So what works then?

[ktm]

Good to know indexes work for you. Care to give details? For me managing (rolling, repairing) iron condors in SPX were almost killed by commissions. Doing three repairs in a row would barely put me in the plus after commissions. And I use Interactive Brokers, cost can't get much lower I guess.

I only trade the ES futures options these days, and with the VIX where it is and the skittish mode we're in - pretty much a week or less. I'm looking to put on some Monday expiry spreads this afternoon.

You need enough potential in the initial setup to overcome any adjustment hits. The biggest problems I've had over the years were too much exposure and too much time left on my positions. There was a time where I feared where the market would go and I could get run over - and I did get run over. In the current environment, you should have a setup that will benefit a good bit from more of these sudden shocking moves.

 

[ironchef]

Selling slightly OTM puts looks the best in terms of number of winners/losers, but assignments are killers.

IMHO, if you focused on winners/losers you missed the boat. Focus on expectancy instead.

And, let me provide this as food for thought: Given positive expectancy, with high win rate > 90% but with occasional huge drawdown/wipeout, what is the right approach to trade?

In this case, it seems to me trade often, trade small will likely lead to ruin because I have a 1 in 10 chance of wipeout. So, perhaps I want to leverage to the hilt, make only a few trades, (since the odds are in my favor 9:1), I collect my wins and retire, like a true gambler?

 

[Corto]

... Focus on expectancy instead.

And, let me provide this as food for thought: Given positive expectancy, with high win rate > 90% but with occasional huge drawdown/wipeout, what is the right approach to trade?

In this case, it seems to me trade often, trade small will likely lead to ruin because I have a 1 in 10 chance of wipeout. So, perhaps I want to leverage to the hilt, make only a few trades, (since the odds are in my favor 9:1), I collect my wins and retire, like a true gambler?

ironchef, I appreciate you're trying to help, but please be more explicit. I can see the ingredients, can't follow the recipe.

 

[TheBigShort]

maybe tomorrow you should walk through a trade on ET. In detail. Strikes, fill price, fair value, reason for trade, evidence/research of fair value etc etc.. that should get the clock turning.

 

[Junkou]

Obviously this system works perfectly:

 

[MACD]

Obviously this system works perfectly:
View attachment 195759

"Obviously"

 

[Handle123]

I think I'm good enough at reading charts and I choose my candidates based on retracements, oversold stochastic, MACD histogram divergences, etc. Problem is when market goes down, almost everything goes down.

If you were able to read charts well, you would not use stochastics, MACD. If you were able to read charts well, you be able to point out areas that are showing topping or bottoming price action. Indicators are only to be used once you know what the indicator should do in relationship to price and when it does not, that is a divergence from the norm. But divergences in abnormal volatility distorts what should be the norm. Do you even know just using price what it must show up to cause divergences in indicators? Once you can see these patterns, you won't use indicators 90% of then time, Indicators will show divergences that not show up in price, where indicators help is in programming for automation and when abnormal realities exist, in other words price does something to show masses trend has change but it has not.

 

[ironchef]

ironchef, I appreciate you're trying to help, but please be more explicit. I can see the ingredients, can't follow the recipe.

Think playing Russian Roulette. If you really want to play, best strategy is to only play once, bet everything you have on it and your odds are >83% you will win. If you keep playing, you know the outcome.

 

[erensenez]

"Hello!" - Especially for new join.

 

[zenostiffler]

You would be better of studying spoor than charts.