So how did last year's analyst forecasts succeed?

[Pekelo]

After reading the forecasts of 16 analysts for 2012 (all but one bullish from breakeven to 1500 S&P), I got curious, just how well they did a year earlier? As you probably guessed it right, not very well, although their average prediction was almost reached by May...

http://online.barrons.com/article/S...576019660899709744.html#articleTabs_article=1

" the 10 strategists and investment managers surveyed by Barron's see the S&P 500 finishing next year near 1373,.....
....nine of the 10 strategists we polled are penciling in stock-market gains ranging from 7% to 17% for next year."

Summary:

Brian Belski - Oppenheimer Asset Management
2011 S&P 500 Target 1,325, SPX EPS 88.5, 15x, GDP 3%, 10y yield 3.75%

David Bianco - B of A Merrill Lynch
2011 S&P 500 Target 1,400, SPX EPS 93, 15x, GDP 2.8%, 10y yield 4%

*Douglas Cliggot - Credit Suisse
2011 S&P 500 Target 1,250, SPX EPS 91 (2012 91), 13.7x, GDP 2.8%, 10y yield 3.5%

Barry Knapp - Barclays Capital
2011 S&P 500 Target 1,420, SPX EPS 91, 15.6x, GDP 3.1%, 10y yield 3.5%

David Kostin - Goldman Sachs
2011 S&P 500 Target 1,450, SPX EPS 94 (2012 104), 15.4x, GDP 2.7%, 10y yield 3.25%

Michael Ryan - UBS Wealth Management
2011 S&P 500 Target 1,350, SPX EPS 90, 15x, GDP 2.7%, 10y yield 3.25%

James Paulsen - Wells Capital Management
2011 S&P 500 Target 1,425, SPX EPS 95 (2012 103), 15x, GDP 4%, 10y yield 4%

Henry Mcvey - Morgan Stanley Investment Management
2011 S&P 500 Target 1,362.5, SPX EPS 93.5, 14.57x, GDP 4%, 10y yield 4%

Jeff Knight - Putnam
2011 S&P 500 Target 1,350, SPX EPS: 95 (2012 105), 14.21x, GDP 3.5%, 10y yield 4.25%

David Kelly - JPMorgan Funds
2011 S&P 500 Target 1,400, SPX EPS: 98 (2012 103), 14.28x, GDP 3.7%, 10y yield 4.25%



Congrats to Douglas Cliggot - Credit Suisse, who got it right with his breakeven prediction...


Some others:

http://www.distressedvolatility.com/2010/12/2011-s-forecasts-1250-to-1450-10y-yield.html

 

[S2007S]

I always find these predictions hilarious, reason being is because every year they ask these analysts for their prediction about 90% of them say the market will close higher on the year, you will never ever see 90% of the analysts say the market will have a down year.

These analysts who get paid 6+ figures have no clue what to predict, its all a guessing game as most get it wrong, anyone can play the game they play.

 

[GTS]

10 year yield predictions were way off

 

[TheGoonior]

I'd say analyst forecasts are an awesome example of "survivor-ship bias"

 

[HeSaidSheSaid]

it seems 3rd year of bull market. SPX doesn't move much.

 

[HeSaidSheSaid]

2009-2011