So what will send this rally over the cliff?

E

etfarb

This rally is disgusting. The end of today marks a 10 day run on the american indices. I got interested in going short last week after some clowns front ran the market on "good data" to give this rally the its current leg up.

Whats it going to take for gravity to kick in? Must the yen start rising (Because we all know thats not happening anytime soon)?

I thought 1640 on the ES will be the ceiling and 3000 on the NQ but now i;m questioning how far is left to run.

I would love to hear some feedback in what you think its going to take for this rally to stop a bit and pull back and how far do you think the ES and NQ have left to run

BTW both the VIX and LIBOR have been creeping higher, these are signals that things are changing, regardless nothings happeneing yet
 
I think the market has bluffed hard enough to scare anyone wanting to short it. I been wrong constantly calling for a good time to short this market and been 100% wrong every time. I'd be surprised any shorts left who have the appetite to be short in a big way.
 
Quote from bluematrix:

I think the market has bluffed hard enough to scare anyone wanting to short it. I been wrong constantly calling for a good time to short this market and been 100% wrong every time. I'd be surprised any shorts left who have the appetite to be short in a big way.
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these shorters are not goona sell the top.

Shorters that will short when time comes will be recruited from current longs.
 
Quote from toolazy:

these shorters are not goona sell the top.

Shorters that will short when time comes will be recruited from current longs.
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so are we at the top in your mind?
 
there is a ton of bad news no growth, no chance of government passing budget, no quality jobs, and no good economic data. this is not fundamental its all fear of missing the move.
 
Quote from etfarb:

This rally is disgusting. The end of today marks a 10 day run on the american indices. I got interested in going short last week after some clowns front ran the market on "good data" to give this rally the its current leg up.

Whats it going to take for gravity to kick in? Must the yen start rising (Because we all know thats not happening anytime soon)?

I thought 1640 on the ES will be the ceiling and 3000 on the NQ but now i;m questioning how far is left to run.

I would love to hear some feedback in what you think its going to take for this rally to stop a bit and pull back and how far do you think the ES and NQ have left to run

BTW both the VIX and LIBOR have been creeping higher, these are signals that things are changing, regardless nothings happeneing yet
More...

Here is the deal. I watch the sentiment readings like a hawk. Especially since we have blown through every technical level known to man. And the fact is, there are still too many bears. Market tops happen usually when everyone is leaning too long. I watch AAII and the ISEE index and as shocking as it is, a majority of people out there are either hedged or bearish. I'm waiting for a spike in these readings and they are just not happening. Even CNBC is bearish. Everyone keeps talking about the correction. Well, until the last bear covers and gets long, this probably has more upside. The ISEE indicator usually is spot on btw. I have found nothing that pinpoints the major swing highs and lows as well as that index and it's telling me everyone is either hedged or tepid in their bullish stance.
 
Let me see IF I have got your thinking straight.

You see what you interpret as bad news and you think it should cause the markets to tumble.

Have you considered that you have had nothing but bad news for several years, but the markets keep climbing --- and they keep climbing because the FED is printing money as fast as it can to purchase crappy assets from their criminal members (banks) so they can invest in a market and take it higher?
 
Quote from da-net:

Let me see IF I have got your thinking straight.

You see what you interpret as bad news and you think it should cause the markets to tumble.

Have you considered that you have had nothing but bad news for several years, but the markets keep climbing --- and they keep climbing because the FED is printing money as fast as it can to purchase crappy assets from their criminal members (banks) so they can invest in a market and take it higher?
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I do...

But i'm not saying hey why the hell hasn't the ES dropped to 1400 or the NQ to 2600, what i am saying is every up move experiences speed bumps along the way; however, i have not seen anything like this yet. Even January wasn't this wild
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Here is the deal. I watch the sentiment readings like a hawk. Especially since we have blown through every technical level known to man. And the fact is, there are still too many bears. Market tops happen usually when everyone is leaning too long. I watch AAII and the ISEE index and as shocking as it is, a majority of people out there are either hedged or bearish. I'm waiting for a spike in these readings and they are just not happening. Even CNBC is bearish. Everyone keeps talking about the correction. Well, until the last bear covers and gets long, this probably has more upside. The ISEE indicator usually is spot on btw. I have found nothing that pinpoints the major swing highs and lows as well as that index and it's telling me everyone is either hedged or tepid in their bullish stance.
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Maverick,

thank you for your insight as always.

- Where you read your sentiment readings from?

-How do you derive your technical levels? I'm not sure if 3000 is a resistance level for the NQ but everytime the NQ hits a whole number area (minus 2900, since we jus tblew threw that) there has been some selling pressure

I will have to do some research on the ISEE to understand it but thank you for sharing
 
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