Some observations on scalping Crude

No there's a bold, bold statement by someone older and wiser than myself!


I find this post particularly interesting because hail-marys like this are called often on this board, but are almost never right and are hardly ever called by someone with as much experience as yourself.

Here's what I have to ask you..in a market which is more likely to gap on opens than not, what do you see happening if 62.20 IS breached, seeing as this is a relatively likely possibility?
 
Quote from jjgallow:

No there's a bold, bold statement by someone older and wiser than myself!


I find this post particularly interesting because hail-marys like this are called often on this board, but are almost never right and are hardly ever called by someone with as much experience as yourself.

Here's what I have to ask you..in a market which is more likely to gap on opens than not, what do you see happening if 62.20 IS breached, seeing as this is a relatively likely possibility?
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Remember I'm strictly looking at the eMini Crude. 62.200 isn't "MY" critical Resistance level but 62.400 & 62.500 are. I'm seeing weakness all over this top and though this call is a little aggressive it is still valid.

I guess I'm getting feisty in my old age. :cool: Playing at the top is not smart but I have some short term confirmations I'm looking at. 61.350 & 61.100 are my initial downside targets. I keep the STOPS tight to give me plenty of room to breath on the outside. "I trade to make money, I don't trade to make my broker money or to stimulate the economy" ME :p

If we do take out the 62.500 top then 64.125 will be the next target to the upside.

I love this environment.
 
Quote from OldTrader:

You're looking at the March 1 data, which is showing the overnight range up to now. What you need to look at is the previous session....just use your link then click on previous session. That shows the 24 hour range. I show the low today (2/28) during RTH at 60.30, high 62.05. That's a range of 1.75, or $1,750 per contract.

OldTrader
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Thanks a lot. I figured it out last night. Wow, $1,750 for 1 contract on a 1.75 move? That equates to $10 for a penny move. Am I seeing this correctly?

I know I've been sounding like a fool lately. That's because I have no idea about the cl or any other futures. Just trying to learn.
 
Thanks ProfLogic,

I really appreciate the further analysis.

I am..of course...hoping for the other direction, but oh well.

I'd love to know what kind of technicals you trade with.
 
Quote from jeffowy:

Thanks ProfLogic,

I really appreciate the further analysis.

I am..of course...hoping for the other direction, but oh well.

I'd love to know what kind of technicals you trade with.
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Here is Short Term Swing Chart. I usually trade a little slower term than this.

I use Volume Bar Charts instead of Minute or Tick Charts. No Fibs, No Elliott and No Gann, simply price and a single indicator (Ergodic) used ONLY to CONFIRM the creation of tops (Resistance) & bottoms (Support). Then I simple compare each oscillation, top or bottom, to it's sequential counterpart both at extreme (Prime) levels and minor levels. This gives me a consistent and ongoing read as to price direction and the strength of each move between each resistance to support and support to resistance oscillation.
 

Attachments

Re-Evaluated E-Mini Crude this morning right before Market open and saw that it did Breach 62.200 but Matched 62.400, my longer term SHORT TRIGGER. I entered short anyway from the 62.300 oscillation failure but readjusted the STOP to 62.450.
 
Hi guys

thank you to everybody who took a look at my blog . I really appreciate the time you took to read my analysis. All your comments,suggestions, and questions are very welcome. I'm not always on ET but you can reach me at lionelk@mail.com. Again thank you for your time.

oh yeah... I just updated my blog. Tell me what you think. DOn't be afraid to leave comments.


www.liofmc.blogspot.com

have a great weekend :)
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

Re-Evaluated E-Mini Crude this morning right before Market open and saw that it did Breach 62.200 but Matched 62.400, my longer term SHORT TRIGGER. I entered short anyway from the 62.300 oscillation failure but readjusted the STOP to 62.450.
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Short Swing exit and reverse on OPEN as long as 59.675 is not Breached in the overnight. 59.725 Stop.
 
You count me in as bullish..

thanks for the great charts...

I'll be the first to admit that I don't fully understand them.


It appears you have MACD, and then a black trendline...

would love to know more about that.


Anyway,,,, cheers!
 
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