Something very simplistic

Status
Not open for further replies.
Hah. By hand? That would drive me nuts. Can picture you, watching the clock on your computer (or do you have an alarm that beeps every fib number) and your indicator, finger on the mouse button over IB's bid/ask - buy or sell, buy or sell, common 1 pt baby!

Computerized auto trading this would be the definite way to go.

It might work with the treasuries too.

A preset cut off point might also be a good idea for the computerized system for off-kilter days, just in case, no point risking 12 losses in a row if you've got 7-8 straight down. Come back tomorrow and keep making your +8. Do you have a plan for this? Or keep chugging away for all fib numbers during RTH.

Lack of coding skills are a bane, and I've signed up for a class. AAA you did something in Tradestation, possible to have a look?
 
the point some people here are making has hit me............

if entering a trade at each fib point using your method is profitable, WHY NOT USE YOUR METHOD MINUS THE FIB TIMING, AS OFTEN AS POSSIBLE?????

why not do it every 10 minutes if it works so good? you can't really say the fib timing is why it is working. that is just the time at which a trade is taking place.

correct me if i'm wrong here

quah, i hope i'm wrong actually! i like ur thinking here.....but i just want to get to the bottom of what is really happening.
 
Think the reason this system works so far is its premise. A non conventional concept (trading a high prob. entry for lower reward than risk- albeit a recognized "wrong" point for the time frame he's trading-short) trading a non conventional time frame. Most indicators update every fixed popular unit of time, 15 min mov avgs don't show pointing up/down until the 15th min bar is over, 60 macd/stoh crosses don't happen till the hour is up etc. When you are trading a longer time frame (I use 5,15,60,120), there will be support/resistance areas on shorter "blocks" of time on a chart. Whether or not these prove to be the ultimate SR the market is looking at, isn't relevant to the system goals IMO. Players layoff abit (unless something drastic happens) at those levels, at least temporarily. Why else would a trade on that longer time frame not continue immediately when all the indicators show it jolly well might. Coz on a shorter time frame, it's hit some sort of resistance point. Players looking at the shorter frame want to do something, while players on the longer waiting for something to happen, the ebb flow continues. That's my take on it anyway. He's the guy that eats into my trade gains (temporarily if it goes my way eventually) when I hold something while looking at a longer term chart.

Someone with testing capabilities might want to verify.

As for your comment on OldTrader's words of wisdom (he's got a notepad doc dedicated to select posts on my machine), this method isn't about discretionary directional trading. It does not involve a flow at all. It is about "noise". Not what you'd want for a primary system and to develop your skills as a trader. But it works for what it is intended for. So far. And should continue to. As for his choice of indicator, stohchastics work well for what most perceive as noise no?
I was curious how TICK might work with this. Axe?
 
Originally posted by Gordon Gekko
the point some people here are making has hit me............

if entering a trade at each fib point using your method is profitable, WHY NOT USE YOUR METHOD MINUS THE FIB TIMING, AS OFTEN AS POSSIBLE?????

why not do it every 10 minutes if it works so good? you can't really say the fib timing is why it is working. that is just the time at which a trade is taking place.

correct me if i'm wrong here

quah, i hope i'm wrong actually! i like ur thinking here.....but i just want to get to the bottom of what is really happening.
More...

Gordon - Those may be the points some people are making, but they are not very well thought out points, are they?

Why would I want to do it any other way if this way works? That makes no sense at all. You imply that I must be able to explain why something works before it can actually work. Hogwash.

Why not use this method, minus the fib timing, as often as possible? Well, first - there is no need to - doing it with the fib timing meets the goals I have set. One of the goals is to not be in the market very much at all. I don't want to sit around all day glued to a PC. Is it possible to make some changes to this system that would allow it to make more money? Maybe. Probably. But I don't care - that isn't my only goal here.

I don't see any need to defend a system by being required to explain why the system *doesn't* do certain things. That's nuts. The system will speak for itself - it will either meet the goals I have set out to accomplish with it, or it won't.

Honestly, I'm totally perplexed by this line of questioning. If you ask these question about every method you come up with, you will end up never trading anything.

With that - I'm going to stop defending the method. That's nuts and it's a waste of my time. I'll be glad to discuss it and post my results - but I'm not interested in defending it - again, that's not one of my goals. Either it meets my goals or it doesn't. You can't change those facts.
 
Originally posted by spectre
As for his choice of indicator, stohchastics work well for what most perceive as noise no?
I was curious how TICK might work with this. Axe?
More...

Thanks again for your comments - you understand my line of thinking here very well.

Actually, TICK works very well with this - even a stochastics on a one minue TICK seems to work well. Like I said originally, I don't really think it matters much what second indicator you use as long as it is one you like, and of course as long as it works. I dont think it matters what you use to decide direction as long as it works for you - doesn't need to be T/A.

If you'd like, I'll turn over defense of this system to you :) . Your ability to explain is far better than mine. :)
 
Originally posted by illiquid
Also sounds like this method concentrates your trades during the opening minutes when volatility is greatest -- does that +1 target/-1.25 stop really give the chosen indicator a chance to work outside of pure noise?
More...

I don't know, and don't care. Does it have to work outside of pure noise? I don't see that listed as one of the goals of my system.

I don't know for sure that trading those time DOES give me an edge. I sure can't prove it does. But I can tell you this - if I trade this system on the open of every single one minute bar, it loses money bigtime.

So does than mean the times give me an edge? You tell me.
 
I'll say one more thing then I'll shut up. :)

I've looked at using systems from simple to complex. I've done things from neural networks to even coding my own "noise" suppression filters using audio compression algorithms. I've looked at various "drawing on the chart" methods. I've used almost every possible bar size - minute and tick based. I've had systems based on 5 minute bars were my PC couldn't finish calculating the current 5 minute bars signal before the next 5 minute bar finished.

I've come up with a lot of things that appear to be able to make money, and a lot that never had a chance. I've traded many of those that appeared to make money and made money - and lost money. Most of the time the reason I lost money it was because I couldn't strictly follow my own system. I am a firm believer that there are many winning systems, but some people simply can't trade them. The only real winning system is one that can win and one that does win when a person trades it. Having a winning system that you can't force yourself to trade doesn't mean much.

I may be totally wrong here - but I think part of the resistance to a simple system like this is that people don't want to believe that something this simple is possible. Again, I'm not saying that this works for sure at this time. But if you are like me, and spent a shitload of time trying to come up with a profitable system that you could trade - using all sorts of T/A and computer power, and study from the "experts", and conforming to the supposed "must" rules such as "let your profits run" - you don't really want to see some system as simple and stupid as this actually work - and work as good as the Genetically Optimized Neural Network Super Crossover Divergence system that you spent years developing.

I think there is room in this game for all sorts of systems. From very simple to very complex. I have no doubt that there are winning systems across the range. But if you can't trade them - the are not winning.

I have a tendency to want to gamble. I know myself well enough to know that I'll probably never be able to consistently trade a system that has anything more than a smidgen of discretion. And thats okay with me - because there is more than one way to be profitable at this game.
 
Originally posted by Quah


Gordon - Those may be the points some people are making, but they are not very well thought out points, are they?

Why would I want to do it any other way if this way works? That makes no sense at all. You imply that I must be able to explain why something works before it can actually work. Hogwash.

More...


Because what you seem to be implying is that the fib timed entry is the key to your system, where to me if you are profiting well, it is your reading of the stochastics or whichever indicator you are using which is really giving you the edge, not some random time pattern.

If you found a system that made 10pts per trade on avg, then threw in some random factor (flip a coin) -- heads you cut your profit at 3, tails you leave your target at 10 -- then claim that the coin flip is the key to this still profitable system -- does that make sense?? You could call it the "coin flip" profit system which took on avg 6.5/trade, yet all you're really doing is messing up a system which took 10 instead.

Get the point? :D
 
Quah, i would like to see this system of yours play out over a period of time. would you be so kind as to post your results each day for the next month or so?


btw, thanks for posting
 
Originally posted by illiquid



Because what you seem to be implying is that the fib timed entry is the key to your system, where to me if you are profiting well, it is your reading of the stochastics or whichever indicator you are using which is really giving you the edge, not some random time pattern.

If you found a system that made 10pts per trade on avg, then threw in some random factor (flip a coin) -- heads you cut your profit at 3, tails you leave your target at 10 -- then claim that the coin flip is the key to this still profitable system -- does that make sense?? You could call it the "coin flip" profit system which took on avg 6.5/trade, yet all you're really doing is messing up a system which took 10 instead.

Get the point? :D
More...


No, I'm not implying that the fib timed entry is the key to this system. I'm not saying that anything at all is the key to this system. Does it really matter what the key to the system is or if there even is one?

All I'm doing is presenting an idea for a system. It either works or it doesn't. I don't care why it works if it does. I'm not making any claims at all.

You coin flip analogy doesn't make any sense anyway - it would only make sense if the system randomly chose the times everyday. There is no coin flip here - everything stays the same everyday. Besides, you could say the same thing about any system - ask why certain parms where picked, etc. Why does one person say a 5 minute chart is better than a 250 tick chart? Why would a 250 ticks chart be better than a 248 tick chart? No one could give you an answer for that that you could actualy verify logically.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top