Software beats humans at Commodities trading

[MGB]

http://www.msnbc.com/news/528131.asp?0nm=B1BP

"IBM’s Thomas J. Watson research facility is famous for pitting computers against humans and having the computers win. For example, the company’s Deep Blue supercomputer trashed chess world champion Garry Kasparov at his own game. Now Big Blue itself sets its silicon wits against commodities traders."

An interesting read.

MGB

 

[Grabbit]

That's a dead link, but you probably mean this:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1481000/1481339.stm

and/or this:

http://www.newscientist.com/hottopics/ai/botsknock.jsp

One thing is for sure: if such a thing works, it'll be VERY expensive!

 

[tymjr]

I quit.

 

[Grabbit]

Hehehehehehehehehehehahaha!

 

[tntneo]

Remember these threads about system trading and automation of trading and supercomputer thing ?
well.. told you !

AHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHA !!!


neo

PS : IBM never intended to make money with a computer which can play chess. You had to know what they really had in mind.

 

[andrasnm]

Chessmaster 3000 at a "high gear" is very hard to beat !!
So Big Blue showed nothing. Trading futures and chess has
a much in common as driving a Ferrari versus a Chevy Pickup
truck. Having said this a good software taken out the "human
element" could possibly be a success in one market. Ie.
have a sp index trading software that can't be used for say
currencies. Most trading error is what we make of them; we
simply said - "fuck up".
Having sid this; the main problem is that even if you had a
program you would tend to second guess it ie. it would
have to run on "auto pilot" without the possibility of
human intervention !!! Oh yeah !!!!

 

[jaan]

Originally posted by andrasnm
the main problem is that even if you had a program you would tend to second guess it

i belong to a group that does fully automated trading, and - at least for us - second guessing is not a problem at all.

think of it this way: an automated system is like an expert trader with an excellent track record. you usually don't second-guess an expert, especially when all his decisions are supported by historical probabilities.

- jaan

 

[TraderJimR]

In the article

Computer giant IBM pitted robotic trading agents, known as "bots", against humans in trading commodities such as pork bellies and gold.

The bots made 7% more cash than the humans, according to a report in New Scientist magazine.

But since none of the humans were investment professionals, traders will argue that it is too early to consider replacing them with machines.

Why would they even want to do this without using investment professionals? I'll bet my dog could've beat whatever clowns they chose to make the computers look good. I'll wait to be impressed.

-Jim

 

[tymjr]

Now that'd be a contest! Dog vs. Clown. Whoa! I'd pay to see that one.

 

[andrasnm]

jaan
can i ask you what your group trades ? I would guess futures
also i know that any true program need a very deep pocket
I mean seven zeros !!!!!!! anyway welcome to my nightmare
- us daytrading on a shoestring