

Gringo

Yes, I quickly read the few posts.

I'm merely an apprentice and hoped that someone with a better understanding of the market could elucidate me about the most likely direction of the market today or next week based on the principles taught here.

Let's not get caught up in semantics regading what prediction really means. You mentioned probabilities yourself and that is very central in forecasting/predicting.

If you go long, you're forecasting/predicting that price will go up.

If you go short, you're forecasting/predicting that price will go down.

If you're flat, you're either out of margin or do not currently have a valid entry signal.

Some will say that they dont' predict, but anticipate price or what have you, but it's still the same thing. : )

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from Laissez Faire:

Yes, I quickly read the few posts.

I quickly read your question and, no, the principles taught here -- which you're unfamiliar with having read the first few posts quickly -- will not enable you to predict the future course of the market, whether today or next week or next month. If they did, we could all turn out the lights and go home.

If you're interested in learning how to draw a trend channel for the S&P, see the first five posts.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Quote from dbphoenix:

If you're interested in learning how to draw a trend channel for the S&P, see the first five posts.

Already know how to do that.

So, when you go long, you're not predicting that price will go up?