So, what am I missing ?
- Thread starter alaa_21eg
- Start date
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What you are missing is the size of the trader.
You, me, anyone on ET, can enter/exit an entire position and *rarely* have to worry about bringing down the market with selling pressure, or *creating* a surge in price by trying to buy in.
What you are missing is the size of those who might need a week or two to get out of a position. This is readily discernible in price action, and readily demonstrated in "T/A" tools. The problem is, that by the time you discover such a heavy and trending agenda, it may be dead (or ordered *reversed*) by those who brought it to market.
We are but little speed boats in a world of super-tankers. We are nimble, we are quick, but we do NOT set the agendas, nor do those who work those agendas notice in the least should they run right over us.
You, me, anyone on ET, can enter/exit an entire position and *rarely* have to worry about bringing down the market with selling pressure, or *creating* a surge in price by trying to buy in.
What you are missing is the size of those who might need a week or two to get out of a position. This is readily discernible in price action, and readily demonstrated in "T/A" tools. The problem is, that by the time you discover such a heavy and trending agenda, it may be dead (or ordered *reversed*) by those who brought it to market.
We are but little speed boats in a world of super-tankers. We are nimble, we are quick, but we do NOT set the agendas, nor do those who work those agendas notice in the least should they run right over us.
Market is too changeable for anything to work all the time, it's the trader, which needs to adapt to what ever is being thrown at him and improvise and over come while keeping it simple enough to not just be going around in circles.
Find a setup, which works enough, risks 5pts but generally gets to 5-15pts profit for vague example and just repeat that until you master it or, find something better.
Find a setup, which works enough, risks 5pts but generally gets to 5-15pts profit for vague example and just repeat that until you master it or, find something better.
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Mr Alaa200 ; your English is good; your premise is wrong. TRY 200 months of study, 2 months= almost could call that noise, as far as study. Better to become a long term trader/ investor.
Another reason so few funds beat the S&P 500 %; slippage,commissions, emotions , confused gamblers, exspence ratio...…………………………………………….
You could do like many in media do[don't try this @ home,LOL] they use the DOW+ measure by points.LOL That way if the DOW ever moves 20%; they can scream its worse than 1929, in points LOL. They did that in 2018. I've never seen an ideal trend,[200 years+] but nobody said it would be easy!!
It’s been really obvious (in hindsight) to buy and hold US equities for the past ten years - and yet, a multitude of highly educated “experts” managing (literally) trillions of dollars have not been able to duplicate or exceed these simplistic ‘buy and hold’ returns. In other words, at least half of the professional hedge fund managers out there couldn’t beat out an assembly line worker who invested 10% of his pay every two weeks into his 401K plan over the past ten years. Just buying an index. Hell, the past twenty years for that matter.
If you are analyzing data for ANY purpose it’s historical data - does not matter if you’re a climate scientist, a behavioral scientist, an epidemiologist, or a HF trading system developer.
If you ever find yourself in the enviable position of analyzing future data then you are in a remarkable position.
If you are analyzing data for ANY purpose it’s historical data - does not matter if you’re a climate scientist, a behavioral scientist, an epidemiologist, or a HF trading system developer.
If you ever find yourself in the enviable position of analyzing future data then you are in a remarkable position.
Everything before the current millisecond is “past”.
Maybe there is ”massive competition”, but there are times when the majority of participants are buying and price is trending up. Sometimes majority is selling, and price is trending down. One person can’t create one of these trend waves, but with enough time and effort, you may be able to figure out how to consistently observe and catch good entry points on the various waves.
Beware, it will stop working entirely when there ceases to be a market.
Maybe there is ”massive competition”, but there are times when the majority of participants are buying and price is trending up. Sometimes majority is selling, and price is trending down. One person can’t create one of these trend waves, but with enough time and effort, you may be able to figure out how to consistently observe and catch good entry points on the various waves.
Beware, it will stop working entirely when there ceases to be a market.
'you cannot beat the market you can only join it.'
i have been trading for 30 years and the last 12 years day trading.
day trading as most will tell you is very difficult or close to impossible.
you need to choose the right instrument and i think this is by just plain luck or by trial and error.
there is much talk of an edge but that is only needed if you operate on a gambling mentality.
traders talk of edge because they think the only way of making money is to manage the market.
most markets repeat ....do the same thing over and over again.
i have always known this but it it is only recently that i have discovered it exactly.
you have to discover how the markets move.this takes a lot of effort time and commitment even after starting on the right road.
from day one that is not the road i have taken.....the road i have chosen was difficult and long.
i have tried to understand how the markets move.it has taken me a lifetime to reach the destination.....
can you be committed to the goal and can you stand the heat..........
most just give up for cooler easier pastures.
i have been trading for 30 years and the last 12 years day trading.
day trading as most will tell you is very difficult or close to impossible.
you need to choose the right instrument and i think this is by just plain luck or by trial and error.
there is much talk of an edge but that is only needed if you operate on a gambling mentality.
traders talk of edge because they think the only way of making money is to manage the market.
most markets repeat ....do the same thing over and over again.
i have always known this but it it is only recently that i have discovered it exactly.
you have to discover how the markets move.this takes a lot of effort time and commitment even after starting on the right road.
from day one that is not the road i have taken.....the road i have chosen was difficult and long.
i have tried to understand how the markets move.it has taken me a lifetime to reach the destination.....
can you be committed to the goal and can you stand the heat..........
most just give up for cooler easier pastures.
It sounds more like yer on about existence, not the markets. I hear ya.
strategies, patterns are all things that focus on a limited part of the market and hence cannot give you anything but a limited view.
these will appear at odd times because they are not the market. if they are not the market then how are you going to understand what is going on.
all the books will show you how to manage the what is unknown.
the market they say is uncertain and you have to manage risk.
Risk comes from uncertainty ,uncertainty comes from the lack of understanding.
that is why you can change strategies, you can search for patterns and you still will be lost.
these will appear at odd times because they are not the market. if they are not the market then how are you going to understand what is going on.
all the books will show you how to manage the what is unknown.
the market they say is uncertain and you have to manage risk.
Risk comes from uncertainty ,uncertainty comes from the lack of understanding.
that is why you can change strategies, you can search for patterns and you still will be lost.
or you are in mental institution.
why bother analysing anything.
the market keeps doing the same thing. you do not need to analyse YOU ONLY NEED TO OBSERVE.