Some thoughts on Nassim Taleb and risk

Sig said:
What I took out of AntiFragility was all about designing systems that could handle external shocks of the unknown unknown variety. I have no doubt you took out of it exactly what you stated, and if you asked someone else who read it they would say something different from both of us. Like I said, that's the beauty of being a rock thrower instead of a builder, you can be all things to all people!
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OK, we'll agree to disagree.
 
Maverick74 said:
I'm assuming you career started in banking no? I might be mistaken. My apologies if that is so. I don't work in banking nor have I ever. Yes, I'm surprised you disagree with his core ideas that those in society who take the most risk bear almost none of the consequences. Society at large has to bear them. But they get most of the gains. A free call option if you will. A nice gig if you can get it I agree. But it does distort things. His research on fragility I think is fascinating and applicable to many things, even outside finance. I'm not sure what you disagree with him about since you left that part out. His core research outside of black swans which is really a natural extension of his theory of fragility.
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As I have stated many many times here, I am not now, and neither have I ever been, a banker. Thus I'd suggest to you that my industry and your industry are, broadly, one and the same.

I don't disagree with the various ideas that he has discussed. I fundamentally disagree with the statement that they are "his" ideas. He is loud, he's obnoxious, he's self-contradictory, he's a shameless self-promoter, etc etc. Most importantly, he's not even that original; he just shouts the loudest, which, unfortunately, drowns out a lot of the more interesting and meaningful voices. Other than that, I don't got a problem with him.
 
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Sig said:
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Of course he is the kind of person who can get you to believe that he agrees with your core view and me to believe he agrees with my core view and Tom to believe he agrees with Toms's core view simultaneously, while you, me, and Tom all disagree vehemently! That's a luxury you have when you're a rock thrower rather than a builder, which is sadly what he's become. At this point I put up with the tedium of a bunch of chest thumping and rock throwing to get to a few of his points I think are valuable, but I'd so much rather he just dispensed with all that and grew up a little.
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This is precisely it. One difference is that, unlike yourself, over the years I have concluded that all his affectations and gimmickry are not harmless.
 
Martinghoul said:
As I have stated many many times here, I am not now, and neither have I ever been, a banker. Thus I'd suggest to you that my industry and your industry are, broadly, one and the same.

I don't disagree with the various ideas that he has discussed. I fundamentally disagree with the statement that they are "his" ideas. He is loud, he's obnoxious, he's self-contradictory, he's a shameless self-promoter, etc etc. Most importantly, he's not even that original; he just shouts the loudest, which, unfortunately, drowns out a lot of the more interesting and meaningful voices. Other than that, I don't got a problem with him.
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My apologies. I thought you have worked in a bank in the past. Duly noted now.
 
question for those of you that have his Fooled by Randomness book:

on pg 62, he states that the converse should be true. Really? The converse.. or did he mean to say the contrapositive.. then not construct it right?
 
Martinghoul said:
Did what?
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Actually I reread it and see that I misread. I thought you were doing an awesome job of the backhanded compliment, i.e. my affectations and gimmicks are harmless where as Taleb's aren't. I think you were actually saying that I see them as harmless and you don't, which is a fair enough point, just not the cleaver insult I thought it was!
 
Sig said:
Actually I reread it and see that I misread. I thought you were doing an awesome job of the backhanded compliment, i.e. my affectations and gimmicks are harmless where as Taleb's aren't. I think you were actually saying that I see them as harmless and you don't, which is a fair enough point, just not the cleaver insult I thought it was!
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No insult was intended at all. I was actually quite happy that you summarized a lot of how I feel about NNT quite eloquently.
 
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