So inflation-adjusted the S&P 500 did not reach 1929 levels until after 50 years?

Even more recently between 1996 and 2013 the S&P was range bound, trading between 680 and 1560. Took 13 years to really breakout above the 2000 high.

I would guess buy and hold returns from the US stock market from start of 2022 to the end of this decade are not going to be great. Probably going to be good for trading but not good for buy and hold.
 
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It is even worse than that. These indexes keep changing their components, throwing out under performing companies and replacing them with new high flyers. Because of this FACT, you can not make a valid comparison between the Dow in 1930 and 1990.
 
it means the way those numbers were derived was defective/wrong.

Don't trust those numbers / reports / writers / analysts.
There is too much garbage out there.

Always do your own analysis.
And make your own judgment and decision.
 
Pekelo said:
It is even worse than that. These indexes keep changing their components, throwing out under performing companies and replacing them with new high flyers. Because of this FACT, you can not make a valid comparison between the Dow in 1930 and 1990.
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I disagree.
 
Maverick2608 said:
I disagree.
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Good for you. Except you forgot to give a logical or factual reason for doing so.

It is like comparing 2 movies (the original and the remake). Can you compare them? Sure. Is that a valid comparison? No.

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average, an American stock index composed of 30 large companies, has changed its components 57 times since its inception, on May 26, 1896."

Not a few companies, but twice turn over in 125 years. But wait:

"As of Oct 2019, since 1967, there have been a total of almost 1800 securities that have been in the S&P 500 index/currently in the index at some point, representing an average turnover of about 25 stocks per year, but has been as high as 60."

3.5 times turn over in 65 years! 5% change per year on average.
 
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Pekelo said:
Good for you. Except you forgot to give a logical or factual reason for doing so.

It is like comparing 2 movies (the original and the remake). Can you compare them? Sure. Is that a valid comparison? No.

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average, an American stock index composed of 30 large companies, has changed its components 57 times since its inception, on May 26, 1896."

Not a few companies, but twice over in 125 years. But wait:

"As of Oct 2019, since 1967, there have been a total of almost 1800 securities that have been in the S&P 500 index/currently in the index at some point, representing an average turnover of about 25 stocks per year, but has been as high as 60."

3.5 times over in 65 years! 5% change per year on average.
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And? There is no look ahead bias. Yes there are transaction costs.
 
Agree, not sure why the other user speaks of transactions. Also the issue of 'look ahead bias' is not relevant. What matters is that the same index over time changes so significantly that they can hardly be called one and the same and they are hardly comparable with each other over multiple decades.

Having said that, I am actually curious how the index with components and weights locked in from 30 years ago would actually perform today. Should he quite easy to do but I am not in front of my machine right now...

Pekelo said:
I was talking about comparisons, not transactions. I repeat, you can not compare the same index 3-6 decades apart when 2/3rd of the components has changed. End of story, you disagree or not.
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