Nice answers...welcome to two months ago.
I thought you were asking real questions....My bad.
I thought you were asking real questions....My bad.
Someone give me a VALID reason that the market should go down?
- Thread starter hairdresser
- Start date
Sounds emotional.
Because:
Things aren't 40% better than they were on March 9th.
Much of the rally was on better than expected earnings. However, the better than expected earnings resulted from cost cutting on <i>lower revenue</i>. Companies won't be able to continue to cut costs, so future earnings are going down as well.
Much of the rally is probably dumb money coming back in. Dumb money tends to bail toward the bottom of large slides like the one in February and come back after a significant run up just in time to buy at the top. When the dumb money is finished flowing in, the bids will disappear. Note the flight from treasuries at the same time.
There is renewed "confidence" (for dumb money) from further restrictions on short selling. An inability to sell short contributes significantly to asset bubbles.
This rally is happening on very low volume and concentrated in relatively few stocks.
Finally, let's remember that the Nikkei had the same run-ups during Japan's prolonged recession. Some better-than-doomsday economic number or "stimulus" would come out and drive the Nikkei up 40% over a period of a couple of months and then it would just sink back down again. If we're lucky, we'll get Japan. If we're not lucky, we'll end up like Japan where the overhang was so large that no amount of money printing could soak it up. If we're unlucky, with Fed printing money at warp speed, we'll end up like Zimbabwe. But either way, the market isn't going straight up to where it was before and staying there.
Things aren't 40% better than they were on March 9th.
Much of the rally was on better than expected earnings. However, the better than expected earnings resulted from cost cutting on <i>lower revenue</i>. Companies won't be able to continue to cut costs, so future earnings are going down as well.
Much of the rally is probably dumb money coming back in. Dumb money tends to bail toward the bottom of large slides like the one in February and come back after a significant run up just in time to buy at the top. When the dumb money is finished flowing in, the bids will disappear. Note the flight from treasuries at the same time.
There is renewed "confidence" (for dumb money) from further restrictions on short selling. An inability to sell short contributes significantly to asset bubbles.
This rally is happening on very low volume and concentrated in relatively few stocks.
Finally, let's remember that the Nikkei had the same run-ups during Japan's prolonged recession. Some better-than-doomsday economic number or "stimulus" would come out and drive the Nikkei up 40% over a period of a couple of months and then it would just sink back down again. If we're lucky, we'll get Japan. If we're not lucky, we'll end up like Japan where the overhang was so large that no amount of money printing could soak it up. If we're unlucky, with Fed printing money at warp speed, we'll end up like Zimbabwe. But either way, the market isn't going straight up to where it was before and staying there.
I'm guessing that he recognized your disingenuous. In this forum will get the answers to your questions that you deserve.
disiginunious. In this forun
Disingenous/forum.
I just want real answers from what I can see the market is going up on its own accord. Maybe people think 8K is cheap.
Disingenous/forum.
I just want real answers from what I can see the market is going up on its own accord. Maybe people think 8K is cheap.
March used to be the pivotal point of the bear and bull course in the major ebb and flood tide. The below historical facts are those that come to my memory that I have been lived through.
- March 2000, the high was reached.
- March 2003, the low was reached when US decided to go on Iraq war.
- March 2009, the low was (to be confirmed later) reached. Let see...
- March 2000, the high was reached.
- March 2003, the low was reached when US decided to go on Iraq war.
- March 2009, the low was (to be confirmed later) reached. Let see...