So whats up with this sell off 9-20-2021

Relentless said:
Depends on Europe session.

If we open up huge my shorts go right back on. But otherwise yes - a short term bounce is a no brainer... Or is it? :sneaky:
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I think everything depends on the Feds. So if I were you, I would hedge the shorts a little, just a little. Tomorrow is most likely going to be an up day though so if you want to put your shorts on (with hedge), I would wait until at least Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning EDT.
 
JSOP said:
I think everything depends on the Feds. So if I were you, I would hedge the shorts a little, just a little. Tomorrow is most likely going to be an up day though so if you want to put your shorts up, I would wait at least until Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning EDT.
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Mark my words.

Fed meeting = snoozefest.

Vol will come from everything but this barring Powell shoving his foot in his mouth. He won't though.. he's a good little puppet.
 
Relentless said:
Mark my words.

Fed meeting = snoozefest.

Vol will come from everything but this barring Powell shoving his foot in his mouth. He won't though.. he's a good little puppet.
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ok well then you need to be even more careful with your shorts. Cuz barring from Powell saying something outrageous, the market will go up especially with the market still on track to be re-opened.
 
JSOP said:
ok well then you need to be even more careful with your shorts. Cuz barring from Powell saying something outrageous, the market will go up especially with the market still on track to be re-opened.
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Appreciate the heads up Nostradamus.
 
You do not see the magnitude of this. Lehman was mostly an US-only story, Evergrande and the chinese real estate market aren't. If real estate prices drop many banks begin to worry about other banks getting close to default which implies credit shortages and thats where the risk lies. It wasn't about Lehman in the end but about trust. Lehman - US, China - worldwide for scale
 
David's faith said:
You do not see the magnitude of this. Lehman was mostly an US-only story, Evergrande and the chinese real estate market aren't. If real estate prices drop many banks begin to worry about other banks getting close to default which implies credit shortages and thats where the risk lies. It wasn't about Lehman in the end but about trust. Lehman - US, China - worldwide for scale
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Yeah but how many "other banks" are invested in the Chinese real estate market or have given money to Chinese real estate developers? The problem with Lehman was that all the banks in the USA including european banks were invested in the US real estate market and not only with cash but in derivatives as well. At the end, it was actually the derivatives that amplified the bad debt and fraudulent mortgages that did it in. How many derivatives even exist from this Evergrande? That's right. Zero.

So this is just hyped-up volatility. If you are short, I strongly suggest you hedge or get yourself covered. This Evergrande s*** is really confined to China and China only, at least this time, thank god. And this also illustrates one more time the importance of decoupling from and weaning ourselves off China. And it proves how right George Soros is on investing in China. Blackrock is shitting itself right now because it holds Evergrande bonds with the CCP's bailout not coming. Why would it? Why would CCP be willing to give more money to the West? The company is not state-owned, not state-run. It couldn't care less.

And yet Blackrock and Goldman Sachs are giving more money to China. Imagine some s*** like this happens in the future then we will really be screwed.

Buy local! Invest local!
 
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JSOP said:
Yeah but how many "other banks" are invested in the Chinese real estate market or have given money to Chinese real estate developers? The problem with Lehman was that all the banks in the USA including european banks were invested in the US real estate market and not only with cash but in derivatives as well. At the end, it was actually the derivatives that amplified the bad debt and fraudulent mortgages that did it in. How many derivatives even exist from this Evergrande? That's right. Zero.

So this is just hyped-up volatility. If you are short, I strongly suggest you hedge or get yourself covered. This Evergrande s*** is really confined to China and China only, at least this time, thank god. And this also illustrates one more time the importance of decoupling from and weaning ourselves off China. And it proves how right George Soros is on investing in China. Blackrock is shitting itself right now because it holds Evergrande bonds with the CCP's bailout not coming. Why would it? Why would CCP be willing to give more money to the West? The company is not state-owned, not state-run. It couldn't care less.

And yet Blackrock and Goldman Sachs are giving more money to China. Imagine some s*** like this happens in the future then we will really be screwed.

Buy local! Invest local!
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Aren't Blackrock and Goldman "local"?
I read that those bonds are dollar denominated and have foreign investors holding some of them.
I am not expert but I wouldn't consider China so far away and disconnected from the rest of the world.
The west already made the mistake of doing so with the covid spread, and now it got worse than the spanish flu.
Also in 2015, China issues caused quite some volatility everywhere.

Then, how about if they let the banks take the hit, following their "common prosperity" motive?

and last, can the Fed do anything to contain an eventual global crisis caused by China?
 
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