qqq at 86.40 is in my view a short. 86.40 is where it is now.
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Son of If You Can Draw a Straight Line . . .
- Thread starter dbphoenix
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Quote from llIHeroic:
Didn't draw any lines today. Happy about the long at the open,
Just wanted to explore the evidence for the long from the open with you:
Evidence against the long:
Price has been trending down since the R at 0500 ET.
The BO attempt at 0932 failed and was rejected all the way back to S.
The upside retest after the rejection at 0934 fell short of the Opening High and created a LH.
Evidence for the long:
Price tested PM S twice - between 0931 and 0933.
The third test and bounce off S at 0936 started making the LOLR compelling, but I understand you were already in at 0935. Was the test of Support sufficient evidence for you to take the long? That this S occurred at the channel boundary give you the confidence to take a seemingly high information risk trade? Were there other factors?
Quote from llIHeroic:
Something my wife said to me last week has been sticking with me recently. She said that I should just enter at will, and the worst that could happen was that I would be on the wrong side of the market for a bar or two before I realize it and reverse. Makes things seem pretty simple.
That's actually what happened yesterday right at the open, twice in fact, for a 3 point total loss. Easily a price I'm willing to pay in order get in earlier. I probably captured more on that trade even with the tap-dancing than if I had just sat around and waited to get long somewhere around 9:45.
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Quote from game:
Just wanted to explore the evidence for the long from the open with you:
Evidence against the long:
Price has been trending down since the R at 0500 ET.
The BO attempt at 0932 failed and was rejected all the way back to S.
The upside retest after the rejection at 0934 fell short of the Opening High and created a LH.
Evidence for the long:
Price tested PM S twice - between 0931 and 0933.
The third test and bounce off S at 0936 started making the LOLR compelling, but I understand you were already in at 0935. Was the test of Support sufficient evidence for you to take the long? That this S occurred at the channel boundary give you the confidence to take a seemingly high information risk trade? Were there other factors?
Price / Volume cues and the context of the channel I posted earlier were sufficient for me to take the long. I probably would've still done so even without a reference to the context.
You've pretty much hit the nail on the head, it was a high information risk trade. I've slid pretty far down the spectrum as of late. After enough reading, a light bulb finally went off in my head regarding seeing the Price / Volume relationship repeating continually across every chart.
I've gone from Directional Change -> Confirmation -> Entry, to Change -> Entry -> Confirmation.
I feel like this allows me to get in much earlier with no foreseeable detriment. I'm still in the relatively early stages of getting comfortable with the shift but it has yielded quite excellent results thus far.
Something my wife said to me last week has been sticking with me recently. She said that I should just enter at will, and the worst that could happen was that I would be on the wrong side of the market for a bar or two before I realize it and reverse. Makes things seem pretty simple.
*Re-post in order to clarity the attachment a little bit.
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Quote from llIHeroic:
Price / Volume cues and the context of the channel I posted earlier were sufficient for me to take the long. I probably would've still done so even without a reference to the context.
You've pretty much hit the nail on the head, it was a high information risk trade. I've slid pretty far down the spectrum as of late. After enough reading, a light bulb finally went off in my head regarding seeing the Price / Volume relationship repeating continually across every chart.
I've gone from Directional Change -> Confirmation -> Entry, to Change -> Entry -> Confirmation.
I feel like this allows me to get in much earlier with no foreseeable detriment. I'm still in the relatively early stages of getting comfortable with the shift but it has yielded quite excellent results thus far.
Something my wife said to me last week has been sticking with me recently. She said that I should just enter at will, and the worst that could happen was that I would be on the wrong side of the market for a bar or two before I realize it and reverse. Makes things seem pretty simple.
*Re-post in order to clarity the attachment a little bit.
I have been anchoring myself too much to the ideal of 'small losses' and 'precise entries'. The first has led to premature exits and the second to late entries. I need to change my expectations from requiring the trade to immediately move in my favor to requiring the LOLR to remain intact.
Thanks for the detailed explanation. It sparked some new ideas. Looking forward to how you handle the balance between high information risk entries, MAE and the ability to SAR.
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