So this was like trading in the late 90s?

erick_red · Jan 11, 2018

Although they may be similar in some aspects, it is not the same thing as the .com fever with the bitcoin

murray t turtle · Jan 11, 2018

erick_red said:
Although they may be similar in some aspects, it is not the same thing as the .com fever with the bitcoin

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Exactly bitcoin ;reminds me a lot of Bernie Maddoff, but i'm not mad about it.LOL :caution:

not a prediction, not a stock tip, wisdom is profitable to direct. BAC said the exchanges getting into bitcon could dampen it. IBD ran a Christmas week or early 2018 headline '' judgement week for bit coin''

erick_red · Jan 11, 2018

murray t turtle said:
%%
Exactly bitcoin ;reminds me a lot of Bernie Maddoff, but i'm not mad about it.LOL not a prediction, not a stock tip, wisdom is profitable to direct. BAC said the exchanges getting into bitcon could dampen it. IBD ran a Christmas week or early 2018 headline '' judgement week for bit coin''

Murray, I'm hearing that the bitcoin bubble is going to explode since 2011 its price I think it did not reach $ 200, I do not remember at this time, today despite moving downwards, it's still a good option (particularly I hope that arrive below 13,250); but as I said before, this is not the .com

jeffalvinson · Jan 18, 2018

There is no comparison from this bull market to 1999:
Chart below of the SP500 in 1999 (12 months, weekly candles & 10 & 20 ma), shows it was choppy and gained about 230 points, but only in the last 2 months of 1999. Definitely a daytraders market.

The other chart below shows the last 12 months of SP500 (weekly candles & 10 & 20 ma) which is smooth as silk, with only slight rare consolidation and a 500 point gain (+117% greater than 1999). Definitely a buy and hold market, but difficult if your looking to daytrade pullbacks.

neke · Jan 18, 2018

jeffalvinson said:
There is no comparison from this bull market to 1999:
Chart below of the SP500 in 1999 (12 months, weekly candles & 10 & 20 ma), shows it was choppy and gained about 230 points, but only in the last 2 months of 1999. Definitely a daytraders market.

The other chart below shows the last 12 months of SP500 (weekly candles & 10 & 20 ma) which is smooth as silk, with only slight rare consolidation and a 500 point gain (+117% greater than 1999). Definitely a buy and hold market, but difficult if your looking to daytrade pullbacks.

People weren't trading S&P500 in 1999 (so to speak). It was all about Nasdaq. I believe that index rose 85% that year. The best performing stock in the Nasdaq 100 was Qualcomm (QCOM), with a mouth-watering 2500% return. The best of Nasdaq 100 last year (not sure whether its NVDA or not) does not even come close.

Besides, your comparison should be percentage moves in SPY, not points. SPY was coming from a lower level then.

jeffalvinson · Jan 18, 2018

Ok same routine. Chart below is Nasdaq 1999 (12 months & weekly candles & 10 & 20 ma).
400 pt gain from Jan to mid-Oct, then in the last 2.5 months 1,450 pts gain, total 1,850 pts.
10 bounces off the weekly 20 ma.

Next Chart below last 12 months of Nasdaq, weekly candles & 10 & 20 ma.
It is a smoother chart with only 1 support bounce off the weekly 20ma versus 10 bounces off 20ma support in 1999. Gains are more linear across the 12 months, "But surprising both charts of the Nasdaq separated by 18 years produced approximately the same 1,850 pt gain."
"Neke, you are correct sir!"

rvince99 · Jan 18, 2018

As for the mindset, this is much like the 90s, everyone trying to cal the top, and not just amateurs.

As for the strength and drivers behind this market, this is stronger than anything ever seen. We are in uncharted territory in that sense.

jeffalvinson · Jan 18, 2018

rvince99 said:
As for the mindset, this is much like the 90s, everyone trying to cal the top, and not just amateurs.

As for the strength and drivers behind this market, this is stronger than anything ever seen. We are in uncharted territory in that sense.

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I totally agree with every word you just said!
I believe in this unprecedented market, looking for a top with charts is useless.
The only thing that will bring an end to this Bull Market is if the Fed Reserve brings the overnight lending rate back to the 4% to 5% range. That has ended every Bull Market in the last several decades.