So... is this rally legit... or a bull trap?

[murray t turtle]

Well I exited my puts at the last minute.

Felt like the FED was giving me the middle finger treatment.

%%
Good\
they decay\ melt so much.....................................................Some inverse EWTFs almost as bad

 

[smallfil]

Soy....Stick to guessing market direction. The stockmarket does not care one bit. It goes where majority of market participants push it to. At some point, it will either reverse and go lower or continue higher. Only 2 possibilities. I do not care as I only follow the trends and there is money to be made either way.

 

[KCalhoun]

Prolly a dcb, I say that bc s&p stalled by noon and stopped going up. Meaning bulls not strong all day or into the close.

3day rule, unless tomorrow end day strong/up, may get selling thur fri.... regardless I'm holding inverses not directional into this fakeout ounce

 

[MKTrader]

The fact is that every rally so far this year have been sold. Eventually, one gets legs.

People were really bullish on the 12th of September as well.

In other words, shorting rallies is like buying dips--it works until it doesn't. And no one has the magic secret de-coder ring to know when a long-term bottom is reached. The main difference between shorting rallies and buying dips is that bear markets are much shorter than bull markets. They can last up to 2 or 3 years (or longer if we have another Great Depression scenario), but often they're over in 6-12 months. The COVID crash and recovery was the fastest I've seen. All-time high, 30%+ crash, then back to new highs in like 4 or 5 months. Unfortunately, that led some newbies (including young option selling "experts" on Youtube) to believe that all bear markets end in a few months.

 

[KCalhoun]

I'm fading it, bot uvxy sqqq after-hours, uvxy up a bit

 

[nitrene]

A rally based on the reversal of the Pound and front running the Fed rate decision feels like another bear rally. Powell seems like he is done bowing to the pumpers on Wall Street and wants to crush inflation whatever it takes.

 

[Overnight]

A rally based on the reversal of the Pound and front running the Fed rate decision feels like another bear rally. Powell seems like he is done bowing to the pumpers on Wall Street and wants to crush inflation whatever it takes.

The rally is BS. We need solid evidence of deflation, not this JOLTS crap. NFP friday is gonna' have a big impact.

 

[Wide Tailz]

Trend still down on the weekly and in a good spot to get short, contingent on "price action"

 

[comagnum]

Classic start of Oct, this is typically when the big players buy beaten up stocks. The Russell 2000 is leading the charge, it did not break the June lows. Is it the ultimate bottom?- could care less since I am a trader, not an investor.

 

[KCalhoun]

I'm fading it, bot uvxy sqqq after-hours, uvxy up a bit

I was Right . Glad I bought uvxy sqqq, will sell premkt if gaps drop