Soft Commodities
- Thread starter PohPoh
- Start date
I examine a series of futures charts. I notice a divergence in price curves of near and distant sugar futures prices.
Il Principe
Guest
For true commodities, you need to to really pay attention to the underlying SnD. Cocoa, for instance, is entering its 3rd consecutive crop yr of a supply deficit. Spreads are the preferred vehicle of all the major players(spec and non-spec), so right now everyone is long the front/short the deferreds.
One possible interpretation is the price trend is changing.
Attached is a corn futures price chart from year 2005. As of 29 August 2005 the price of a contract for delivery of corn in December 2006 shows an upward trend while the futures price of corn for delivery in December 2005 shows a downward trend. The multi year continuous futures price chart at the bottom shows what happened next. Corn futures price values began increasing and the big bull market in corn of year 2006 and 2007 followed.
FWIW, your charts about corn relative to the bull move is useless. Sardine traders know what a bull mkt is about and why. How relative were the previous crude oil charts when the price shot up to 145 a barrel?
Loose, sloppy, hot money supersedes supply and demand everytime. Not to mention that grains are dependent on weather and there is a LEAD element involved.
Grain mkts are tricky if one is not informed. ........................................... SOYBEANS: A drier weather outlook
for Argentina coupled with bullish technical
momentum propelled CBOT soybean
futures to 3-month highs Friday. The market
soared to new move highs, extending
its recovery from a 5-month slide from alltime
highs in July 2008. The market added
risk premium as dry weather concerns in
South America stoked fears of major
drought damage to the Argentine soybean
crop if the dry trend persists. As the dry
forecast continues for Argentina, the market
has found an underpinning force to
keep upside momentum flowing, said Dan
Cekander, analyst with Newedge LLC in
Chicago. Technical buying played a key
role in extending the marketâs upside push,
with bullish traders encouraged by most
active contractâs ability to eclipse major
moving average resistance. Nevertheless,
legitimate fundamental support served as
the dominate issue, with outlooks for a
bullish slant in Mondayâs U.S. Department
of Agriculture crop reports adding strength,
a cash connected CBOT floor broker said.
CBOT March soybeans finished 46 1/2
cents higher at $10.36.
Loose, sloppy, hot money supersedes supply and demand everytime. Not to mention that grains are dependent on weather and there is a LEAD element involved.
Grain mkts are tricky if one is not informed. ........................................... SOYBEANS: A drier weather outlook
for Argentina coupled with bullish technical
momentum propelled CBOT soybean
futures to 3-month highs Friday. The market
soared to new move highs, extending
its recovery from a 5-month slide from alltime
highs in July 2008. The market added
risk premium as dry weather concerns in
South America stoked fears of major
drought damage to the Argentine soybean
crop if the dry trend persists. As the dry
forecast continues for Argentina, the market
has found an underpinning force to
keep upside momentum flowing, said Dan
Cekander, analyst with Newedge LLC in
Chicago. Technical buying played a key
role in extending the marketâs upside push,
with bullish traders encouraged by most
active contractâs ability to eclipse major
moving average resistance. Nevertheless,
legitimate fundamental support served as
the dominate issue, with outlooks for a
bullish slant in Mondayâs U.S. Department
of Agriculture crop reports adding strength,
a cash connected CBOT floor broker said.
CBOT March soybeans finished 46 1/2
cents higher at $10.36.