some of the Market Wizards are taking hits.

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Wow,
A real donny brook...Tony/P2 and who ever else can put his money where his mouth is. I'll bet that there will be betting all across town and between towns for that matter. Now we'll see where the bear shits and the grass grows. I can hardly wait! Dum da, dum da, dum duda dee dee (Old Irish jingle). I've got $99.00 on Tony!:)
 
Because I don't have the time to do it this year. I am committed to training my 18-year-old brother to become a stock trader. He starts next month. Consequently, all extra time that I have is devoted to teaching him. I don't have extra time to narrate my trades every day and post them on the web, so I won't be able to deliver maximum value to the $99 paying subscriber. I'm sure you can understand that.

I also think that we will need at least six months to promote the event. After all, we will be doing it for good cause, so I want to make sure that the charity will get paid well for the time we are going to put in during this challenge.

Can we count on your $99.00 Gabriel, even if we start next year?

Tony
 
... Margin may be used up to 2 to 1 only. ...
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Huh? Why this restriction. A retail account allows for 4:1?

...Start fresh on 1/1/03. ...
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I also don't get this - what difference does it make if you start tomorrow or next year - The trades prior to the day you start would not be counted. Unless there are tax reasons, I don't see any issues.

Tony Your the Man, Excellent idea!

If if could trade a PA, I'd consider eating humble pie and take the challenge.

As for the cost of observing:
Would my $99 bucks go to make a wish as well?

Prae no offense but my moneys on Mr. Oz.
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Def, I do not know much about Tony, and Tony, no offense, but Def I will take the other side of your trade...

nitro
 
Huh? Why this restriction. A retail account allows for 4:1?

Because a disaster can happen when leverage like that is used even on ETF or holding 12 stocks in the same sector. Remember, we cannot have more than 35K in one stock, so I don't see a reason we will need 400K in buying power intraday. If we put all the money we can into the market at 2 to 1, it will mean 6 stocks. I think it will be fair to say that most traders cannot manage more than six open positions effectively. Consequently, I don't see how this will handicap us. On the contrary, it will make our returns more real.

I want to make sure everyone understands that I don't see this challenge as an ego challenge of who is going to be a better trader. The way I see it is as a gold mine for everyone. You will have three (maybe more) experienced profitable (historically) traders who will teach their methods on a daily basis and open up their trading record for everyone to see. In return, kids who need funds to make a wish come true will benefit. So, us traders will give back to the unfortunate kids and give back to the trading community as well. A win/win situation for everyone. I hope to have some other big names participate as well.
 
Originally posted by Pabst
Not to drop names, sic.

Those "out" or going

Dennis
Baldwin
Julian Robertson
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gosh...

sorry for hearing that...

unfortunately i believe that robertson isn't going to care too much about that assessment...

not with a realized private net worth of usd 1 bill and a great performance for his investors over decades until he suffered a stiff drawdown and closed his funds...

but, he had always been extremely volatile, and he is 69 years old now, a billionaire, why on earth should he have continued?

nor, i suspect, would dennis mind too much, who should have quite a bit left over from his usd 200 mill...

and who most certainly would never have built such a fortune out of usd 400 if he had remained a local on the floor achieving the amazing returns that he'd had there that however were not compoundable...

only when he became an upstairs trader who made full use of compounding did he start growing his fortune...

i'm with def on this...

an annualized return that is compoundable is the exclusively only way to go if you're after the __big__ money.

big ups, big downs.

small downs, small ups.

that's all it is, really.

cheers
 
Originally posted by Commisso


That is impressive :-) or is it???

Moving that kind of size and achieving those kind of results is EXTREMELY aggressize and requires big leverage and big risks IMO

There is usually a flaw in their risk and exposure calculations... One rare event and they are gone...

I think a market wizard by the name of Seykota once said "There are many bold traders and many old traders BUT very few old and bold traders!"

PEACE and good trading,
Commisso
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Why is moving "that kind of size" considered being extremely aggressive? Are you suggesting that someone playing with big size (say, $100mil, for arguments sake) cannot play within the boundaries of conservative risk management ( eg, risk no more than 2%/trade)? If so, why?

And why does someone with the above mentioned size require "big leverage"? In fact, I would even say they don't require ANY leverage.

The "big money" USUALLY gets their risk and exposure calculations wrong? "Usually"? What happens to us once our accounts get big? Why do we suddenly become morons, incapable of not only not adhering to, but unable to even calculate, basic risk management?

As far as rare events, six sigma events, Black Mondays and the rest go, sure, big money is gonna have a bit more trouble exiting than me with my 1k shares of QCOM. But why is immediately assumed that on such a day, you are gonna be on the wrong side of the market? Isn't there an equal chance that you could benefit from such a move? I think so. The market doesn't know what position you have on, the market doesn't care, the market is not out to get you. Suggesting that big money's exposure is increased because of the possibility of a 'rare event' just doesn't make sense to me.

On another note, Darkhorse, you say Seykota's strategis aren't doing so well? I wonder then if, as he says in MWizards, he is getting what he wants from the market? ("everybody gets what they want from the markets...")

(That Seykota quote about old and bold traders - I'm pretty sure that comes from one of the world wars, where pilots used to say the same thing.)

Has anybody heard anything about Mark Weinstein (to me the most remarkable Market Wizard.) This guy had an accuracy rate of like 99%. I'd love to hear how he's going.

Daniel
 
I don't want anyone to think that my silence is a sign of avoiding a challenge. I am still currently on vacation and don't have that much time to use a pc. I agree with Oz, this isn't a challenge of who is a better trader, at least between the 2 of us. I admit quite freely that he is the better trader. There's no question of that in my mind.
I'm still willing to participate in a challenge against a few other traders. Just the 2 of us sure seems like a duel of some type. My main concerns (there are a few), is the disclosure issue. I just can't afford to post my trades on a webpage. A lot of what I'm now trading is incredibly illiquid. I often trade setups on stocks that trade at under 200k shares a day, and some are stocks under $5. I feel that to post these trades, I would sacrifice a significant edge that I have in the market as most people don't know how to trade these situations and avoid them (not to mention the legal implications of me typing about positions in illiquid penny stocks on a public forum).
I have no qualms with having my results publicly audited, but I know that just giving my closing account balances daily would really defeat the purpose of this whole challenge as a way to teach people.
I don't know if you're still interested. If you are, I'm still game. Most of your other rules seem good to me I guess, but It will cramp my style a bit. I often take positions of over 100% of my trading account home. I also enjoy the 4:1 margin I get intraday, and 2:1 overnight.
I'm sorry i have these conditions, but I want to keep my trades anonimous.
 
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