Quote from Epic:
I think Obama had to unleash hard and early given the situation, but I don't think it's time yet for Romney to start spending. If I were him I would wait till after the first debate. It seems like many people are treating modern politics the same as those of the last hundred years. It no longer takes several months to get a message out and change public perception.
If I were to advise him, I would tell him to do his best not to add fuel to any fires. My suggested responses would be very much like Ali and Rocky. Put up very little defense, while at the same time actually taunting Obama. "Is that all you've got?" This accomplishes two main things. 1) Make the person on defense actually look like they are in control of the game. Changing the perception from HUGE devastating attacks to silly desperate flailing. 2) Encourages the opponent to waste even more resources and get even more outlandish.
During this time, give very little information to the opponent in terms of what your policies might be. Let them try to hit you even harder with old news. Take the drop in the polls in stride, just make sure that you maintain that stature of taking a hard hit and then taunting. Absolutely refrain from wasting any resources on trying to counter.
From now through Sept, ads should all be positive and hope filled. "Americans are great, and America will be great again". Nothing about Obama. Once we get to Oct... Good debate performances and a one month spending blitz. Hard, accurate, and ruthless in both advertising and debating. No time for opponent to adjust and defend. In the modern media world, one month is plenty when you are working with $500MM.
You make some very good points. The down side of that approach is you run the risk of letting your opponent construct a public persona of you that will be hard to shake. i believe it is happening already. Most voters, even republicans, are beginning to think of Romney as a callous rich guy who made a lot of money through financial engineering and Gordon Gecko-type asset stripping.
The republicans used to be pretty good at creating an unattractive persona of their opponents. You could ask Mike Dukakis, Al Gore and John Kerry about it. For some reason, the geniuses running McCain's campaign didn;t want to go there. I fear the same thing happening again.
Romney's task is pretty simple: he has to make the election a referendum on Obama, Obama's record and his fitness to be president. That isn't happening because Romney is busy responding to smear ads.