So, what is the end game with this never-ending U.S. public debt?

[piezoe]

How and when is this going to end? Somehow the economy grows enough to support the debt? Or at some point creditors get the shaft, either to their face (only get some % of their principal), or behind they back by the government just printing $$$ left and right to pay back the debt with a currency that is now greatly inflated?

Its go to somewhere. Your thoughts?

I'd recommend reading modern money theory as a starting point. Reading is best, but you can glean some understanding from the many YouTube lectures and round tables held on this subject. Just search MMT.

Here are a few places to start. After that, read, read and read some more.

 

[zdreg]

How and when is this going to end? Somehow the economy grows enough to support the debt? Or at some point creditors get the shaft, either to their face (only get some % of their principal), or behind they back by the government just printing $$$ left and right to pay back the debt with a currency that is now greatly inflated?

Its go to somewhere. Your thoughts?

Venezuela today.
Germany in the 20's

 

[eurusdzn]

US deficit spending is worse for the world than is Euro, Yen, Yuan,Zimbabwe debt.
A bag of sugar, loaf of bread, equity, oil, gold, real estate become more expensive
and the people,will have less.
Other countries/currencies will peg, follow, fold,and experience the same.


Safe haven = USD
All else including Gold = firesale
Back in 2008 crash, safe haven was $ & Yen[/QUOTE]

Yup, and US debt was and will be a safe haven as well.
Hopefully the fed and the market can get the long rate up north of 4 , 5 or 6%. That and the knowlege, belief that they can and will go back to near zero will feul a monster demand for US gov. assets.
End game is long after that next cycle.

 

[dozu888]

US deficit spending is worse for the world than is Euro, Yen, Yuan,Zimbabwe debt.
A bag of sugar, loaf of bread, equity, oil, gold, real estate become more expensive
and the people,will have less.
Other countries/currencies will peg, follow, fold,and experience the same.



Safe haven = USD
All else including Gold = firesale
Back in 2008 crash, safe haven was $ & Yen

Yup, and US debt was and will be a safe haven as well.
Hopefully the fed and the market can get the long rate up north of 4 , 5 or 6%. That and the knowlege, belief that they can and will go back to near zero will feul a monster demand for US gov. assets.
End game is long after that next cycle.[/QUOTE]

the deficit spending is bad.. no doubt.

the blessing has been that the US economic engine has been so robust that it could afford all the waste by the politicians.

hopefully Trump's policies will reverse all that.. the tax cut should increase the tax base. and all the trade renegotiation should also increase the US productivity, hence the tax base.

Also at some point of his admin hopefully he cuts some more wasteful spending.

 

[birgitta_stockholm]

Yup, and US debt was and will be a safe haven as well.
e.

[/QUOTE]

 

[birgitta_stockholm]

36/yr trend for US debt has reversed. Rally coming anytime soon. Then the next leg down begins - that’s when world will demand more yield for the massive risk of mismanagement and out of control printing

Debt will be dumped like there’s no manana

 

[birgitta_stockholm]

Around about that time the USD will have completed its Bullrun that began in 2008.

A new champion will show up then for changing of the guard

Empire change in progress if Ww3 gets averted. If not we start from scratch and discover gravity - again

 

[ironchef]

The end game is simple: the US public debt is/will effectively become the world public debt.

And the rest of the world will buy and own us, just like the Chinese are beginning to do. So, one of these days we will be working for the Russians, Chinese, Europeans and Japanese.

 

[qxr1011]

And the rest of the world will buy and own us

i do not think so

they will own our useless debt obligations...

So, one of these days we will be working for the Russians, Chinese, Europeans and Japanese.

do not think so either

but repercussions on us and the world economy may be substantial

 

[piezoe]

the tax cut should increase the tax base

We have enough experience with supply side economics to permit the CBO to attempt to project what the likely outcome of Trump tax cuts will be on government revenue and deficits. (Of course, since these projections deal with the future, rather than the past where 100% accuracy is achievable, they are subject to substantial error. )

net revenue = revenue - expenditure ; when revenue > expenditures , net revenue is positive and a surplus is produced.

; when revenue < expenditures , net revenue is negative and a deficit is produced.
​

Unfortunately the relationship is complex because revenue = f(expenditure); the form of this function and the values of its parameters are the subject of debate. We can, however, say that it is generally true that when the government increases the amount spent into the economy compared to the amount it withdraws in revenue, savings are increased by the difference, and there is a consequent increase in investment and economic activity. This in turn results in increased tax revenue.

In the case of the initial and substantial Reagan tax cuts, revenues did increase but not nearly so much as spending increased and the net results was ballooning deficits. There have been many economic studies of this experiment in tax rate reduction. Economists have concluded that huge increases in government expenditure, and the consequent recovery from recession -- also helped by tax reductions-- were responsible for the increases in revenue. The government in that instance actually leveraged up well in excess of the private sector's leveraging down during the recession that existed when Reagan took office. After the Reagan cuts and huge increases in spending, the economy nicely recovered. Ballooning deficits soon caused the Congress to take back some of the cuts. The final result by the end of the Reagan era was a dramatic increase in the national debt, and a strong economy. Deficits equal additional private sector savings and huge deficits equal huge additional private sector savings. The distribution of those savings is another matter however.