If you interested I will wager $10,000 that we won't take 2014 lows in 2015 in SPX.
Some say it's going to get worse before it gets better
- Thread starter djmartin
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If you interested I will wager $10,000 that we won't take 2014 lows in 2015 in SPX.
Dry Ships Index closes the loop around pretty muchly the world economy. It looks pretty bad out there folks. Welcome to the Obama economy! Nobody anywhere is going to raise rates. It could be a few years before anything resembling an actual world economy comes on the scene. Stockcharts only has 5 years of data on DRYS, if somebody has longer term data I'd love to see a chart going back a few decades.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
You think one Greek shipping company is a sign of the world economy? Good luck.
I suppose what you actually meant was the Baltic Dry Index which hasn't really moved anywhere since 2012. I could just as easily use Maersk as an indicator, it's close to the 2007 levels and significantly higher since 2009.
From what I understand, the capacity has increased faster than demand, therefore the price stability.
Honestly, there have already been two boom/bust cycles in the past 15 years (and we are in the process on the third)...I just can't have sympathy for investors that don't look for some alternative to sitting out the markets when they go south...The past due date on this "inflate at all costs" mentality has run out.
LOL, I live on the border, I see what goes on each day here, we have a Border Patrol agent every 3 blocks along the Rio Grande River for 30 miles and the "wets" still tunnel, chisel through recently concreted pipes, so gross runover where river has so little water this time of the year. The Border Patrol agents has stopped the 15,000 per day that were captured but the other 100,000 coming along for day work they couldn't capture, but now with armed agent, drones, ground sensors and cameras, it come down to 500 who don't get through, but hugely down than what use to be. You could never leave hose attached to the house without it gone missing next day or see door open when you went to grocery store. Hell, I never needed to buy a new computer cause of age, back then I had slide out hard drives when I left the house. You don't see Canadians jumping over fences to get in USA.
Many wonder why stay, housing cheap and history proves eventually houses go up in value, when houses went down in value few years ago, we had 4% slide, and weather is nice here, not perfect but acceptable and no state income tax.
Most media are democrats, if Hillary was a Republican, she would have had to withdraw way before now. "Many things have changed for the better since 1930", I don't think this at all, we were not 17 trillion in the hole as they are telling us when I really think we are over 30 trillion. 1950s all you needed to have a good life was one earner on the family and now two isn't enough. The amount of kids Caucasians having now is hugely reduced by abortions as they were able to afford much more and getting away from religion and taking birth control, whereas Hispanics, AA and especially Muslins are pumping them out in record amounts, Muslins often having five wives for sole purpose of reproducing.
If you look at the square miles of the country, it is Republican and Democratic rules in big broke cities and it is going to get far worse. Chicago is nearly broke and need huge tax increase to stay even.
I am going to get a farm and electrify the fences and say so cattle can't get out, have signs in English and none of that press 1 BS, sit on my stockpile of blueberries, grains and Angus range fed cattle, hell, might even build a baseball field. Where did I put those claymore mines....
Yea its true, all true. When I said things have changed for the better I was thinking about knowledge..in that most level headed, heads up Americans have enough information to see it coming today and have a little time to reach whereas back in 1929 they never saw it coming..didn't have a chance and got run over by a silent freight train.
But yea, what you are saying in your post...very true.
I know they had charts back then as I have charts in late 1890s in wheat, so I found charts of 1929 crash, and if you just used weekly charts, plain and simple close below pivot low and before huge crash, but what I doubt most of ET members realize, that was nothing if you look at monthly charts as markets went on down so much more after October crash of 1929.
Way too many bucket shops back then and so many traded on margin, the margin is what slaughtered many of people who should never have traded in first place, like most who read a day trading book over weekend. LOL
Way too many people don't believe in history, history often repeats itself.
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The quote from Scat sum's it up.
No light weights here telling you how it is: the moderator at this annual event (the link below) is from Bloomberg and tells you in the first minute of the video what the theme of the discussion is and the three present to address it. If I had my way, I would make every adult and teenager in America watch it. I assure you, it would be a game changer for those running for federal office with a (finally) informed electorate asking hard ball questions of candidates. Everyone would know the tide just went out and who is swimming naked.
Just as effective, this video if it were to be seen by every illicit border crosser before crossing would make him/her pause , "Maybe I should be careful about what I am asking for, this going into the U.S."
Quality of life is going to be slipping dramatically IMO over the next 15 years. You haven't experienced pain until your country is paying interest on debt that consumes 50% of the budget, and the other 50% shakes everyone into knowing how to spell a-u-s-t-e-r-i-t-y. If you have children or contemplating doing so, hopefully 15 years is not too far away to connect the dots allowing you to finally see how vulnerable their safety will be inside the country and from threats coming from outside of it. Thanks, Mom. Thanks, Dad.
If the link doesn't work, search for the Peter G. Peterson 2015 Financial Summit (video 58 minutes).
Jun 21, 2015 · Interview with: Alan Greenspan - Former Chairman Federal Reserve, Richard Fisher - Former Dallas Fed Chairman, Larry Lindsey - Former Chief of staff
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Margin in the '20s was crazy. Traders could buy on margin, deposit the paper shares in a bank, borrow on them and use the money to buy more shares on margin. Rinse and repeat and probably could attain to some hugely leveraged positions...
Oh yeah, hugely mismanaged public sector is a burden the private sector can't carry. All the budgets of all the public sector entities total to more than half the GNP and all the public sector entities are saying that they don't have enough money. We could give them all the entire GNP and they still wouldn't have enough money! Democrats think that raising taxes some more will fix it. They are idiots, there is no fixing it. We don't need to know anything beyond that to see that the future is grim.
We watched as the public sector grew and it took not one job to support a household but two, now two isn't enough and morons want to tax us further. It took us decades to get to this unimaginable place but we're here and wherever you go there you are.
You guys buys stock on margin-didn't you know that? You think crediting an account with 200% buying power to buy overpriced crap is sensible? The most sensible investment is your home- do home lenders offer 200% mortgages? Ever wonder why?Because it makes no sense -Wall street does not want people owning property, they want you poor in rented condo's. The stock market is the slaughterhouse for the innocents and most people will never see their money back-the marklet has gone nowhere while property has gone up 400%+