Lets use the 50 MA which quite a few people do.
On the S&P, we had a few weeks of trading above the weekly 50 MA. We are on the verge again to go beyond that MA again. The MA was sloping down, but now it is flattening out.
On the daily charts, using the same 50MA, we have been bullish since end of March.
In the last two months, I was trying to catch swings on shorts, and we have been honestly quite bullish. Moreover, I notice that we have big ranges (1320-1360,1370-1410, 1410-1425) that we brush and scrub many times before we move to the next range. After many weeks of trying to catch trend (for example, short below MA or short below MA cross) using the daily charts, I notice counter trend at the edge of those ranges have worked better than trying to catch the trend. That counter trend being better for swings is an observation for the last two months and and it may change very soon. Also, going to a lower time frame like 15 or 30 minutes, will get us quite a few points also given the volatility.
If we look back at 2001 bear market, we really didn't have much weekly bars above the 50MA, but we have many this time around. So, my reaction is "Who the hell is still buying". With that, you should know which side I am on
)
However, I remind myself of these two lines every so often :
- Bulls win in bull markets. Bulls and bears lose in bear market.
- âThe market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.â -- John Maynard Keynes
Cheers,
Nimble
On the S&P, we had a few weeks of trading above the weekly 50 MA. We are on the verge again to go beyond that MA again. The MA was sloping down, but now it is flattening out.
On the daily charts, using the same 50MA, we have been bullish since end of March.
In the last two months, I was trying to catch swings on shorts, and we have been honestly quite bullish. Moreover, I notice that we have big ranges (1320-1360,1370-1410, 1410-1425) that we brush and scrub many times before we move to the next range. After many weeks of trying to catch trend (for example, short below MA or short below MA cross) using the daily charts, I notice counter trend at the edge of those ranges have worked better than trying to catch the trend. That counter trend being better for swings is an observation for the last two months and and it may change very soon. Also, going to a lower time frame like 15 or 30 minutes, will get us quite a few points also given the volatility.
If we look back at 2001 bear market, we really didn't have much weekly bars above the 50MA, but we have many this time around. So, my reaction is "Who the hell is still buying". With that, you should know which side I am on
)However, I remind myself of these two lines every so often :
- Bulls win in bull markets. Bulls and bears lose in bear market.
- âThe market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.â -- John Maynard Keynes
Cheers,
Nimble
