Some bad mojo in the air

Martinghoul may not be a fed defender, but I am very much one -- the Bernanke fed that is, not the Greenspan fed. Even though Bernanke was a governor when Greenspan was Chair, these two are as different as oil and water. Greenspan is a "libertarian economist" whereas Bernanke is a "new Keynesian". You can't get much more different than that!

Ben Bernanke should be recognized for his outstanding leadership of the fed through an extraordinarily difficult period. And now the tapering is being handled with, again, extraordinary skill. I wouldn't expect anything other than a continuation under the competent hands of Yellen. It was time for a correction in the U.S. Market in any case -- it's healthy.



When the Nazis came to power the most pressing issue was an unemployment rate of close to 30%. The economic management of the state was first given to respected banker Hjalmar Schacht. Under his guidance, a new economic policy to elevate the nation was drafted. One of the first actions was to destroy the trade unions and impose strict wage controls.

The government then expanded the money supply through massive deficit spending. However at the same time the government imposed a 4.5% interest rate ceiling, creating a massive shortage in borrowable funds. This was resolved by setting up a series of dummy companies that would pay for goods with bonds. The most famous of these was the MEFO company, and these bonds used as currency became known as mefo bills. While it was promised that these bonds could eventually be exchanged for real money, the repayment was put off until after the collapse of the Reich. These complicated maneuvers also helped conceal armament expenditures that violated the Treaty of Versailles.

According to economic theory, price control combined with a large increase in the money supply should have produced a large black market, but harsh penalties that saw violators sent to concentration camps or even shot prevented this development. Repressive measures also kept volatility low, reducing inflationary pressures. New policies also limited imports of consumer goods and focused on producing exports. International trade was greatly reduced remaining at about a third of 1929 levels throughout the Nazi period. Currency controls were extended, leading to a considerable overvaluation of the Reichsmark. These policies were successful in cutting unemployment dramatically.

Most industry was not nationalized, however industry was closely regulated with quotas and requirements to use domestic resources. These regulations were set by administrative committees composed of government and business officials. Competition was limited as major companies were organized into cartels through these administrative committees. Selective nationalization was used against businesses that failed to agree to these arrangements. The banks, which had been nationalized by Weimar, were returned to their owners and each administrative committee had a bank as member to finance the schemes.

While the strict state intervention into the economy and the massive rearmament policy led to full employment during the 1930s, real wages in Germany dropped by roughly 25% between 1933 and 1938.[7] Trade unions were abolished, as well as collective bargaining and the right to strike.[8] The right to quit also disappeared: Labor books were introduced in 1935, and required the consent of the previous employer in order to be hired for another job.[9]

The German economy was transferred to the leadership of Hermann G
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20061024182500AAbTBrL
 
And? Or should I say "Was noch?"

Obviously, I wasn't allowing nearly enough time for the Euro and Dollar to move closer to parity. Perhaps by the end of 2016, depending on the pace of tapering??? On the other hand. :D
 
Agreed. It is, in large part, a correction of the QE period of unnatural risk pricing, or mispricing, as the case may be as QE begins to wind down. Which is, essentially what I have been saying.
Or is it no more complicated than the market's anticipation of a stronger dollar? (Markets can be wrong of course. There is no more bogus myth than "the markets are always right". They are only right relative to your being wrong when you've let yourself be caught on the wrong side of them.)
 
imagine if you went to the bank to pay a mortgage payment 5 yrs ago and they said we have no record, so for 5 yrs you didn't pay, you were waiting in the back of your mind knowing they would one day figure it out, waiting for the other shoe to drop,if it's not now. it;s still going to hapen
 
All our common experience leads us to believe it will happen. But when? Predictions, especially about the future!, are risky.
 
Turkish central bank hikes a surprisingly massive shock and awe 425bps and the Lira rallies, only to be higher than pre-announcement less than 24 hours later. ZAR same thing - suprise 50 bps hike and it's tanking. Aussie getting pummeled. All of this on the worry of a mere 10B fed tapering. When Turkey goes, Greece is next, and then watch the dominoes go.

And people think the Fed can exit QE? What a laugh.
Of course they can, but let's not get into guessing the rate or time period.
 
The Fed cannot continue to print money but they cannot seem to withdraw it either. The economy and markets have gotten so used to it that it’s going to cause problems whether or not QE continues.
 
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