Snuskpelle's (kind of) Intraday Adventures 2019

Launched another semi-martingale, this time on NAS100USD (essentially same algo limited to 4x position sizing plus some volatility dependent position modulation), as that on backtest has been doing better this year than my other NQ algos. I already have a reasonably bearish position (long XAG/short XCU) so might as well balance it in case NQ keeps rising, which I don't find unreasonable. 10k sub-account, MDD set to 20% of that.

On a side note, I don't have that much margin for large intraday trades anymore, but given that I ended up with -1600 in August on that (plus some shit discretionary additions) it's not something I'm inclined to pursue with there being no lasting bear/high vol regime in sight. NAV up about $4k since year start at time of writing, don't want to state that in percent given the large deposits in the summer; around +18% if I had to guess. Expecting NAV to be a bit more volatile/excitement ahead since the new algos I'm launching effectively use margin more effectively.
 
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Intend to start shorting some bonds soon once there's concrete evidence of the sustained bond rally ending. While I only have access to gov bonds I am looking especially at the German 10Y as it doesn't take too much imagination to see that majorly tipping over given the chart. Only allowed 5x on bonds according to outdated ESMA rules still applied by CFD provider so need to spread it out over multiple sub-accs already running algos.
 
Turkish inflation on the way down, TRY on the way up. Missed my intended entry level as email from external notification service are somehow deleted by Gmail anti-spam, but better late than never so changed algo from sim to live on $6500 sub-acc. Probably will suffer some mean reversion due to undisciplined entry, but that's fine due to carry and expectation trend is up until Sep 12 rate decision.
 
Silver/copper trade doing well and now up more than $2k

NQ indecisive today. My hypothesis is we will be seeing ~8200ish within a few months (with some reversals in between). If that doesn't happen, well shit, I make money from the XAG/XCU trade.
 
Buy HK33HKD x 14 @ 25589 stop 24480

(About 1x leverage of acc, just putting this in the drawer for now, no fancy algo)

I am at risk of being overconfident due to good result since last week. Still getting the sense it's time to discard the bear attitude w.r.t. company valuation given rate cut times ahead until market proves me wrong.

Edit: Fixed stop
 
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Ok, HK33 position up 3.75% from purchase, nice. "Should have bought more", mr. Hindsight is speaking. Downside risk with that stop though was fairly extensive so fine... Copper up (i.e. bad) at the same time, but correlation with equities was expected.

Nearing $4k for September, a bit afraid this won't last.
 
Once again, shit day to be "afk" (well not entirely) and miss the fireworks. 4k unrealized MFE turned to 1.5k unrealized (mostly due to silver moving sharply down and copper up some)... Sure, was mulitasking and taskswitching watch acc falling one hundred at a time through afternoon; I basically not intervening as I intend to follow algo and had no context on news, but heck, the law of easy gains being easily dissipated holds as ever. Should be very careful about days I'm not in the saddle...
 
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