This is like having a speaker in the room without any audience. Only way your edge will work is when others follow it (or possibly precede it) to allow the edge to pan out.
no.. we are talking about different things here..
what I am talking about is a trader taking advantage of the money flow from main street... imagine if you are the 1 and only trader (short term speculator) and you find this pattern by the mom and pop say there are 200 of them out there, and you can buy at $1.01 and sell at $1.99, with a stop at $0.75.... sometime it works, some time not, but over all you make money.
now imagine there are 100 traders doing the same thing, not only you are competing for that $1.01 and $1.99 price, which means many of the traders will get worse fills, but also that $0.75 stop becomes questionable as so many people want to exit there you get also worse fill.... there is only so much profit from the 200 mom/pops, now that competition is fierce your chance of success is reduced.
not only that, now that there are 100 people doing this, they are now as dumb as the 200 mom/pops and there can come another group of traders who figure out if they can poke the price below $0.75 a bunch of these 100 people will exit in panic... now THIS become a new edge...
this is basically what's going on in the retail trading world... so many people think they can just get a computer and program something and make money... the reality is they swing constantly from 1 pattern to another, only to see all these patterns self defeat, so in the long run they are basically break-even traders at best.
I understand your argument... sure this 100 traders going on the same pattern can produce a self-fulfilling effect, but there is no benefit for you, because you are not guaranteed to be the first in line to get the $1.01 and $1.99 and the $0.75 stop, therefore a self-fulfilling sequence is NOT an edge.... it can only be if you can guarantee to be the fastest to the punch, hence in the HFT world there is all this hardware war.