So - the answer to "Will Putin Invade Ukraine"

terr said:
He just formally recognized the sovereignty of Donbass/Luhansk. Obviously the next step is those two new "sovereign countries" inviting Russian troops in for security, and Russia obliging. If Ukraine in any way tries to prevent that, that's "Ukrainian aggression" and will be cause for "counterattack" by Russian military.

Donbass and Luhansk are not a huge percentage of total Ukraine and Ukraine did not have control of them for a long time already anyway. There will be enormous pressure from "the West" for Ukraine to just sit and take it and, frankly, that seems like the best strategy for Ukraine no matter how humiliating it is.

The question is, will Ukrainian "aggression" be manufactured by Russia to create a pretext for "counterattack". And, of course, I suspect that if the whole thing is limited to Donbass/Luhansk, Biden et al will not do anything except lament the situation. No sanctions.
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I shorted ES just before market halted thinking, "Eh, it's only 5 hours, what could happen." Putin signed and market opened up about 25 points down. Thankfully I was on the right side of history. Wouldn't of been a huge ordeal if I'd been on the other side, but I'd have been upset at a loss outside of my own trading.
 
SunTrader said:
14 years wowza sooooo long ago.

We've only been dropping for a month or so now, remember something called bull market loooongest in history. IOW not many down years in ummm recent years, let alone down from day one of any one particular year.

Tuff crowd.
:)
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It was the last major market tumble except the pandemic...nice find.
Overnight said:
I didn't realize that the great recession was recent memory. I guess recent memory also applies to the great depression, too.

So basically, yes, it has always happened, in the entire history of the stock market.
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:confused:
 
S2007S said:
Again markets hate uncertainty and that's all we have now between Russia and Ukraine and interest rates.

Uncertainty every which way we look.

Again everything can be simplified.

First the fed doesn't have to wait until March to raise rates..just raise them 50 basis points and let's move on. Secondly everything about this Russia Ukraine situation is nothing but talk ... ...I believe all this talk would have become action by now.
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If they impose sanctions that will most certainly cause Putin to retaliate by raising global energy prices which will certainly increase inflation woes in America. I think things could get pretty ugly, but that's just my opinion.
 
terr said:
This is an actual quote. This is NOT made up.

Reporter: Will sanctions deter Putin?

Kamala Harris: Within the context then of the fact that that window is still opening, although, open, although it is absolutely narrowing, but within the context of a diplomatic path still being open.
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Good God, smh. She must be getting her talking points from Biden.
 
Bugsy said:
If they impose sanctions that will most certainly cause Putin to retaliate by raising global energy prices which will certainly increase inflation woes in America. I think things could get pretty ugly, but that's just my opinion.
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We are at the point of energy and oil prices inflicting economic woes. Teetering on 100 and there after will cause goods and services to continue to rise all while the consumer feels the pinch. Talk of 120 130 even 150 oil is now being played as a possibility. 150 oil and watch for a long recession. But I believe a recession would keep oil prices under pressure as now the fed is done or hopefully done with their lame garbage pathetic trillion dollar handouts. The economy is hopeless without the fed and it will be proven soon.
 
S2007S said:
Yes they have been down 500 for a few hours now on the same news as everyone already knew. Russia and Ukraine tensions. Nothing new.
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If it was the same news everyone knew, why is it down 500 points? Wouldn't it be flat? And why tomorrow will it be down 500 points, since all the bad news is "priced in"?
 
Bugsy said:
If they impose sanctions that will most certainly cause Putin to retaliate by raising global energy prices which will certainly increase inflation woes in America. I think things could get pretty ugly, but that's just my opinion.
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No way Putin tolerates sanctions when he has his own array of economic weapons to use very effectively, against the US and Europe, starting with higher oil and natural gas prices. That alone will spike inflation, hurting the economies of the US and Europe. In addition, I see Russia moving closer to Iran, North Korea and encouraging them to develop their missile capabilities and maybe, even assisting them. China could very well invade Taiwan now, seeing how inept Biden and NATO are.
 
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