So whats the real story about commercial real estate?

R

retaildaytrader

The IYR, a collection of different commercial real estate stocks, keeps thrusting upward. I asked a real estate agent tonight what she thought of NYC commercial property and she said it basically sucked.

I do trade derivatives of the IYR in and out for choice swing trades, however, I dont know the first thing about commercial real estate. I do see business picking up around where I am located. Restaurants and other businesses seem to be full.

The IYR is nearing 2007 levels...so I wonder, what is the real story about commercial real estate? Is the IYR and the other real estate stocks simply trading vehicles and do not reflect the real fundamentals? Are the fundamentals really this bullish?
 
The only way out of the mess the US is in is through inflation. Commercial real estate is "holding up" because interest rates are so low. If rates rise... the property market will crash and bring down many other asset classes with it. Therefore... the US has no choice but to print US dollars, keep interest rates low, and allow inflation (and time) to repair the debt-holder's balance sheets.
 
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