So what will send this rally over the cliff?
- Thread starter etfarb
- Start date
9/28/11 ISEE reading of 53 (this is total ISEE). Within a week we put in "the" swing low after the major 30% correction after the debt downgrade. Never saw those lows again.
3/26/12 ISEE reading of 182. The very next day would mark the swing high before the spoos dropped 150 handles over the next 3 months. That was june 4th. Just 3 days later, we get a low ISEE reading of 60. That was the swing low before we rallied 200 handles over the next 4 months.
9/14/12 ISEE reading of 205. That exact day was the swing high before selling off 130 handles over the next 2 months.
1/17/08 ISEE reading of 60 two days before the swing low of 1260 before a 200 handle rally.
3/10/08 ISEE reading of 56 two days before a 200 handle rally off the swing lows.
Those are some that stick out.
Maverick, sometime i just wonder why our thinking are so close and are we both clone??
As long as we have those bear outside that calling for tops, the market still in bull.
There are "so many bears" because everyone knows the underlying economy is shit and unemployment has never been higher at this point in a supposed recovery. Everyone knows the stock market is in fantasyland without central banks. Without QE, the S&P would probably be at 1,000 level today instead of 1650.
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
Prior to the bursting of the credit bubble, the public was shocked to learn that our biggest investment banks were levered 30-to-1. When asset values fell, those banks were quickly wiped out. But now the Fed is holding many of the same types of assets and is levered 51-to-1! If the value of their portfolio were to fall by just 2%, the Fed itself would be wiped out.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatsp...s-on-its-way/2/
So, the govt is forced to manipulate the market, otherwise it must declare bancruptcy....
Because the market is manipulated by the computers and can only go under the designed or pretermined model. Once the trend starts, it won't finish until the trend is completed. That's the only reason of market's going up.
Who programmed or designed the model? Ask the US government, Barrack Obama, or Ben Bernanke. Because the US stocks can't fall(collapse), if it falls, everything else will fall one after another, that's the crumbling of the financial world. Check the chart in 2011 and compare with the 2008, you will find it should have been collapsed in 2011, but the price action in the week(26.11.2011 - 03.12.2011) has changed the pattern because they have programmed the model to alter the trend.
I could be banned here, but I have to speak the truth out.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatsp...s-on-its-way/2/
So, the govt is forced to manipulate the market, otherwise it must declare bancruptcy....
Because the market is manipulated by the computers and can only go under the designed or pretermined model. Once the trend starts, it won't finish until the trend is completed. That's the only reason of market's going up.
Who programmed or designed the model? Ask the US government, Barrack Obama, or Ben Bernanke. Because the US stocks can't fall(collapse), if it falls, everything else will fall one after another, that's the crumbling of the financial world. Check the chart in 2011 and compare with the 2008, you will find it should have been collapsed in 2011, but the price action in the week(26.11.2011 - 03.12.2011) has changed the pattern because they have programmed the model to alter the trend.
I could be banned here, but I have to speak the truth out.
So wait a second, isn't that intuitively impossible? What I mean is, the higher the market goes on absurdity without any meaningful correction, doesn't that make it more and more likely for people to expect a meaningful correction? So isn't what you're saying the definition of infinity?
No, people don't think like that. ET thinks like that. The avg Joe on the street comes home from work at night and looks at his stock holdings. The more they go up, the more conditioned they become to "expecting" them to go up. Human beings are not mean reversion thinkers. Our minds get conditioned by repeated behavior over and over. That is how we learn as child to do almost everything in our lives. Think about it, when you come to a stop light and it's red, you don't say to yourself I'm going to fade this red light, you stop your car. If you are on a diet and you lose weight, you don't start eating junk food because your weight is oversold and needs to go higher. Human beings are creatures of belief. Whether it's religion, politics or marriage, it all hinges on belief. And the more we see something happen, the more we believe it will continue. That's thousands of years of evolution for you.
ET is a small community that thinks in terms of being a contrarian. If something is up too much or down too much, we think the easy money is to fade it. But that is because you are so so focused on every tick and the short term. The trillions of dollars that are invested in the market don't and can't think like that. But at some point, the weight to one side can become very lopsided. Too many people in the room so to speak. And then you get a short term high or low. But this rally has been questioned, faded, doubted, hated and completely ignored for a long while now.
Fwiw, the ISEE is holding steady at 200 today. Would be nice to see it close near 250 on the equity side and 175 to 200 total.