Something very simplistic

ctrader · Sep 23, 2002

so far today, paper trading ES using the direction of the previous bar I have +4.50 points.

ctrader · Sep 23, 2002

The 13:23 ES trade was a winner for me.

I have been playing around with http://hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html

For ES, with the stoploss/target ratio, we need 70% win rate. For NQ we need a 60% win rate for this strategy to be a long term winner.

FasterPussycat · Sep 23, 2002

Originally posted by ctrader
The 13:23 ES trade was a winner for me.

I have been playing around with http://hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html

For ES, with the stoploss/target ratio, we need 70% win rate. For NQ we need a 60% win rate for this strategy to be a long term winner.

I am amazed that noone has backtested this system yet??? C'mon you backtesters, It's easy to program! get with it!

ctrader · Sep 23, 2002

ES 15:47 trade... didn't take it because the previous few bars had no direction... ie open=close.

So for the day I have

9 Winners, with commissions that is $40 per winner
4 losers, with commissions that is $70 per loser

Winning percentage is 9/13 = 0.69

Plug that into the trading simulator and that gives me a positive expectation over the long run!

Of course, I don't think this means squat until I get at least one hundred trades in.

Quah · Sep 23, 2002

Originally posted by FasterPussycat

I am amazed that noone has backtested this system yet??? C'mon you backtesters, It's easy to program! get with it!

LOL. It's impossible to program. See the previous posts on this subject.

FasterPussycat · Sep 23, 2002

Originally posted by Quah

LOL. It's impossible to program. See the previous posts on this subject.

i've read EVERY post on this thread... what's the hold-up?

ctrader · Sep 23, 2002

Quah, how were your results today?

macal425 · Sep 23, 2002

Originally posted by ctrader
!

Of course, I don't think this means squat until I get at least one hundred trades in.

One hundred trades is less than 10 days of trading! Not exactly the 'long run'!
I am working on something similar to this but with different time intervals. I'll be looking to forward test this for at least 500 trades (produces 20-25 trades per day), and to manually backtest for at least 3000 trades.

updown · Sep 23, 2002

Someone posted a question a while back about the use of three rather than two parameters in the stochastic, and I don't remember seeing a reply. This page explains it (see section on Full Stochastic):
http://www.stockcharts.com/education/What/IndicatorAnalysis/indic_stochasticOscillator.html

FasterPussycat · Sep 23, 2002

so where the hell are the results for today's trading??? what... you have a bad day so you dont post? this is bullshit. :mad: