So this was like trading in the late 90s?

Cswim63 said:
I've been looking for years now for the typical signs of irrational behavior. Maybe because the investing is mostly done by proxy, it's harder for the public to get too excited. They will get their 401k and mutual fund statements for last year soon. Then we'll see. Also, pros have encouraged herd like behavior, saying that people should be invested in stocks vs bonds according to their age, stocks being "risky". Some famous investor/trader once said that the market doesn't care how old you are. So mostly the "pros" are risk averse, perhaps rightly so most of the time. I'm not turning bearish until I see pictures of bulls on the cover of magazines at the checkout counter.
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Lowry Research has some very good papers on tops and bottoms. You can D/L some white papers at the link below.

PS Tops are much harder to spot than bottoms.

https://www.lowryresearch.com/Research/WhitePapers
 
rvince99 said:
Man's progress is ever-upwards, in fit and spits, furts and spurts.
At least it's been that way since the watering hole scene in Kubrick's 2001.
Equity prices reflect this.

Humanity itself is a bubble.

Bear markets are buying opportunities.
Never go short. If for no other reason, the long side is bounded at zero.
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From that chart, seems the 20th/21st century is a massive bubble.
Took 100 years at a time to go up 10-fold between 1500 and 1900. Since then, it has been nearly 200-times in 100 years. Any reason for this?
 
neke said:
From that chart, seems the 20th/21st century is a massive bubble.
Took 100 years at a time to go up 10-fold between 1500 and 1900. Since then, it has been nearly 200-times in 100 years. Any reason for this?
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Deflationary versus inflationary money.
 
neke said:
From that chart, seems the 20th/21st century is a massive bubble.
Took 100 years at a time to go up 10-fold between 1500 and 1900. Since then, it has been nearly 200-times in 100 years. Any reason for this?
More...
I'll take a stab at it. The industrial revolution, causing a massive rise in productivity, followed by the invention of the computer, now the hand held computer, causing another large rise in productivity. The period of the 70s, sort of in between both, was a period of stagnation overall.
 
Cswim63 said:
I'll take a stab at it. The industrial revolution, causing a massive rise in productivity, followed by the invention of the computer, now the hand held computer, causing another large rise in productivity. The period of the 70s, sort of in between both, was a period of stagnation overall.
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actually current time characterized by lower productivity and many attribute it to handheld computers
 
Cswim63 said:
I'll take a stab at it. The industrial revolution, causing a massive rise in productivity, followed by the invention of the computer, now the hand held computer, causing another large rise in productivity. The period of the 70s, sort of in between both, was a period of stagnation overall.
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There's also the matter of companies being valued according to earnings rather than dividends, which gave rise to earnings multiples and price-to-earnings ratios. In the late 90s, many companies were valued according to projected earnings and earnings multiples and attracted tons of money even though they had no earnings at all.

Then of course there's inflation and the effect that has on unadjusted prices. I'm sure an inflation-adjusted market price can be found somewhere on line.
 
You can do it in reverse, and it's a little bit easier to see. Go back to 1975, before personal computers, fax machines, modern diesel engines, and all the other stuff that's been invented since partly because of those things, and tell me how much the average company is worth. Now do it in 1920, before autos became adopted. Now do it in 1870, before electric motors, lightbulbs and telephones. How much was your average company worth then? Oh, that's right, they didn't exist.
 
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