So Cal Prop Trader

Thoughts for Week of 4/11/11

1. I want to trade less. Even though I feel I do have a talent for grinding, I want to just get as big as possible on quality setups. I'm going to try really hard to be patient and wait for them.

**You can expect either big up days, OR big down days this week**


2. I want to stick to stocks that have a psychology I'm aware of woven into them. I won't ignore some badass looking callout, though I really want to stick to stocks that have movement I entirely understand.

3. End goal. It is good to have an end goal. Why are you trading? The WHY is supposed to make you ask yourself, "Is this action worthy of risking my route to my end goal?" For a long time my end goal has been your typical, "Make money, get independence, get weekends off, etc." Clearly, none of that has seeped in enough to make me trade how I know I SHOULD be trading. I'll just go ahead and say it, I've really begun to fall for this chick even though she has a BF and I think I'm slowly sinking into the friend zone. This brings fresh emotion and desire into my end goal. It will be interesting to see how this effects my trading.

4. The Los Angeles Lakers. Even your back to back NBA champions lose once in a while. The best in the world crumble. Maybe they get legitimately beaten, or maybe they slack off, forget about their drive. Just like sports, trading is competitive and not perfectly repetitious. Every trading day or basketball game is different. Main point here, even the NBA champions can lose to crappy teams. Winning doesn't come without losing. Have faith in your abilities, and through time, your talent will shine.

5. Market has been snagged below highs. Perhaps its consolidation, or the beginning of a pullback before we make new highs, or perhaps we get a double top / lower high. The market was oversold when we bounced off lows. There will come a point where we are overbought relative to the economy's actual condition. Question is, why should the market trade higher than our last high? Oil prices going up. Commodities going up. Dollar down. QE3 is out of the question IMO. I think the upcoming earnings season is going to be great for trading. I think we hear interesting comments about guidance. I am not nearly as bullish as I once was. I think things have changed, and people expecting a clean bull higher are wrong. Maybe we make new highs, but it will be due to different reasons than before. Such reasons imo are mid-long term questionable. The market has new conditions. Be careful out there.
 
Quote from ksmetana:

Thoughts for Week of 4/11/11

1. I want to trade less. Even though I feel I do have a talent for grinding, I want to just get as big as possible on quality setups. I'm going to try really hard to be patient and wait for them.

**You can expect either big up days, OR big down days this week**


2. I want to stick to stocks that have a psychology I'm aware of woven into them. I won't ignore some badass looking callout, though I really want to stick to stocks that have movement I entirely understand.

3. End goal. It is good to have an end goal. Why are you trading? The WHY is supposed to make you ask yourself, "Is this action worthy of risking my route to my end goal?" For a long time my end goal has been your typical, "Make money, get independence, get weekends off, etc." Clearly, none of that has seeped in enough to make me trade how I know I SHOULD be trading. I'll just go ahead and say it, I've really begun to fall for this chick even though she has a BF and I think I'm slowly sinking into the friend zone. This brings fresh emotion and desire into my end goal. It will be interesting to see how this effects my trading.

4. The Los Angeles Lakers. Even your back to back NBA champions lose once in a while. The best in the world crumble. Maybe they get legitimately beaten, or maybe they slack off, forget about their drive. Just like sports, trading is competitive and not perfectly repetitious. Every trading day or basketball game is different. Main point here, even the NBA champions can lose to crappy teams. Winning doesn't come without losing. Have faith in your abilities, and through time, your talent will shine.

5. Market has been snagged below highs. Perhaps its consolidation, or the beginning of a pullback before we make new highs, or perhaps we get a double top / lower high. The market was oversold when we bounced off lows. There will come a point where we are overbought relative to the economy's actual condition. Question is, why should the market trade higher than our last high? Oil prices going up. Commodities going up. Dollar down. QE3 is out of the question IMO. I think the upcoming earnings season is going to be great for trading. I think we hear interesting comments about guidance. I am not nearly as bullish as I once was. I think things have changed, and people expecting a clean bull higher are wrong. Maybe we make new highs, but it will be due to different reasons than before. Such reasons imo are mid-long term questionable. The market has new conditions. Be careful out there.
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You have some good insight.
But need to not let this girl affect trading. period.
Need to realize this girl is off limits until she drops loser-bf.
Be amazing and they will come. take that how you will.
how does macro stuff you're talkin about play into your day trades? it prob shouldnt.
trading less is a good goal.
nice job friday.
 
4/11/11
Gross: -70
Shares: 4000
Net: ~ -96

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Fantastic god damn beginning to a week I had high prospects for.

Notable Trades:

1. MON - MON has had a series of down days. Expected a bounce soon. Bought through 67.50. Didn't love the setup though I knew it had potential, hence I only got 200 shares. Blew it on the sell side. Sold half at 73, and the other half in the low 50s as it retraced. Absolutely pathetic of me. It held 50 cents lol.

2. TPX - sigh. I caught this about 15 cents after it broke 57 this morning. I had a chance to enter as it pulled into the low 90s. Opted out. Made a point move from there. It held 56.50 as it trended down. I still did not enter. Finally, I entered as some decent offers came in in the low 20s / high teens. I had 200 shares. I added 100 as it broke 56. TPX made it to 70 cents. My target was 50 cents. Didn't take any outs. Lowered my stop above the 5 min 10 period. Green volume bars came in @ the 70s. Decided to leave it alone. I was stopped out. Average price was 56.09.
Flipped after it broke the MAs and held the 90s. Expected a bounce. Didn't get one, stopped out on my 100 share flip.
Kept watching it. Finally it got a push above 56. I irrationally ended up with 500 shares at the average price of 56.10. It was just a trap. Stopped out below the whole. I say irrational because that was simply too much size relative to my previous sizing.

Once I was initially stopped out, I was wondering if I should have just kept my initial stop at 14 cents. That was triggered on the flutter up that I bought. I bought my previous stop basically.

TPX.... A trade where I was up over $120, ended up screwing my day.

3. Bought some stupid news flutter in CCJ.

4. NVLS. Shorted this near the open. Was not as weak as I expected. I had 200 shares. The charts were ugly, I liked it. Sold half at 88 and the rest at my entry (95 cents). Yeah....


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Traded less today, just got screwed in TPX. I had a great trade in TPX and I blew it. Then I got trapped on the bounce. Now I'm off to job #2 to think about it all day.

From now on, if conditions change, I'm taking some off. No reason to miss outs like that. I went against my instincts and just held.

This could have all been avoided if I took the trade up near 57.

Just absolutely shitty trading today. I deserve my losses.

While I was typing this, I missed my LTD short off the 38 level.

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Tomorrow is another day, I get to trade the entire day.
I was able to restrict myself today, however my in-trade decisions were off. Tomorrow I will continue to look to get big, remain selective, and I will NOT ignore signs of change in the trade. The trade TELLS you when to take some off.

Avoid hesitation. TPX held that 57 whole, absorb the risk. It gave you a chance to add down at 50 cents.
 

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So my manager at job #2 has suddenly gone on "unexpected sick leave," for 3 months. They want me to work more in the coming weeks. It LOOKS like I will have much less trading time ahead of me this month. It is also possible they give me the promotion entirely, which would basically temporarily end my DAY trading career, as I would start at 8:30 a.m. PST instead of 10:45 a.m. PST. I could still trade the open remotely of course.

Normally they would just bring an experienced person of a similar position over to cover temporarily. However, they already short personnel of that position type in the region. Hence, there is a real possibility they might offer me the job.

If they offer me the job I have quite the decision to make...

More money = more trading capital = better trading

It is a shame this is coming 6 months into my trading career. I've already worked here over 2+ years. Decisions decisions. I suppose my upcoming week or two of trading will make the decision for me. BUT, first I need to get offered the job, so I shouldn't get ahead of myself.

I already know everyone's recommendation here would be to take the job. I COULD trade off the open still remotely. Trading off the open would make me hone in on only "off the open" strategies, if I were to continue day trading. That, combined with the increased pay check, could be quite beneficial.

I'm torn.

But anyway, they have me working some 8:30 a.m. shifts next week, so I will have less entries here for a while.

Any comments about this are welcome. Trading is my dream career...
 
congrats if you get it. steady money is great. i couldnt have afforded the time/$ it took to learn the markets without it personally. plus, good to build up a "grub stake" and continue to watch the markets and how they act. the market isnt going anywhere. there will always be opportunities. 1 month,1 year, 5 years from now, etc.

could try learning to swing small account in the mean time?
 
4/12/11

Gross: +191
Shares: 5600
Net: ~ +155

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Sorry I'm in a rush, can't talk much today. Basically had a decent morning, a rough midday, and that news in TYC made my day.

Not proud of today's trading, got bailed out.

I won't be able to trade Wed, Thurs, or Fri this week so I'll see you all next week.

Trade file attached.
 

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4/19/11
Gross: +51
Shares: 7600
Net: +2

First day of trading since the 12th. Decided to take it easy as I am a bit disconnected from the market. My other job has taken control of my running memory, etc.

Anyway, I started the morning off well, with a line of winning trades. Up $102 gross by 10:50 eastern. Made money in AL (the IPO), RBN, OCZ, and WDC.

Lost a bit in PAAS. Silver was making a move, and PAAS was being an absolute pain. The miner / metal trade was not there today.

Made money back in a DNDN bounce play and got a little revenge in PAAS once silver kept going. Gross highs for the day was $132.

I lost all my winnings due to the same stupid trade, that I repeated twice.

BBBB had news in it. Thin stock, went for the 50 break earlier in the day. Lost like 60 cents. Tried it again later in the day, lost another 60 cents. Later I bought a dip and made like 20 cents back.

P&L low for the day was -$25.

I shorted 500 NTRS at 49.55, looking for a 50 break and a push to 49. The trade broke 50 and made it to the low 30s. I didn't take any outs. I let it pull in, and unfortunately, it pushed all the way back to the 60s. Gdamn HFT bastards. Well, I am not upset about holding my position. The market was quiet, it was the afternoon, you SHOULD take outs, but I felt it could grind lower.
Go look at NTRS now!!!! If only my stop were out another 4 or 5 cents. NTRS made a late day move down to my target. NTRS had $250 written all over it, I didn't get it the room the charts told me to.

Had a late day chop in SWSH. Bottom picked around 10, average price at 11 cents. Sold two thirds in the high 30s. The last third I bailed at the whole. The whole held, I bought 300 at four cents. Sold all 300 at 14. I'll take it.

I had absolutely no stress today, unlike other days. Turns out that chick is changing her mind. I get to wear my designer clothes to my other job now. Got a xanax scrip. There is a chance I get a promotion, so there is that "plan B" feeling in the back of my mind. I am in no rush to trade. I look forward to seeing how all these factors work into my psychology.

I had absolutely no stress or fear today.

I plan on trading Wednesday and Friday this week.

I'll stick with earnings, and try again.

Today, I made a huge mistake in BBBB. Buying highs TWICE. The news itself was sketchy. The ass selling at 50 was probably

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Today was more of a "welcome back to the market" sort of day. Tomorrow I'll have a running psychology going.


***
Good news, my commissions are being lowered
 

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4/20/11
Gross: +296
Shares: 10000
Net (w/ new rate): +241

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My pseudo-date last night went terribly, haha oh I suck. Anyway...

It is earnings season, so there are a lot of potential opportunities out there. I had forgotten how much action is out there. Friday and next week I plan on getting bigger. Earnings season is my bread and butter. The more stocks that report, the higher my chances are of finding good plays.

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Notable Trades:

1. Bought VMW at 95 this morning. OUCH. Lost 70 bucks in a minute. Silly of me.
2. Bought DLB which gapped up. I bought a pullback at around 47 as the MA's caught up. Worked well. Reached my targets. I liked the setup.
3. AJG - Bought 600 shares at 29.50. Gapped up, pulled in, then a seller held it down. Box had no down sweeps. Trade worked and reached my target.
4. Shorted TXT after it broke 25 at around 11 AM. It began to work. I wanted to let it try to run to lows. Got a wicked move against me. I had 300 shares.
5. DST Round 1 - Shorted at 49 as an earnings plays. I knew I had to get in before the whole broke, as it was a fairly thin stock. Gave 50 cents or so then pulled back. I added on the pullback. Stock broke the whole and stopped me out. Did not take outs. Target was 48.

DST Round 2 - Stayed with the stock. It formed an ascending triangle into 49. A refresher was holding it. I joined the seller. I was convicted. I got 300 shares in the 90s. Finally the trade turned in my favor. Sold a third at 50, held the rest. Wanted to get down to the next whole, that is what the charts told me. Got out in the low 20 cents. Wasn't enough time left in the day. This trade was my trade of the day. I had conviction and I held. My only regret was not adding as a seller prevented a pullback at 60 cents. I was going to add on the next sweep, but the next sweep gapped the stock down like 15-20 cents and I wasn't going to chase.

6. URI - URI is a backtested play of mine. Though, it was not an ideal setup. Anyway, shorted through lows after 10:30 a.m. I had 200 shares. Covered near 29 for about 40 cents or so. I did want to short the bounce. I do not remember why I didn't stay with it. These backtested plays usually present setups later. Gotta stick with em.

7. Did some correlation trading in the rails after UNP reported.

8. Got owned in CHK news. Also got owned on that TIVO news... I bought DISH.

9. Shorted RHT up at 48. Set my stop below highs. Agh!!!! I had that.

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So, a good day today, patience brings the trades you need. Give trades proper stops. It is earnings season time to step it up.
 

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