So, no double top means buy the dip... right?

[Pekelo]

Reading 80 dead so far, the Chinese confirming they can't find a source from which it mutated from & spreads asymptomatically. Problem is, the Chinese tend to hide information.

If I were a cynic I would say, it can be used as population control for the Chinese. But let's just mention here too, annually 50+K people die in the USA due to the normal flu season. Every year.

Since China is 3 times bigger, a 150K death tool could be looked at as average...

 

[Cuddles]

If I were a cynic I would say, it can be used as population control for the Chinese. But let's just mention here too, annually 50+K people die in the USA due to the normal flu season. Every year.

yeah, am waiting on the "kill ratio" numbers myself to start to panic.

 

[MKTrader]

Stocks appear set to open waaaay down again. I've heard you guys mention double tops before. Since there has not been one, is the smart money buying this dip? I hope lol.

Thanks!

If trading were that simple, we'd all be millionaires. I suggest you quantitatively define "double top" and "buying a dip" then test your theory. If you can do this (which won't be easy and will be time-consuming), I'm pretty sure you'll find little to no statistical significance for your idea.

For the record, it may very well be a "buy the dip" (or "hold your stocks") opportunity. I'm not arguing against that. I'm just saying a double top has nothing to do with it...and the "smart money" couldn't care less about a subjective chart pattern.

 

[tommcginnis]

Well, it could be this or it could be that -- unless, y'know, the market does what it *always* does and confirms the prior move in such a plain and obvious way. And when it does this -- Well! -- "Katy bar the door!" and all hell will break loose. But that's just when the Big Boys will come in, and -- in a robust display of technical know-how -- and show who's wearing a bathing suit and who's just there to splash around til the rising tide lifts those boats without holes.

And when *that* happens, well -- aren't we all back to fundamentals anyway? Oh, and don't Fight The Fed. And something else.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

If trading were that simple, we'd all be millionaires. I suggest you quantitatively define "double top" and "buying a dip" then test your theory. If you can do this (which won't be easy and will be time-consuming), I'm pretty sure you'll find little to no statistical significance for your idea.

For the record, it may very well be a "buy the dip" (or "hold your stocks") opportunity. I'm not arguing against that. I'm just saying a double top has nothing to do with it...and the "smart money" couldn't care less about a subjective chart pattern.

Very little wiggle room in your statements and that's fine. But... I like double tops because they say something about what has been going on. Do you go short on a double top always? No, but a double top isn't obvious until hindsight anyway in which case you couldn't make any sort of trade.

 

[gaussian]

And when *that* happens, well -- aren't we all back to fundamentals anyway? Oh, and don't Fight The Fed. And something else.

If there is no fundamental reason for a movement there's really no point in panicking. Of all the money I lost, this would attribute to most of it. Traders make stupid moves all the time. They are the most bipolar people on the planet. First, irrational exuberance, next stark depression. I've learned through the past recession and through the big drop in 2018 to just sit on my hands until the the fundamentals change.

 

[MKTrader]

Very little wiggle room in your statements and that's fine. But... I like double tops because they say something about what has been going on. Do you go short on a double top always? No, but a double top isn't obvious until hindsight anyway in which case you couldn't make any sort of trade.

I agree, at least anecdotally, that prices seem to gravitate to certain levels like previous highs/lows, round numbers (S&P 500 at 3000), etc. However, I've never found these levels to be predictive or found a systematically profitable way to trade around them. If anything, the "smart money" wants retail traders to trade emotionally and put their faith in chart patterns, indicators, etc. Back when floor traders (not algos) ruled the day, I heard that some of them faded popular indicators like the MACD when they gave new buy/sell signals on daily charts at allegedly "important" times. Remember, their job is to fleece the public.

 

[tommcginnis]

Well, it could be this or it could be that -- unless, y'know, the market does what it *always* does and confirms the prior move in such a plain and obvious way. And when it does this -- Well! -- "Katy bar the door!" and all hell will break loose. But that's just when the Big Boys will come in, and -- in a robust display of technical know-how -- and show who's wearing a bathing suit and who's just there to splash around til the rising tide lifts those boats without holes.

And when *that* happens, well -- aren't we all back to fundamentals anyway? Oh, and don't Fight The Fed. And something else.

100% snark, BTW. Filled with about as many weasel statements as I could muster without actually working at it.

 

[murray t turtle]

If trading were that simple, we'd all be millionaires. I suggest you quantitatively define "double top" and then test your theory.
For the record, it may very well be a "buy the dip" (or "hold your stocks") opportunity. I'm not arguing against that. I'm just saying a double top has nothing to do with it...and the "smart money" couldn't care less about a subjective chart pattern.

If trading were that simple, we'd all be millionaires. I suggest you quantitatively define "double top". I'm pretty sure you'll find little to no statistical significance for your idea.

For the record, it may very well be a "buy the dip" (or "hold your stocks") opportunity. I'm not arguing against that. I'm just saying a double top has nothing to do with it...and the "smart money" couldn't care less about a subjective chart pattern.

%%
A double top happened on 5 hour charts+ DOW/DIA looks like its going down again. But @ end of day SPY, QQQ still trending strong + long. Double tops happen every day in an uptrending bull market; but if IWM + DIA double tops below 50 day ma, +they may, look out below for IWM + DIA/DOW LOL-LOL...................................................................................

 

[maximumpossiblesuffering]

“I don’t know want’s going to happen” are probably the best 7 words for more aggressive longer term traders to live by right now. It seems clear to me that risk right now is particularly hard to quantify. Therefore, it seems reducing long exposure or hedging seems in order. Even without adverse events, the market could be subject to a 5% to 10% correction at any time without seriously affecting long term trends. The seriousness of the current Corona virus outbreak is undefined right now.