Thanks for your kind words. I think you are a stellar poster here and no matter how much we disagree on some topics, I have always found you to be honest and genuine.
Its a very small amount, so doesn't matter what happens. The boat to make 100x has clearly sailed, and going forward its just a matter of it BTC proves to be a store of value or not. I'm happy to say my silver is finally doing much better.
The interesting thing is that BTC hasn't crashed. Sure, down 50% is huge, and people who are out millions of dollars because of this must really be feeling the pain, but you would think that if the fundamental flaws in BTC were exposed, it should be down much more.
I will tell you what I worry about though. People always say USD has intrinsic value because it is backed by the military, which I think makes sense. USD might lose value, but its hard to say it will collapse. Likewise, I do agree that BTC is backed by the over 10,000 nodes or whatever it was. As long as you have so much money coming in to support the network, then its all good. But what happens if China really does crack down. Since 65% of the coins seem to be mined in China, using dirty coal, if all of a sudden half of the mining rigs go offline, we now have half the network. And what happens if there is a competing coin that now looks more attractive for the miners to get behind.
I guess what I'm saying is that what is more likely, the US military gets downgraded and the dollar cannot be protected, or some crypto backed up by miners diminishes in relevance? Its like asking how much faith I have in Facebook being around in 10 years. Its a dominant force now but can easily be unthroned. All you really need is more adoption for something else and that thing which had a 90% market share can one day be a 50/50 proposition, and then if it slips further, its all downhill rather quickly.
This of course won't happen overnight, but BTC is really only as strong as the network. And if that network loses momentum, then that is a very real problem. When some of the miners went offline for a day, we saw a huge drop. So if some get permanently shut down over dirty coal, it gets easier and easier to make some other coin a more dominant force. This in my opinion can easily happen within the space of one year. It literally won't take much for the tide to change to some other coin. So sure, we can watch the flow of coins from wallets to exchanges, but watching the network is just as, if not more important.