Something is not right..
- Thread starter frostengine
- Start date
Helene Meisler @hmeisler 
The news that's come out past 6 months would have nuked the market in the 80's and early 90's, technology has nationalized the equity market under full approval of our government. The biggest pocket can hold the bag forever till they decide it's in their interest to inflict pain on the masses.
Look what has happened in Japan they effectively own 50% of the market.
3/17/17 ..
When is it in the best interest, when bonds/notes yields get to such a level, they need to create artificial demand by flight into safety.
If Trump decides to go after multinationals, it will cascade into a huge growth hit.
Look what has happened in Japan they effectively own 50% of the market.
3/17/17 ..
When is it in the best interest, when bonds/notes yields get to such a level, they need to create artificial demand by flight into safety.
If Trump decides to go after multinationals, it will cascade into a huge growth hit.
Last edited:
It takes a while for the market to distribute from smart money to dumb money.
When corrections start, the psychology of the market is complacency and most bears have pulled the towel. I was one of the first bears in 2015....I saw what I needed to see that probabilities were in my favor of bears taking control ....however it took almost 5 months of chop before the huge move in August 2015. And during that whole time....I was thinking to myself why the hell is the market not going down?
Just keep a close eye on volatility.....as when fear starts moving ahead of the ES, that is when the collective whole of equilibrium starts moving along with your thought.
Trump is bad for Wars, Sexism, Racism, Science, Health Care, Global Warming, Gay Rights and more I'm sure.
But that's nothing anyone with money is going to worry about, he sounds like he's going to be good for business and making the $$$$'s which is all the market cares about.
Fake Spray Tan, that's what to invest in
But that's nothing anyone with money is going to worry about, he sounds like he's going to be good for business and making the $$$$'s which is all the market cares about.
Fake Spray Tan, that's what to invest in
Not as orange, mad totally but in less of an evil sociopathic way thankfully not no.1.
2017 is going to be either interesting or very short for many on the planet, find out soon.
(IMO) You aren't missing a thing.
As noted earlier, August 2015 had us sliding up the "Wall Of Worry" with seemingly no actual worries[!]..... and everyone similarly scratching their heads. At least, I was scratching mine. I was scratching mine so much that, upon embarking on an impromptu vacation -- high into mountains where cell reception would be but a dream -- I exited all bottom-side positions. Cost a couple of dollars, but ... down-side surprises are rarely announced, and we'd seemed primed for one...... So the hit was taken, and off I went.
Upon returning to the edge of civilization (marked unimaginatively by gaining cell reception), I idly tuned in Investing.com, and my jaw dropped, at the *beginning* of what would last for another 72?? hours. China had messed with the yuan. WOW.
I smell the same thing going on now. I am letting a lot of inventory expire or be zeroed-out margin-wise, in preparation for some sweet, sweet vol pop. I am seeking to be poised and ready. Before the BREXIT vote, before the FED meeting and the election, I saw massive changes week-to-week in option premium. I don't see that now. Scary.
FWIW, rather than selling verticals, go with broken-wing butterflies, with short delta between |.20| and |.25|. By owning that front strike, you will vastly reduce your vol exposure, and eventually, even turn it positive.
Good post, as is Sceptre's above yours. Some basic internal indicators (something as simple as percentage of S&P 500 stocks above 20,50,200 day MA) typically show the same patterns. Breadth peaks very early out of the "cycle" lows (as it did in March, July and again around late November). Then the market chops around for weeks/months (see August-early Sept) before the rug is pulled. Basically, the market will spend most of the time within spitting distance of the former swing highs, all the while volatility is next to nil and then WHAM it falls apart in one session (typically a Friday).
Even that August 2015 event that you referred to had the market making some parabolic new highs in the indicies just a few weeks prior.
These markets just "feel" illiquid as hell.