A daily, 3 month chart gives a good picture of SNDK's extended downtrend. Further, it seems to point to Friday's high (41.15) as the peak of its latest retracement, which falls well within the range that one might have expected. Come Monday morning, I think I'll take another bite out of SNDK.
I'd like to see the stock trade at or above 40 in the early hours in order to lock in a discount from Friday's close. I'll be looking for the stock to sell-off shortly thereafter, which would serve for me as tentative validation of a continued downtrend. Should it close in positive territory on Monday, then a sell-off on Tuesday would need to follow to keep me in the trade. I'd set a stop a bit higher than 41.15 (perhaps 0.10-0.20 points above), though if I plan to exit this trade, I'll cover earlier.
If SNDK does, in fact, begin to move lower, I'll be looking at 33.50-34.75 as the likely bottom, after which I'd expect another retracement. I arrived at this range by looking at the average of the last 4 lower lows relative to their predecessors (2.0725) as well as each one individually (0.96, 2.07, 2.19, 3.07). Really, it's more of an instinctive range with which the average made me more comfortable. An intraday low of 35.82 was reached on March 1.
At this point, I'm not entirely sure how I'm going to play this one. I'm considering a short position to start, which I may replace with April puts at 37.5 and/or 35 strike prices. The premiums seem low enough to warrant the move, though that could change in short order. Should I buy puts, it will probably be a combination of the above strike prices and I'd close when the stock is trading at the money. Again, I have not yet decided for certain.
Any thoughts???
I'd like to see the stock trade at or above 40 in the early hours in order to lock in a discount from Friday's close. I'll be looking for the stock to sell-off shortly thereafter, which would serve for me as tentative validation of a continued downtrend. Should it close in positive territory on Monday, then a sell-off on Tuesday would need to follow to keep me in the trade. I'd set a stop a bit higher than 41.15 (perhaps 0.10-0.20 points above), though if I plan to exit this trade, I'll cover earlier.
If SNDK does, in fact, begin to move lower, I'll be looking at 33.50-34.75 as the likely bottom, after which I'd expect another retracement. I arrived at this range by looking at the average of the last 4 lower lows relative to their predecessors (2.0725) as well as each one individually (0.96, 2.07, 2.19, 3.07). Really, it's more of an instinctive range with which the average made me more comfortable. An intraday low of 35.82 was reached on March 1.
At this point, I'm not entirely sure how I'm going to play this one. I'm considering a short position to start, which I may replace with April puts at 37.5 and/or 35 strike prices. The premiums seem low enough to warrant the move, though that could change in short order. Should I buy puts, it will probably be a combination of the above strike prices and I'd close when the stock is trading at the money. Again, I have not yet decided for certain.
Any thoughts???