Snuskpelle's (kind of) Intraday Adventures 2019

Closed 108.03, 108 resisting so better enter tonight when Asia starts.

Will implement assistent stoploss vol calculation program in weekend potentially, most grievous losses past two weeks have been stops that (not much later) later reversed. Of course, potentially worse losses as stopped out, but e.g. short DAX stopout today was bad, repeated long NQ stopout last Friday even worse.
 
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Short ASX200AUD x -7 @ 5783 stop 5836.8

Expecting lackluster sentiment from yesterday with some mid term mean reversion. Also 5800 is nice number where a bounce happened in November. Going to bed, while I may trade in morning I won't be able to later in the day.
 
Going to bed went so-so, after staring at position where it switched between -10 and +60 EUR several times, I decided to close it at +60 (ASX200 @ 5778). Of course it finally fell through after that...

Realized Chinese CPI at 2.30 am so guess I should be awake by then anyway.

Side note, I lost most of the crude oil race recently after profit taking after initial spike. Need to get much better at re-entering advantageous trends. Watching crude price now is torture.
 
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Short USD/JPY x -75000 @ 107.92

Immediately closed for 15 EUR realized I'm starting to get too tired for a large position... besides I missed main spike it seems.
 
Immediately lost ~50 EUR on oversized (34 units) HK33HKD news trade. Entered with smaller one that I can actually keep around longer:

HK33HKD x -5 @ 26226 stop 26438
USD/CNH x 15000 @ 6.82

Just practicing position sizing on news in these, I have no strong conviction other than trend continuation. Going to close at -20 EUR in total.

Edit: Closed. NAV 17 720, playing is expensive.

Analysis: Too slow because of hesitation induced by playing with serious position size, trade risk while limited to 2% meant volatility was large compared to stop.
 
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Buy XAGUSD x 415 @ 15.7687 stop 15.23

Will either mean revert here in which case I will double position somewhere at 15.4-15.5 (now taking half of max risk) or continue up by breaking current ceiling. Don't wan't to be short stocks today but don't want to entirely miss out either (while AFK) in case we're approaching typical accelerating parabolic fall.
 
Sell USD/JPY x -100 000 @ 107.76 stop 108.26, weak enough

Edit: Could have gotten way better entry price by being patient or entering earlier in day as it turns out, responding to price alert while sleepy artifact. Still think market isn't too fond of a new low since flash crash recovery.
 
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USD/JPY got stopped. NAV 17345.

Not going to trade today, at this point I need to step back and analyze my behavior so far and come up with corrections for next week - I don't intend to go on a losing streak that ruins this account, if so I might as well switch to my normal trading for it. Will post extensive analysis in weekend.
 
Snuskpelle said:
USD/JPY got stopped. NAV 17345.

Not going to trade today, at this point I need to step back and analyze my behavior so far and come up with corrections for next week - I don't intend to go on a losing streak that ruins this account, if so I might as well switch to my normal trading for it. Will post extensive analysis in weekend.
More...


I hardly touch jpy over the past 1 to 2 years.

between 2008 and 2017, jpy was rather trendy.
There were lots of major BOJ news. So it was easier to earn money.

anyway all the best.
 
Analysis didn't happen this weekend, going to get started by Wednesday I hope.

Closed NATGAS position at 3.52, can't be assed to guess how high up it will go and upside is limited to at most double of the 17.3% profit caught I estimate. Could have easily doubled account if I had taken 100x more risk (lol no, natural gas after all). -.- NAV 17755, only Silver trade open now.
 
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