Something very simplistic

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Originally posted by Gordon Gekko

are you saying if i enter a long trade at 10, my stop is at 9 and my target is at 100, that my chances of being right are 50/50? obviously not. please correct me if i misunderstood you.
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No, I wasn't trying to say that at all - I wasn't very clear. I'm saying exactly the same thing you are saying - I just didn't say it clearly.

I'm saying you can't look at any system and say that it has a 50/50 chance of being profitable. Once you include a "system" in the mix, you can't assign a statistical chance to the trades - maybe subjective odds - but anything other than total randomnes (as you said) precludes the 50/50.
 
look at this exchange:
Originally posted by profitseer
Just one thought on a 50/50 trade. Lets say it's at 50 and there is a 50% chance it will go to 40 and a 50% chance it will go to 60. If you guess long and your wrong, you aint gonna let it go to 40 with you on board. Maybe you will just ride it down to 48. But if you guess right and it goes up, you ride it the full expectency of the 50/50 trade you started out with.

So it's 10r to 2r on a 50/50 trade.
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Originally posted by Mr Subliminal
It was a 50/50 trade with risk:reward of 1:1 till you started meddling with it. Your "premature" exit at 48 doesn't fool the Numbers Deity and will occur with a frequency that is 5 times larger than your exit at 60, putting you back to square one with your original 1:1 risk:reward.
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it was later suggested by someone that you should exit and reverse at 48 and increase the size of your position.
:confused:
 
It's really amazing for me how people can make money consistently in the emini's trading purely on a single technical indicator mechanically. I suppose it's a huge advantage to be able to allow a program to do all the work and take the human element out of it. That said, what's the logic behind fibonacci-style entry points, especially if you're using a separate indicator for entry? I would guess that restricting any trader to certain windows for trading would help to alleviate overtrading, but is there any other advantage? Assuming you're using some indicator, I would think that you'd have to skip many good signals from that indicator simply because it doesn't fall into a specified bar? I guess I'm missing the point?
 
Originally posted by illiquid
Assuming you're using some indicator, I would think that you'd have to skip many good signals from that indicator simply because it doesn't fall into a specified bar? I guess I'm missing the point?
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I guess it depends on what you consider "good signals". The only good signals with this system occur on those specific times - period. Is that logical? I have no idea. It is logical in that I can logically explain what the rules are. Are they good rules? Only time will tell.

The time is simply another indicator.
 
interesting system - i have don a little bit backtesting. I have used exact the time you give us in your 1st post.

I've played around a while with stochastic mcd rsi the best I can get is this one over 300 days.

WITHOUT SLIPPAGE AND COMISSION!!!!

Corse there are times when the system workes but more often ........

TAKE CARE !!!!

MW
 

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Originally posted by moonwalker
interesting system - i have don a little bit backtesting. I have used exact the time you give us in your 1st post.

I've played around a while with stochastic mcd rsi the best I can get is this one over 300 days.

WITHOUT SLIPPAGE AND COMISSION!!!!

Corse there are times when the system workes but more often ........

TAKE CARE !!!!

MW
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I'd be curious to see the trades your backtesting produced for today. Can you post them?
 
Originally posted by moonwalker
I do not feed every day the tradestation with data. This result are historical results last year and 300 days back.
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If you can't see the trades the backtesting system is making - how can you tell that it is following the system?
 
Quah this is a very unique approach to the market! You are definately thinking "outside the box" with this one...

I am a little confused though; Are you not just simply making random entries or am I missing something? How are the fib time intervals providing you with any kind of an edge?

Thanks in advance for answering my questions :)

PEACE and good trading,
Commisso
 
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