So what will send this rally over the cliff?

[hitchslap]

at a guess we've got about another 80-90 ES points of quite relentless upside to go before any sort of correction.

 

[TILT2]

Quote from Maverick74:

No, people don't think like that. ET thinks like that. The avg Joe on the street comes home from work at night and looks at his stock holdings. The more they go up, the more conditioned they become to "expecting" them to go up. Human beings are not mean reversion thinkers. Our minds get conditioned by repeated behavior over and over. That is how we learn as child to do almost everything in our lives. Think about it, when you come to a stop light and it's red, you don't say to yourself I'm going to fade this red light, you stop your car. If you are on a diet and you lose weight, you don't start eating junk food because your weight is oversold and needs to go higher. Human beings are creatures of belief. Whether it's religion, politics or marriage, it all hinges on belief. And the more we see something happen, the more we believe it will continue. That's thousands of years of evolution for you.

ET is a small community that thinks in terms of being a contrarian. If something is up too much or down too much, we think the easy money is to fade it. But that is because you are so so focused on every tick and the short term. The trillions of dollars that are invested in the market don't and can't think like that. But at some point, the weight to one side can become very lopsided. Too many people in the room so to speak. And then you get a short term high or low. But this rally has been questioned, faded, doubted, hated and completely ignored for a long while now.

Fwiw, the ISEE is holding steady at 200 today. Would be nice to see it close near 250 on the equity side and 175 to 200 total.

Where does trillions of money come from? Surely the public don't have such power as the working class's wage has been overally declining for the past years. So Fed is the biggest buyer. This time, does public sentiment really matter?

 

[MAESTRO]

The correction will happen when the absolute majority of market participants totally accepts the capitulation to the upside. That is how it works. Until then any top pickers will be buried.

Cheers,

MAESTRO

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from Maverick74:

No, people don't think like that. ET thinks like that. The avg Joe on the street comes home from work at night and looks at his stock holdings. The more they go up, the more conditioned they become to "expecting" them to go up. Human beings are not mean reversion thinkers. Our minds get conditioned by repeated behavior over and over. That is how we learn as child to do almost everything in our lives. Think about it, when you come to a stop light and it's red, you don't say to yourself I'm going to fade this red light, you stop your car. If you are on a diet and you lose weight, you don't start eating junk food because your weight is oversold and needs to go higher. Human beings are creatures of belief. Whether it's religion, politics or marriage, it all hinges on belief. And the more we see something happen, the more we believe it will continue. That's thousands of years of evolution for you.

ET is a small community that thinks in terms of being a contrarian. If something is up too much or down too much, we think the easy money is to fade it. But that is because you are so so focused on every tick and the short term. The trillions of dollars that are invested in the market don't and can't think like that. But at some point, the weight to one side can become very lopsided. Too many people in the room so to speak. And then you get a short term high or low. But this rally has been questioned, faded, doubted, hated and completely ignored for a long while now.

Fwiw, the ISEE is holding steady at 200 today. Would be nice to see it close near 250 on the equity side and 175 to 200 total.

Not sure I agree entirely with your analysis, but that aside, the number of average Joe's in this market, or with money to get into it, is significantly lower than the past. Now it's all HFT, some retail, and sovereign wealth funds.

 

[riskaddict]

if the bottom was 666 the top should be 1666. It only takes one powerful sob to see the whimsy of it and pull the trigger.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

Not sure I agree entirely with your analysis, but that aside, the number of average Joe's in this market, or with money to get into it, is significantly lower than the past. Now it's all HFT, some retail, and sovereign wealth funds.

No, HFT makes up less then 1%. The hedge fund industry alone has north of 10 trillion. Mutual funds have about 4 to 5 trillion. I think RIA assets are close to 3 trillion. Family offices probably close to 5 trillion. And guess what. If you look at mutual fund data and hedge fund data you will see massive under performance. Meaning, they are NOT in this market. Most are seriously under invested and begging for a pullback. Their jobs depend on it. There is no shortage of money out there. Then add in to the mix all the money flows from over seas. I think China alone has over 2 trillion invested in stocks in this country.

Let me be clear, the correction will come and it will be severe. I've been at this for 17 years. Market tops and bottoms usually are marked by extreme pessimism or optimism. It's not an exact science and it's not to the exact tick or the exact day, but broadly speaking that principle has held up since the days of trading under the Buttonwood Tree in NY in the 1800's.

 

[stock777]

usually threads started by recent registrations are fos.

 

[clacy]

You need to let the market tell you what it's doing, rather than you telling it what you think it should do.

Markets are designed to make the vast majority of participants wrong most of the time.

Stop reading Zero Hedge and listening to Jim Rogers. Sit back and watch what the market is doing.

For the better part of the last 4 years, the market has been telling me that if I'm not long, I'm wrong. I see no signs of that changing imminently.

At some point, all hell will break lose, but that point could be 10 years from now.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from Maverick74:

No, HFT makes up less then 1%. The hedge fund industry alone has north of 10 trillion. Mutual funds have about 4 to 5 trillion. I think RIA assets are close to 3 trillion. Family offices probably close to 5 trillion. And guess what. If you look at mutual fund data and hedge fund data you will see massive under performance. Meaning, they are NOT in this market. Most are seriously under invested and begging for a pullback. Their jobs depend on it. There is no shortage of money out there. Then add in to the mix all the money flows from over seas. I think China alone has over 2 trillion invested in stocks in this country.

Let me be clear, the correction will come and it will be severe. I've been at this for 17 years. Market tops and bottoms usually are marked by extreme pessimism or optimism. It's not an exact science and it's not to the exact tick or the exact day, but broadly speaking that principle has held up since the days of trading under the Buttonwood Tree in NY in the 1800's.

I hear everything you say, and I've listened to folks say things aligned with your comments, and different from them, all claiming vast amount of years in the market, and none have ever seen a market with the Fed in this deep. It changes the variables completely.

I guess we'll see. Thanks for the insight.

 

[Grandluxe]

Quote from ktm:

Every day, we stay "glued to the ceiling" in terms of being at the high of the day and just pushing and pushing and pushing.

It's actually my fault because I have been mostly short this thing from around 1500. I have this power. When I give up, we will turn.

Damn....