something wrong with AGQ and ZSL

I don't see anything in the prospectus that indicates that kind of underperformance (although I didn't read the full 200 pages cover to cover). I called Proshares and they literally told me it was a huge arbitrage opportunity. No joke. (PS - I know it's not a huge arbitrage opportunity but I couldn't believe they said that and I'm still confused as to how it could underperform by that much in a day).
 
I agree, at first glance, something seems wrong.

AGQ is -4.55%
ZSL is -5.8%

SLV -0.50%
SI futures down a little bit more.

Yes, I know about the idea of these ETFs matching daily returns, but the idea that both could be down 4% doesn't make sense.

I'm off to investigate ...
 
AGQ down 9.34%
ZSL up 0.46%

SLV down 3.11%

The ZSL movement doesn't seem right to me - I would have expected it to be up more
 
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfun...ver-etf-comes-up-real-short/?mod=yahoobarrons

Case in point: Today the ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF (ZSL) is up 0.5%. That’s a nice surprise, but probably not what most of its investors were expecting considering that the long-only (and non-juiced) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) closed down 3.1%.

“If somebody bought ZSL at the close yesterday, they would’ve had every reason to expect it to make 6-7% today,” said Anthony Welch, portfolio manager at Sarasota Capital Strategies.
 
I *think* I have an answer.

The NAV is set at 7am each day.

At 4pm on Wednesday, silver was at $35.21. ZSL at $21.74

At 7am on Thursday, silver was at $32.66. ZSL range from 24.00 to 24.90.

Therefore silver lost 7.24% during that time, and therefore one would expect ZSL (at 7am Thursday) to be 15.48% higher than the price at 4pm on Wednesday.

21.74 * 1.1548 = 25.10

At 4pm on Thursday, silver was at 34.12. (up 4.47% from 7am)
ZSL was at 21.80.

If we use $24.21 as the price for ZSL at 7am on Thursday, then the 4pm price of 21.80 represents a 9.94% decline (2 * 4.47%).
 
that so many thought there was something wrong with the price, is proof of my theorem.

you know, the one that says 99% of the actors are dingbats.
 
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